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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 000281 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/MLS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/03/2020 
TAGS: PREL PGOV TH
SUBJECT: THAILAND: MINORITY COALITION PARTNERS SUBMIT 
CHARTER CHANGE PROPOSAL 
 
REF: BANGKOK 227: DEMOCRATS OPPOSE CHARTER CHANGES 
 
BANGKOK 00000281  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Classified By: POL Counselor George Kent, REASON 1.4 (B, D) 
 
¶1. (U) Summary: The five junior partners in the ruling 
government coalition moved forward February 3 with filing a 
motion to change two provisions of the constitution, while 
continuing to profess their commitment to the coalition.  The 
partners seek to alter the articles in the constitution that 
deal with the parliamentary electoral system -- the key 
sticking point between the Democrat Party and its junior 
partners -- as well as parliamentary oversight of 
international agreements (reftel).  In order to pass the 
single proposed motion, the coalition partners would have to 
enlist the support of either the Democrat Party, which has 
already rejected the proposal, or the opposition Puea Thai 
party, which refuses to support anything short of a full 
return to the 1997 Constitution.  Neither party seems likely 
to support the proposal in the near-term. 
 
¶2. (C) Comment: Some political observers have interpreted 
this move by the government's junior partners as a sign of 
deepening fissures within the coalition.  Our soundings 
suggest this analysis is overly alarmist.  The decision to 
move forward more likely represents an effort to keep the 
proposed move to single district constituencies -- a key 
strategic goal for smaller parties -- on life support. 
Several of members of the coalition, led most notably by 
Phumjai Thai (PJT), have concluded that the Democrat Party 
may ultimately come to realize that altering the system of 
selecting seats is in their own strategic best interests. 
Until the Democrats come to this conclusion, however, this 
proposal is unlikely to advance.  As for the immediate future 
of the government, despite public rumblings from members of 
the coalition parties about promises made and broken, Abhisit 
Vejjajiva's government appears poised to withstand the 
no-confidence motion planned by the opposition for later this 
month or March.  End Summary and Comment. 
 
FILING JUST THE FIRST STEP 
-------------------------- 
 
¶3. (U) The five junior coalition parties -- Phumjai Thai 
(PJT), Chart Thai Pattana (CTP), Puea Phaendin, Ruam Jai Thai 
Chat Pattana, and the Social Action Party -- filed a single 
motion with House Speaker Chai Chidchob on February 3 to 
amend the constitution.  The motion would adjust two separate 
articles in the constitution.  The first proposed amendment, 
to Article 94, would change the electoral system from 
multi-seat to single-seat constituencies, a move that most 
experts believe would benefit smaller parties in 
parliamentary elections.  The second proposal, which also 
enjoys the support of the Democrat Party, would change 
Article 190 to clarify which international agreements needed 
parliamentary approval. 
 
¶4. (U) According to the current constitution, from a 
procedural standpoint, all amendments must pass three 
readings.  In the first instance, at least one-third of the 
members of both the House (474 MPs currently) and the Senate 
(150 members) must support the initial reading of the 
amendment.  A simple majority is required for the second 
reading.  A simple majority in both chambers is also required 
for the last reading, though in this case voting is open and 
done by roll-call.  Any amendment that passes all three 
readings is then submitted to the King for his endorsement. 
 
MATH BEHIND THE MADNESS? 
------------------------ 
 
¶5. (SBU) With only 95 MPs combined, the junior partners lack 
sufficient numbers to pass even the first reading, let alone 
the second and third.  Even with enough senators to secure a 
successful first reading, either the Democrat Party or Puea 
Thai would have to switch gears and support the proposed 
charter change for it to succeed ultimately.  The lack of 
coalition unity on the amendment proposal, coupled with the 
prospect of a Puea Thai driven no-confidence debate in the 
coming weeks, have led some pundits to openly question the 
 
BANGKOK 00000281  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
junior partners' collective commitment to Abhisit's 
government. 
 
¶6. (C) Inside views differ, however.  Senior PJT MP and party 
spokesperson Supachai Jaisamut told us January 27 that the 
coalition partners separated executive and legislative branch 
matters and did not actually plan on trying to leverage the 
looming no-confidence debate to force Democrat party support 
for the charter change initiative.  Supachai acknowledged 
that none of the coalition parties had any desire to see new 
elections this year.  Instead, he claimed the plan was to 
table the amendment motion and "go slow" until the Democrats 
came to their senses about electoral math realities for the 
next election cycle. 
 
¶7. (C) Supachai argued that the Democrats were already at 
their peak electoral strength, and the only way the DP could 
achieve a plurality was by subtracting seats from PT (which 
currently has the largest caucus, 189 to DP's 173).  With 
single MP districts, smaller parties like PJT would be able 
to score victories in the populous northeast (Isaan), taking 
seats away from Puea Thai, the only competitor to the DP for 
numeric supremacy in parliament.  Democrat SecGen Suthep 
understood this reality of what it would take for the 
Democrats to achieve a plurality in the next election and 
earn the right to form the next government, Supachai 
assessed, but other Democrat heavyweights had not. 
JOHN