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INFO RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 000513 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/I 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/25/2020 
TAGS: EPET PREL KDEM OESC IZ
SUBJECT: PRT NAJAF: FORMER OIL MINISTER AND COR CANDIDATE 
WEIGHS IN ON DE-BA'ATHIFICATION, OIL, AND EDUCATION 
 
Classified By: PRT Team Leader Angus Simmons for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d 
) 
 
¶1. (U) This is a Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) Najaf 
reporting cable. 
 
¶2. (C) Summary: Najaf parliamentary candidate and former Oil 
Minister Ibrahim Bahr-Uloum (Iraqi National 
Alliance/Independent) met PRT Team Leader February 18 to 
discuss his campaign and the impact of de-Ba'athification. 
Bahr-Uloum discussed the short history of the Al Alamein 
Institute he founded in Najaf in 2008.  Bahr-Uloum also 
talked at some length about the oil industry in Iraq and his 
concerns with the last round of bidding and outlook for the 
industry.  End Summary. 
 
¶3. (C) On February 18, PRT met with Najaf Parliamentary 
Candidate Ibrahim Bahr-Uloum (Independent, aligned with the 
Iraqi National Alliance-INA).  Bahr-Uloum said he is trying 
to link his campaign to civil society, emphasizing voter 
education and civic responsibility, and building a strong 
parliament. He has actively participated in marches, mingling 
with pilgrims during Ashura and Arba'een religious holidays. 
 
DE-BA,ATHIFICATION TOUCHES SENSITIVE NERVE FOR SHI'A 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶4. (C) Bahr-Uloum told PRT Team Leader that he passionately 
believes that "Najaf is the compass of Iraqi politics.  The 
center of Shi'a resides in Najaf regardless of nationality." 
He appreciated the Ambassador,s message of opposition to the 
Ba'ath in February 6 interviews, but emphasized that the 
United States should be aware that this is a "redline" for 
Iraqi Shi'a. 
 
¶5. (C) Bahr-Uloum opined that security is better in Najaf 
than Karbala and stressed that it is important that security 
remains good in Najaf.  He explained that the impression most 
foreigners (from the Gulf region) now have of Iraq is based 
on their experience flying into Najaf International Airport 
(NIA) and visits to the local holy sites, and expressed 
thanks for the PRT's support of the airport project, which 
has supported Najaf's aspirations for openness, scholarly 
exchange, and business relationships around the world. 
 
AL ALAMEIN INSTITUTE - A SUCCESS STORY FOR GRADUATE STUDIES 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
¶6. (U) Bahr-Uhloum told PRT TL his family founded the private 
Al Alamein Institute in 2008.  One of only three private 
schools for graduate work in Iraq, the institute in political 
science has approximately 100 students enrolled in Masters 
and Ph.D. programs.  The school has no restrictions on 
admissions, but serves mostly Shi'a from south-central Iraq 
and recently had a visit from five University of Chicago 
professors.   According to Bahr-Uhloum, Al Alamein has a 
significant endowment, including support from the Marja'iyah 
(senior Shi'a clergy) which covers approximately 80% of the 
cost of running the institute.  The rest is recovered from 
student fees.  However, the school has faced an uphill battle 
for accreditation by the Ministry of Higher Education, which 
is unused to licensing private graduate schools.  He welcomed 
any opportunities for exchange with western scholars that the 
PRT could support.  Bahr-Uhloum told PRT TL that Grand 
Ayatollah Sistani endorsed the goals of the Institute, and 
the openness of the Marja'iyah to scholarship was a trademark 
of Najaf. 
 
REFLECTIONS, FORECASTS AND THOUGHTS ON THE IRAQI OIL INDUSTRY 
--------------------------------------------- ---------------- 
 
¶7. (C) The former two-time oil minister disparaged the GOI's 
goal of producing 12 million barrels of oil per day (bpd). 
Qgoal of producing 12 million barrels of oil per day (bpd). 
He noted that both the 5-6 million bpd day forecast for 2015 
and the 2020 goal of 8 million bpd are unrealistic. 
Bahr-Uhloum opined that four million bpd seems reasonable 
given the infrastructure challenges that the industry faces. 
 
¶8. (C) Bahr-Uloum expressed concern that something was "not 
right" with the recent oil bid round in December.  He 
suggested that the production targets of 2.85 million barrels 
per day (Mbpd) bid by BP (with CNPC) for the Rumaila oilfield 
and 1.8 Mbpd bid by Royal Dutch Shell (with Petronas) for the 
Majnoon oilfield were overly ambitious.  He said that 
allocating 33 percent of Iraq's oil reserves to BP/CNPC and 
Shell/Petronas seemed unreasonable. (Comment: The total 
reserves of Rumaila and Majnoon are about 26 percent, not 33 
percent. End comment.)  Bahr-Uloum claimed there were 
technical and legal problems and inevitably too much 
corruption with the bidding process, and that the national 
energy strategy was disjointed and overlooked smaller, viable 
 
sites such as Najaf.  (Comment: Iraq's two 2009 bid rounds 
have been internationally regarded as open, equitable, highly 
transparent, highly competitive, and well organized and 
implemented, with no apparent corruption.  Therefore, Uloum's 
claims of technical and legal problems and corruption in the 
bid rounds have no obvious basis. Iraq currently has no 
cross-ministry national energy strategy.  Therefore, the 
development of its oilfields and the use of production from 
these oilfields are not according to a strategy formally 
coordinated across the relevant Iraqi ministries. End 
comment.)  Bahr-Uloum explained that there are three known 
oil fields between Najaf and Karbala (Kifl, Kifl West, and 
Merjan) that in total could produce approximately 50,000 bpd 
of oil and 8 billion British Thermal Units (BTUs) per day of 
natural gas.  (Comment: The Ministry of Oil estimates these 
fields can produce at least 75,000 bpd within 7 years after 
extensive oilfield development has begun.  Bahr-Uloum,s 
estimate of 8 billion BTUs of associated gas production is 
similar to estimates for other nearby oilfields. End 
comment.) He said that development of these smaller fields 
could provide important jobs.  He asked, "Why do we have to 
import oil from other provinces to fuel our refinery in Najaf 
when oil is available in the province?"  (Comment: The Kifl, 
Kifl West, and Merjan oilfields were offered in the December 
oil bid round but received no bids. End comment.) 
 
¶9. BIO NOTE: Bahr-Uloum was twice (2003 and 2005) the Iraqi 
Minister of Oil, and is from one of Najaf's most prestigious 
families.  One of his progenitors was a Grand Ayatollah in 
the eighteenth century and two others were Ayatollahs.  His 
father, a member of the Governing Council for the Coalition 
Provisional Authority (CPA), is noted cleric Sayed Mohammad 
Bahr-Uloum.  Dr. Ibrahim Bahr-Uloum graduated with a Ph.D. in 
petroleum engineering from New Mexico Tech and previously 
worked for the Kuwaiti oil ministry, the Petroleum Recovery 
Research Center in New Mexico and as a consultant in London 
from 1992 to 2003.  Seventeen of his family members were 
killed by the Saddam regime.   End Comment. 
HILL