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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 000470 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/MLS, NSC FOR WALTON 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/24/2020 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PINR CASC TH
SUBJECT: THAILAND: RED PLANS CRYSTALLIZE ON EVE OF THAKSIN 
FROZEN ASSETS JUDGMENT 
 
REF: A. BANGKOK 424 (ASSETS CASE) 
     ¶B. BANGKOK 384 (BANGKOK ON EDGE) 
     ¶C. BANGKOK 380 (STILL LOVE THAKSIN) 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Eric G. John, reason: 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
SUMMARY AND COMMENT 
-------------------- 
 
¶1. (C) The Thai Supreme Court will issue the much anticipated 
verdict in the Thaksin assets case February 26.  The judgment 
itself remains an unknown, with most contacts anticipating 
either a partial or full seizure of the frozen 76 billion 
baht (more than $2 billion).  However, the Thaksin-affiliated 
United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (aka the "red 
shirts" or UDD) publicly announced February 24 that, 
regardless of the decision, protesters would begin descending 
upon Bangkok on March 12, with the protest expected to peak 
on March 14.  The UDD's stated objective for the rally 
remained the same: to force the government to dissolve 
parliament and call for new elections.  Red shirt core 
leaders hope that by holding the rally more than two weeks 
after the verdict, they may blunt efforts to paint the 
movement as singularly focused on Thaksin and his assets. 
Meanwhile, the UDD leadership announced they would not 
organize any protests in the immediate wake of tomorrow's 
judgment, though small scale red-shirt protests at the court 
and in other spots in Bangkok seemed likely to take place on 
Friday, February 26, as well as over the weekend.  Our 
internal and consular guidance continues to advise vigilance 
and caution. 
 
¶2. (C) Comment: Despite Super-Bowl like hype and anticipation 
about the court verdict, there is very little evidence to 
suggest there will be pandemonium and chaos in the streets of 
Bangkok in the immediate wake of the judgment.  With red 
shirt protest plans now apparently locked-in for mid-March, 
the judgment seems poised to have its most immediate impact 
on the size and energy of the scheduled protest.  The UDD 
publicly sticks to a stated goal of up to one million people, 
fueled by 100,000 pick-ups descending on Bangkok, but UDD 
estimates are notoriously inflated;  100,000 protesters 
appears to be a more realistic goal. 
 
¶3. (C) Comment, cont: Chaturon Chaisang, a former DPM and 
close cohort of Thaksin's, told us February 25 that 
generating a large crowd mid-March would be easier if the 
court opted to strip Thaksin of all 76 billion baht.  On the 
other hand, a partial return of the frozen assets would 
complicate efforts to mobilize massive numbers of people to 
travel to Bangkok.  While no one has been willing to rule out 
the possibility of isolated incidents of violence after the 
ruling tomorrow, earlier fears about post-ruling rioting have 
largely given way to expectations of a relatively measured 
and low-key reaction February 26.  What happens mid-March 
will likely be determined by the post-verdict reaction of key 
players, including Thaksin, red-shirt leaders, the 
government, and security officials.  End Summary and Comment. 
 
THE VERDICT 
----------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) On February 26 the Supreme Court will determine 
whether fugitive former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra 
intentionally concealed his assets while PM, whether he used 
the power of his office to artificially inflate the value of 
his Shin Corporation stockholdings, and whether to seize some 
or all of the approximately 73 billion baht (now worth more 
than 76 billion baht with interest) frozen by the RTG 
following the 2006 coup (REF A).  The court is scheduled to 
begin reading the verdict -- which will include a lengthy 
recap of both the defense and prosecution's arguments -- 
around 1400 Bangkok time, with some analysts suggesting this 
process could take in excess of four hours. 
 
¶5. (C) Informal soundings with contacts from across the 
political spectrum suggest that the court will either seize 
all of the assets, or a sizeable portion.  Core red shirt 
leader Veera Musikapong told us on February 23 at UDD 
 
BANGKOK 00000470  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
headquarters that he fully expected the Supreme Court would 
seize all of the assets, a position backed by former Foreign 
Minister Prasong Sunsiri (a yellow-shirt supporter) and many 
others.  Niphon Promphan, a trusted advisor of Crown Prince 
Vajiralongkorn and former Secretary-General for Prime 
Minister Abhisit, told us February 24 in contrast that he 
believed the Court would seize two thirds of the assets, 
thereby restoring to Thaksin the amount he entered office 
with. 
 
THE LIKELY REACTION 
------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) Red shirt leaders have maintained for several weeks 
now that they do not have any plans to protest in the 
immediate wake of the verdict.  Veera reiterated this 
position February 23, telling us that the UDD had decided to 
put some distance between the reading of the verdict and 
their mass rally.  He did note, however, that the "Red Siam" 
faction, which has parted ways with the UDD, had called on 
supporters to protest in front of the court February 26; 
Special Branch police sources predicted 2000-3000 may rally. 
Sunai from Human Rights Watch told us February 25 that Udon 
Thani province red shirt baron Kwanchai Phraipana (REF C) was 
already mobilizing red shirt supporters to come to Bangkok 
for the verdict.  RTG spokesperson Dr. Panitan Wattanayakorn 
told us February 25 the RTG would leave nothing to chance, 
and would stand up a command center at the court ready to 
deal with any eventuality, with three police anti-riot 
companies, an EOD squad, and ten companies in reserve. 
Panitan also cautioned not to take the red shirts at their 
word, telling us he did not necessarily trust that the red 
shirts would delay their rally until mid-March. 
 
RED PLANS 
--------- 
 
¶7. (C) On February 24, following a red shirt planning 
session, the UDD leadership announced the red shirts would 
stage their much-hyped "Million Man March" beginning March 
12, with crowds poised to peak on March 14.  The plan called 
for UDD activities to commence on the provincial level 
immediately, with local UDD and Puea Thai political party 
leaders given specific recruiting targets they would be 
obligated to meet as part of the overall push to rally one 
million supporters in Bangkok on March 14.  The UDD confirmed 
once again that its objective was to compel the government to 
dissolve parliament and call for new elections.  UDD 
spokesmen repeated what Veera told us: the plan was for 
100,000 pick-up trucks with supporters to flood Bangkok, 
shutting down key intersections and attempting to bring down 
the government. 
 
¶8. (C) Having repeatedly scheduled and cancelled rally plans 
with the frequency of a runway model changing outfits, 
questions have begun to surface about the UDD's ability to 
mount the so-called "Showdown Rally."  The repeated 
cancellations, coupled with persistent rumors about UDD 
financing problems, rifts among its leadership factions, 
waning enthusiasm for the movement, as well the RTG's 
successful use of the Internal Security Act to deal with red 
protests, had contributed to an overall sense that perhaps 
the UDD's best days were behind it.  Now, having finally 
fixed the protest date and announced plans to topple the 
government through the combined pressure of the largest group 
of red clad supporters since last April, paradoxically the 
pressure is on the UDD to try and back up its strong words. 
 
¶9. (U) Our internal and consular guidance remains the same: 
pay attention to events, avoid demonstrations, and use good 
judgment. 
JOHN