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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 000362 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/MLS, NSC FOR WALTON 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/10/2020 
TAGS: PREL PGOV TH
SUBJECT: THAILAND: EAP DAS MARCIEL ENGAGES RED-SHIRT 
LEADERS ON DOMESTIC POLITICAL ISSUES 
 
REF: A. BANGKOK 340 (CRACKS IN RED-SHIRT CAMP) 
     ¶B. BANGKOK 227 (DEMOCRATS OPPOSE CHARTER CHANGES) 
     ¶C. BANGKOK 149 (RED-SHIRT LEADERS TELL GOALS) 
 
BANGKOK 00000362  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Classified By: DCM JAMES F. ENTWISTLE, REASON 1.4 (B) AND (D) 
 
¶1. (U) Summary: EAP Deputy Assistant Secretary Scot Marciel 
met separately with the top strategists of the United Front 
for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD, or "red-shirts") and 
a group which included PM deputy SecGen and Acting Government 
Spokesman Panitan on February 10 to discuss the state of play 
in Thai politics in the run-up to the red-shirt's promised 
"final battle" to oust the Abhisit government.  Chief UDD 
leader Veera Musikapong reiterated the standard red-shirt 
list of complaints against the government, along with demands 
for new elections and a reversion to the 1997 Constitution. 
He also indicated that the red-shirts will now likely 
schedule their main protest after the expected February 26 
court decision on fugitive former PM Thaksin's frozen assets. 
 For his part, Panitan expressed the government's resolve to 
take prudent measures to contain possible violence by 
pro-Thaksin actors in the coming weeks.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (C) Comment: The delay in the red-shirt plans for their 
promised massive anti-government rally appears to reflect 
disarray in the wake of the public disagreement between 
pro-Thaksin figures over tactics, with UDD core leaders at 
odds with pro-Thaksin agitators MGEN Panlop and MGEN 
Khattiya, aka Seh Daeng (refs A, C).  The disagreements and 
delay do not, however, change the potential for mass protests 
and violence, only shift the time window for concern.  End 
Comment. 
 
RED AGENDA THE SAME 
------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) EAP DAS Scot Marciel met with core UDD leaders Veera 
Musikapong and Jaran Ditapichai, as well as UDD deputy 
international coordinator Sean Boonprakong, February 10 to 
discuss the red-shirt movement's plans for holding what they 
claimed would be peaceful demonstrations to oust the 
government headed by Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva. 
Speaking before the arrival of Veera, Jaran said he 
personally expected about 400,000 people in their next "final 
battle," though Veera aspired to 1 million.  The primary goal 
was to oust the government; the wider goal was to eliminate 
the "aristocracy" holding the country back.  DAS Marciel 
asked how UDD leaders planned to avoid the violence that 
plagued the April 2009 red-shirt protests; Jaran vowed that 
if the RTG did not resort to violence, neither would the 
red-shirts. 
 
¶4. (C) Veera reviewed the recent spate of small, concentrated 
UDD demonstrations in the past week: the Defense Ministry and 
Army HQ to protest a potential coup; the Office of Attorney 
General and Police HQ to protest lack of progress against the 
yellow-shirt take-overs of the airport and Government House 
in 2008 and land violation cases by Privy Councilors.  The 
primary "double standards" theme, combined with the need to 
dissolve parliament and restore the 1997 Constitution, echoed 
Veera's remarks to the Ambassador in January (REF C).  Veera 
claimed Thaksin's frozen assets case was no more important 
than the other UDD grievances, though he later acknowledged 
the timing of the major protest would hinge on the result of 
the February 26 decision. Regardless of how the court ruled 
on Thaksin's assets, he vowed the UDD would continue to 
pressure PM Abhisit to dissolve parliament and call new 
elections. 
 
GOVERNMENT FEAR OF VIOLENCE UNFOUNDED 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) DAS Marciel asked Veera to explain the recent news 
about plans to create a pro-Thaksin "people's army" (REF A). 
  The UDD espoused peaceful means of changing the government, 
Veera stressed, while admitting that pro-Thaksin figures 
Panlop and Seh Daeng made their unfortunate announcement 
after meeting with Thaksin in Dubai.  Puea Thai party 
chairman Chavalit Yongchaiyut and UDD leaders distanced 
 
BANGKOK 00000362  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
themselves from the idea and agitators.  The presence of two 
high-profile UDD figures, Arisman and Rambo Isaan, in the 
Dubai session with Panlop, Seh Daeng, and Thaksin had led to 
a heated UDD meeting February 9, Veera claimed he had 
chastised the two UDD members and told them that if they 
advocated violence they would have to leave the UDD. 
 
¶6. (C) Veera alleged the government was trying to paint the 
red-shirt movement as non-peaceful to create a pretext to 
crush it; the UDD would rise or fall on its ability to remain 
peaceful, he stated.  Referencing the April violence, he 
claimed pro-government "blue shirts" had instigated violence 
at the ASEAN Summit in Pattaya, burned the busses and 
threatened to blow up natural gas trucks in Bangkok, and that 
the government-controlled media and stifled evidence of such 
provocations.  He expressed hope that if the UDD achieved its 
goal of 1 million protesters, the government would back away 
from confrontation and accede to red-shirt demands for new 
elections. 
 
U.S. CONCERNED ABOUT THAILAND 
----------------------------- 
 
¶7. (C) DAS Marciel emphasized that the American people cared 
deeply about the Thai people and Thailand.  We understood the 
country faced deep internal disagreement, but this was a 
matter for the Thai people to resolve themselves.  The U.S. 
would be careful not to intervene, supported the right of 
people to demonstrate and express their views freely, but 
were concerned about the potential for violence, including 
military intervention.  The perception of Thailand from afar 
was one of worry after four years of impasse; over time, this 
situation hurt Thailand's image and interests. 
 
PANITAN, OTHERS CONCERNED ABOUT RED PLANS 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (C) In a group lunch dominated by discussion foreign 
policy issues (septel), PM deputy SecGen and Acting 
Government Spokesman Panitan Wattanayakorn shared his 
perspectives on the government's efforts to prepare for the 
upcoming red-shirt protests.  Repeating allegations that made 
headlines in the February 10 Thai media, Panitan claimed that 
three pro-Thaksin intermediaries recently received huge 
monetary infusions to fund the protests, "one woman and two 
businessmen-politicians."  He claimed the hard core 
pro-Thaksin agitators were ready for action before and after 
the expected court decision, and regardless of the outcome. 
That was the reason why the authorities had begun 
preparations to control the situation, including plans for 
multiple road blocks in Bangkok and actions in certain 
provincial districts. 
 
¶9. (C) Human Rights Watch's Sunai Phasuk expressed concern 
about the situation in Chiang Mai in particular, suggesting 
violence might break out there before Bangkok in the 
immediate aftermath of the February 26 court decision, were 
it to go against Thaksin.  Sunai fingered red community radio 
DJ "Aom" as particularly effective at instigating 
violent-prone crowds on as short notice as 20-30 minutes, 
along with Chiang Mai 51 red-shirt leader Patcharawat.  He 
noted how red-shirts had recently surrounded and started 
attacking the house of former Senator Chirmsak, as well as 
the late 2008 incident in which a red mob had lynched the 
father of a yellow-shirt community radio station owner in 
front of the station. 
 
DAS Marciel did not clear this cable. 
JOHN