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DE RUEHBK #0384/01 0470920
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 160920Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY BANGKOK
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INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS PRIORITY
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO PRIORITY 2376
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING PRIORITY 8039
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL PRIORITY 6223
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY 0453
RUEHCHI/AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI PRIORITY 7651
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI PRIORITY
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 000384 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/MLS, NSC FOR WALTON 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/16/2020 
TAGS: PREL PGOV TH
SUBJECT: THAILAND: BANGKOK ON EDGE FOLLOWING BOMB SCARE, 
GRENADE EXPLOSION 
 
REF: BANGKOK 00362 (EAP DAS MARCIEL ENGAGES RED-SHIRT 
     LEADERS) 
 
BANGKOK 00000384  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Classified By: DCM JAMES F. ENTWISTLE, REASON 1.4 (B) AND (D) 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: With Bangkok already tense following weeks 
of small-scale anti-government protests, two bombing 
incidents over the weekend served to further heighten 
anxieties in Thailand's capital.  Late in the evening on 
February 13, a grenade exploded at a college near Government 
House with no casualties reported.  Early the next morning, 
authorities safely neutralized a bomb planted on the grounds 
of the Supreme Court.  Given the targets involved, as well as 
the fact that both incidents took place with less than two 
weeks remaining until the February 26 Supreme Court verdict 
in former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's assets case, 
speculation about possible perpetrators focused almost 
immediately on violent elements associated with the United 
Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD, or 
"red-shirts").  RTG authorities announced they did not have 
any solid leads in either case, while UDD officials denied 
involvement in either incident.  Meanwhile, the UDD declared 
that it would not stage a major rally before the February 26 
court date, while the government -- leaving nothing to chance 
-- nevertheless took steps to increase security at key 
locations throughout Bangkok. 
 
¶2. (C) Comment: In all likelihood, the levels of tension and 
rhetoric will continue to rise in the lead-up to the February 
26 court decision.  While red shirt core leaders have 
explicitly renounced violence as a tactic on the one hand, 
Thaksin's recent Dubai summit with red shirt agitators such 
as Seh Daeng raised legitimate questions about the movement's 
true intentions moving forward.  Regardless of who actually 
carried out the attempted attacks over the weekend, the mere 
fact that a powerful bomb was placed directly in front of the 
Supreme Court less than two weeks before that same Court 
renders a verdict in Thaksin's assets case will only raise 
more questions and further heighten tensions.  End Summary 
and Comment. 
 
ACCUSATIONS, DENIALS ABOUND 
--------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) Police reported that an M-79 grenade exploded at a 
technical college adjacent to Government House late at night 
on February 13.  No one was harmed by the explosion, which 
authorities claimed was directed at Government House rather 
than the school.  Pol. Lt. Colonel Kumton Aaiucharon, Chief 
of the EOD unit, said the M-79 appeared to be launched at the 
Rajmangla University of Technology, but the perpetrators 
could have just been incapable and untrained and intended it 
for the Government House.  The following day, security forces 
found and disarmed a device containing 2.5 pounds of C-4 
explosive on the grounds of the Supreme Court.  The device 
was wired to a Casio F20 digital wrist watch, a small 12-volt 
battery, and a detonation cap, according to Pol. Lt. Colonel 
Kumton.  It was found at the rear inner fence of the Supreme 
Court, not near the building.  Had the device detonated, 
there could have been serious injuries or deaths if people 
were near.  There were 2 safety switches on the bomb and they 
do not appear to have been set to "on," however.  Police said 
this could again be lack of skill or just a symbolic gesture 
by whoever put the bomb together to demonstrate that they 
have real explosives.  There were no claims of responsibility 
for either incident. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Most of the public speculation about the two 
incidents hewed closely to two basic theories: either the 
red-shirts were trying to bully the government and judiciary 
prior to the February 26 verdict in Thaksin's case, or the 
government itself was the perpetrator and was trying to blame 
the UDD.  The latter theory, according to red-shirt 
supporters, created a pretext to increase security measures 
and lock down the red-shirts before the so-called "final 
confrontation," a long awaited and repeatedly delayed mass 
rally designed to dissolve the current government.  RTG 
authorities announced that they had no leads in either case 
at this stage. 
 
BANGKOK 00000384  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶5. (C) Thaksin's attorney, Noppadon Pattana, denied that the 
fugitive former prime minister had anything to do with either 
incident.  Similarly, key red-shirt agitator MGEN Khattiya 
Sawasdiphol -- better known as Seh Daeng -- likewise denied 
any involvement in either event, claiming that if he had been 
behind either incident, he would have announced it before 
carrying it out.  Sunai Phasuk, a researcher for Human Rights 
Watch, told us he was convinced that people connected to 
Thaksin were responsible for the bombs, and added that the 
government would definitely use the attempted attacks to try 
and discredit the UDD. 
 
GOVERNMENT RESPONSE: UP SECURITY, BUT NO ISA...YET 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Meanwhile, the government responded to the weekend's 
events by putting security forces on a higher level of alert 
and setting up checkpoints and police patrols in key parts of 
Bangkok. Following a meeting of key security officials, 
including Deputy Prime Minister for security affairs Suthep 
Thaugsuban and Army commander GEN Anupong Paochinda, the RTG 
announced that it would not yet invoke the Internal Security 
Act (ISA), following a determination that the heightened 
security measures would suffice for the time being.  Security 
officials also agreed to establish a committee chaired by DPM 
Suthep to monitor events and quickly implement necessary 
measures for as long as events warranted. 
 
UDD TO HOLD OFF ON PROTEST 
-------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Consistent with the message the UDD's top strategist 
Veera Musigapong relayed to us on February 10 (REFTEL), core 
leader Jatuporn Promphan told protestors assembled in front 
of the Election Commission on February 15 that the UDD would 
not organize a formal rally before or on February 26, a 
message Veera reiterated on February 16.  Individuals, 
however, had the right to demonstrate on that date, both UDD 
figures said.  Meanwhile, Jatuporn claimed to have a document 
proving that the government intended to instigate violence at 
the next rally, and promised to reveal the contents of the 
document to the public on February 16.  DPM Suthep said the 
government was prepared to deal with expected protests as the 
court date approached, but he denied the RTG had any plans to 
provoke anti-government demonstrators. 
JOHN