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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 000414 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/18/2020 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF TH
SUBJECT: ADMIRAL WILLARD'S VISIT TO THAILAND: POLITICAL 
PROGRESS EXPECTED 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Eric G. John, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary.  During U.S. Pacific Command Commander 
Admiral Robert Willard's February 2-7 visit to Thailand in 
conjunction with the multilateral Cobra Gold exercise, Thai 
officials and political commentators expressed optimism that 
Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva would be able to effectively 
address domestic political conflict, and would do well in 
elections that must be held by the end of 2011.  Panitan 
Wattanayagorn, Deputy Secretary General for Security Issues 
for Prime Minister Abhisit, said that the RTG would like to 
lessen the internal security role of the Thai Army and 
increase the relative influence of the Air Force and Navy, 
but border concerns and domestic political challenges made it 
necessary for now to maintain a strong role for the Army. 
End summary. 
 
¶2. (C) During the February 2-7 visit, Admiral Willard and the 
Ambassador met with Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, Defense 
Minister Prawit Wongsuwan, Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya, 
and Royal Thai Armed Chief of Defense Forces General 
Songkitti Jaggabatra.  In addition, Admiral Willard and the 
Ambassador engaged Royal Thai Army (RTA) Commander General 
Anupong Paojinda and RTA Deputy Commander General Prayuth 
Chan-ocha, Deputy Secretary General for Prime Minister 
Abhisit and Acting RTG Spokesperson Dr. Panitan 
Wattanayagorn, CP Group Executive Vice President and former 
high-ranking Thai diplomat Dr. Sarasin Viraphol, and 
Assistant Group Editor of the Nation Multimedia Group Kavi 
Chongkittavorn. 
 
SECURITY PREPARATIONS FOR POSSIBLE PROTESTS 
----------------------------------------Q.@cQ fugitive former Prime 
Minister Thaksin Shinawatra would fade over the year.  During 
a February 5 meeting with Admiral Willard and the Ambassador 
at Government House, PM Abhisit said it was a busy time for 
his government, with internal distractions that included 
economic, social, and political difficulties.  That said, the 
RTG was working hard to overcome these challenges so that 
Thailand could become an anchor of stability in Southeast 
Asia. 
 
¶4. (C) Separately February 5, Admiral Willard raised with 
Defense Minister Prawit Wongsuwan the planned February 26 
reading of the verdict in the court case of Thaksin's 76 
billion baht ($2.2 billion) in frozen assets, and asked for 
Prawit's views on predictions that red-shirt protests could 
turn violent.  Prawit said that the RTG was committed to 
maintaining security and stability, but would use force only 
as a last resort.  In the meantime, the Abhisit government 
was endeavoring to increase the Thai public's understanding 
of the case, particularly with the "silent majority" that 
wanted the nation to move beyond the yellow and red protests. 
 
 
¶5. (C) Dr. Panitan told Admiral Willard during a February 5 
coffee hosted by the Ambassador that the court case came as 
the Thai public was moving from political non-participation 
to a much more active role.  This made governing more 
challenging, but the RTG was focused for now on defusing 
political problems in Bangkok associated with the upcoming 
verdict.  PM Abhisit would focus on outreach to rural areas 
later this year, Panitan predicted, and Abhisit's efforts 
were expected to be helped by an improving economy. 
 
¶6. (C) Kavi Chongkittavorn, Assistant Group Editor of the 
Nation Multimedia Group, added during the coffee that the RtQV|C1Qty challenge 
would be 
successfully handled by the Abhisit administration, after 
which the government would turn its focus to improving the 
 
BANGKOK 00000414  002 OF 002 
 
 
situation in the South. 
 
PREDICTION THAT ABHISIT WILL STAY LONGER 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (C) Kavi told Admiral Willard that he believed PM Abhisit 
had been very impressive in office.  Abhisit was a new breed 
of Thai politician: intelligent; liked to multi-task; and 
enjoyed tackling difficult challenges.  While most Thai 
journalists did not look kindly on Abhisit, due to the Prime 
Minister maintaining higher standards of personal conduct 
than past Thai leaders (including vis-a-vis journalists 
themselves), Kavi insisted that the Thai leader was right for 
Thailand, as he provided for stability that other politicians 
were incapable of maintaining.  Stability was important as 
Thailand moved towards transitions, such as royal succession, 
therefore Kavi expected Abhisit to remain in office for the 
foreseeable future.  Kavi predicted Abhisit's Democrat Party 
would do well in the next election -- to be held by the end 
of 2011 -- and would be able to form the next government. 
 
¶8. (C) Kavi told Admiral Willard that the Thai Army firmly 
supported Abhisit, both because he was better suited to 
maintain stability than other politicians, and because the 
Prime Minister gave clear orders and was willing to accept 
responsibility for the consequences for the orders.  That 
said, Kavi admitted that in order for Abhisit to solidify his 
standing, he would need to learn how to better reach out to 
rural Thais, particularly those from the Northeast who were 
the primary supporters of Thaksin and the red-shirt movement. 
 
FUTURE ROLE OF THE THAI MILITARY 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (C) Panitan told Admiral Willard that the RTG eventually 
would like to move the Royal Thai Army (RTA) away from a 
domestic security role, but that the limited crowd and riot 
control capabilities of the Royal Thai Police (RTP) made 
achieving this goal difficult and long-term.  Panitan 
reviewed for Admiral Willard the internal Thai government 
deliberations during the April 2009 redshirt riots in Pattaya 
and Bangkok, and stressed that it had become very clear to 
the Thai government that the RTP was incapable of maintaining 
domestic security.  As such, PM Abhisit was forced to turn to 
the RTA to counter the red-shirt protesters and to preserve 
security in Bangkok.  According to Panitan, the Army had told 
Abhisit that they were willing to leave the barracks for this 
purpose, but that the PM would need to make clear that this 
had been a government decision.  Abhisit readily agreed to 
take responsibility for this action. 
 
¶10. (C) In response to Admiral Willard's question about the 
relative influence and power among the Thai armed services, 
Panitan said it would be ideal to enhance the role of the 
Thai Air Force and Navy.  However, border concerns and 
domestic security priorities made it imperative for the time 
being that the Thai Army remained foremost among the armed 
services. 
 
¶11. (C) That said, Panitan said the Abhisit administration 
Q 
~ations Command (ISOC).  (Note: ISOC has 
become the lead mechanism for implementation of the Internal 
Security Act, which has been the primary avenue for efforts 
to maintain security in the South, Bangkok, and other areas. 
End note.)  Providing ISOC with more civilians would 
hopefully lead to a lesser military role in maintaining 
internal security.  Panitan also remarked that modernizing 
RTAF equipment was difficult due to budget constraints. 
Admiral Willard suggested to Panitan that considering budget 
constraints, a strategic approach to procurements would be 
helpful.  Full participation in the Defense Resource 
Management Study was one avenue to assist such an approach. 
 
¶12. (U) Admiral Willard cleared this cable. 
JOHN