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FM AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD
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C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 000519 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/28/2011 
TAGS: IZ PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: PRT MAYSAN: IRAQI NATIONAL ALLIANCE POISED FOR 
DECISIVE WIN IN MAYSAN, WHICH COULD BRING NEW PROVINCIAL 
ALIGNMENT 
 
REF: 10 BAGHDAD 442 
 
Classified By: PRT Maysan Team Leader Steve Banks for reasons 1.4(b) an 
d (d). 
 
(U) This is a Maysan Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) 
reporting cable. 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY AND COMMENT: Well-respected local political 
observers predict that Iraqi National Alliance (INA) 
candidates may capture seven of Maysan,s ten Council of 
Representative (COR) seats.  Provincial INA leaders 
successfully exploited  anti-Ba'athist sentiment, appeared 
strong in the aftermath of  the recent raid on Ali al-Sharqi, 
and are running locally prominent candidates for office.  An 
expected high turnout may also help the INA.  The State of 
Law Alliance (SLA), with its slate of lesser-known 
candidates, will struggle despite significant support from 
local tribal sheiks.  INA momentum may even be enough to 
drive the SLA governor from office after the election.  END 
SUMMARY AND COMMENT. 
Election Dynamics in Maysan 
¶2.  (C) PRToffs meet regularly with Maysani political 
veterans Abbas Aish and Majid Bani of the Towards Democracy 
(TD) NGO, a regular U.S. grantee.  In a February 18 
conversation, Aish and Bani argued that the Iraqi National 
Alliance (INA) positioned itself well to take political 
advantage of the combined IA-USF raids on Ali al Sharqi (REF 
A) and the recent protests against the Ba'athist Party. 
(NOTE: INA politicians have been conspicuously present at 
anti-Ba'athist rallies in Amarah and at funerals in Ali al 
Sharqi END NOTE).  Aish and Bani forecast a higher turnout 
than in the 2009 Provincial Council elections because of a 
recent public call to vote from both Grand Ayatollah Ali 
al-Sistani and Ayatollah Ayat Bashir  al-Najafi in Najaf and 
a notable increase in the number of polling places.  They 
predicted that the SLA might run into trouble in Maysan, with 
the exception of Sheik Mohammed Saldoun Alsudani, because 
they do not have very many high profile candidates.. 
A New Provincial Governor? 
¶3.  (C) Aish and Bani hypothesize that if INA wins a crushing 
electoral success it could later lead to the ouster of the 
current SLA-Da,wagovernor.  Ahmed Salah, an aide to PC 
Chairman Abd al-Hussain Abd al-Ridha (Islamic Supreme Council 
of Iraq-ISCI), also foreshadowed the governor being replaced 
by an INA member, unless perhaps the governor's shifts his 
allegiance to the INA.  They told PRToffs that a new Prime 
Minister in Baghdad and subsequent personnel changes at the 
national ministries and local Maysan directorates could 
result in a political shift at the provincial level.  The 
current Maysan Provincial Council is composed of 19 INA 
members (ISCI,Sadrist Trend, National Reform Trend) out of a 
total 27 members.  A political humiliation at the national 
and/or local level could embolden the council to find 
pretexts to impeach the governor -- believing they would get 
the necessary support from an INA-led government in Baghdad 
to seal the deal -- and replace him with someone from their 
camp. 
 
Tribal Sheiks Stick Mostly with SLA 
¶4.  (C) Echoing Aish and Bani, on February 22 Al Huda NGO 
Director Haider Al-Battat noted to PRToffs that a winning 
combination in Maysan politics is the fusion of tribal 
sheiks' candidates with strong political party backing. 
(NOTE: Al Huda co-founder Hussein Chaloub is an 
INA/NRTcandidate in Maysan. END NOTE.) According to Battat, 
SLA enjoys the direct or indirect backing of three 
significant tribal sheiks.  Sheik Saldoun of the al Sudani 
tribe (a relative of Maysan Governor Mohammed Shi'a 
al-Sudani, SLA) seeks to exploit his tribal stature to win 
election on the SLA slate.  He hopes to follow the examples 
Qelection on the SLA slate.  He hopes to follow the examples 
of Sheik Mohammed Abbas (head of the albu-Mohammed tribe) in 
the 2005 COR elections, and of Sheik Sabah Mahdi al-Saedi 
(NRT), in the 2009 Provincial Council elections.  Sheik 
Mohammed Abbas (SLA), the current acting GOI Chairman of 
Tourism and Antiquities in Baghdad, is not running for the 
COR, but has thrown his political support behind his niece, 
Mayada Faisal Almahamadawi, banner SLA/Da,wa candidate.  In 
another example of tribal support, Sheik Saadoun Ghulan Ali 
(tribal leader of the Maysan side of the Beni Lam tribe and 
SLA) is throwing his support behind his younger brother Sami, 
also with the SLA.  (COMMENT:  Not all Maysani tribal sheiks 
have the personal power and influence to sway large numbers 
of their tribe members' votes, but the ones mentioned here 
are numbered among those who probably can.  Rural voters are 
deemed more likely than urban dwellers to vote according to 
their sheiks' views -- partly because sheiks' de facto sway 
over land rights and other ingredients of rural life make 
them more directly influential in the livelihoods of farm 
villagers than that of their urban cousins.  END cOMMENT.) 
Strong Candidates in Maysan 
¶5.  (C) Current COR members from Maysan will face a tough 
challenge from their more-prominent competitors in the 
 
 
current election, according to Ali Leftah of the MAIS civil 
society organization, specializing in civics education and 
election observation.  Leftah noted that Hassan Alsari (INA- 
Hezbollah in Iraq), the current Iraqi Minister of Marshes, is 
rumored to be giving out blankets to potential voters prior 
to election season in addition to inviting a famous 
Najaf-based Muslim preacher, Jasim Altwarjawi, to Maysan in a 
bid to draw votes.  The Sadrist Trend is fielding three 
strong candidates: the current Amarah Mayor Rafa' Abd 
Al-Jabar Noshi, a popular local family court Judge Mushraq 
Naji Abbud and current Maysan PC member Jaleela Abdulzahra 
Mohssin.  The Sadrists have demonstrated themselves to be the 
best organized political party in Maysan so far.  Hussein 
Chaloub (INA/NRT), a co-founder of the democracy NGO Al Huda 
has a good chance of winning a seat given his name 
recognition, connections and wealth.  Overall most  observers 
in Maysan predict that the ten Maysan COR seats will most 
likely result in three seats for the SLA and six or seven 
seats for the INA (divided pretty evenly between Sadrist 
Trend, and ISCI, with  NRT perhaps taking one).  By rule 
Maysan will have at least three female COR members. 
COMMENT 
¶6.  (C) The SLA has positioned itself reasonably well by 
lining up the strong backing of local tribal leaders and 
avoided being outmaneuvered by the more voluble ISCI and 
Sadrists on the populist anti-Baathist and the Al-Sharqi 
operation issues.  PM Maliki himself seems to enjoy  support, 
although his February 21 visit seems not to have garnered 
much media impact.  Governor Shi'a (SLA/Da,wa)also 
recaptured the volatile Fakkah oil well incident in previous 
weeks by working the press when the Iranians withdrew  from 
the oil platform.  Nonetheless, the local betting currently 
seems to run heavily in INA's favor, as local observers game 
out the second-order effects of a big INA win on provincial 
control. 
¶7.  (U) Maysan PRT shared this cable with 4/1 BCT and U.S. 
Division South.  No revisions suggested. 
HILL