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RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 000509 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/25/2020 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: IRAQI ELECTION CAMPAIGN WEEK TWO: POLITICAL ROUNDUP 
 
REF: A. BAGHDAD 475 
     ¶B. BAGHDAD 502 
     ¶C. BAGHDAD 425 
     ¶D. BAGHDAD 446 
     ¶E. BAGHDAD 483 
     ¶F. BAGHDAD 505 
 
Classified By: Acting Political Minister-Counselor Yuri Kim for Reasons 
 1.4 (b, d) 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY:  Election campaigning intensified as the 
second week of the official campaign season drew to a close. 
Iraqis were bombarded by campaign ads through a variety of 
media; some poster-filled city streets took on a decidedly 
garish look.  Many Iraqi political leaders, including senior 
GOI officials, were busy making the campaign rounds, while VP 
Hashimi went abroad and former PM Allawi maintained low 
personal visibility.  The possibility of a Sunni election 
boycott remains unlikely, although anti-Ba'athist themes 
continue to have considerable resonance in the 
Shi'a-dominated southern provinces.  Acts of violence, 
including bombings, murders and fighting, have occurred, but 
their linkage to the upcoming elections is often unclear. 
Numerous contacts have said that recent violence is notably 
less than they had expected.  END SUMMARY. 
 
A FEAST FOR THE SENSES 
---------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) As the elections draw nearer, Iraqi streets are 
adorned with an ever-increasing amount of campaign 
propaganda.  Automobile accidents are reportedly on the rise 
in the Iraqi capital due to the placement of signs and 
billboards at key traffic junctures.  In the city of Kirkuk, 
news outlets reported that a campaign poster for Iraqi Kirkuk 
Front candidate Hala Noradin at a central traffic circle was 
distracting male drivers, causing accidents.  The Acting 
Governor of Anbar province told PRToffs February 24 that 
while posters were present on nearly every street in Ramadi, 
local party leaders nevertheless complained that printers 
were unable to keep up with the high demand for campaign 
materials.  Despite a police crackdown (ref A), the number of 
vandalized campaign posters continues to increase across 
Baghdad and elsewhere.  The USG is contributing to the sea of 
visual stimuli -- the International Republican Institute 
(IRI) put up 1,397 billboards this week across Iraq urging 
Iraqis to vote.  IRI's partner NGOs will distribute 5 million 
voting instruction leaflets in a coordinated "door stop" 
campaign over the February 27-28 weekend. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Television viewers cannot avoid ubiquitous campaign 
ads present on nearly all Arabic-language stations. 
State-owned Iraqi channels appear to be running ads for a 
variety of parties and their candidates.  (Note: The Embassy 
will attempt to monitor government-controlled channels for 
signs of obvious political bias. End Note.)  Sectarian themes 
are evident in some campaign materials, and mudslinging 
against rival candidates is notable.  One ad features a 
cartoonish image of PM Maliki with photos of scenes of death, 
violence, and poverty under the caption, "Five years of 
theft, destruction and sectarianism ( Do you want another 
five years?"  Along with the usual array of campaign 
propaganda, there has been a marked increase in satirical 
posters and cartoons appearing in some areas of Baghdad - 
mainly near universities - as well as on Internet sites and 
in newspapers.  One doctored campaign photo shows a miniature 
ISCI leader Ammar al-Hakim dressed in infant clothes sitting 
on the lap of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.  Some 
campaign rallies continue feature the distribution of gifts 
to attendees.  At a rally of about 300 people in south 
Baghdad observed by an e-PRT, an Iraqiyya coalition candidate 
handed out blankets to women, jerseys to men, and toys with 
Qhanded out blankets to women, jerseys to men, and toys with 
his candidate number to children.  Less common, but still 
existent is the distribution of cash, usually about 25,000 
dinar (roughly USD 20) per person for those at rallies, but 
sometimes up to 250,000 dinar (about USD 200) for people like 
neighborhood leaders who might be able to influence votes. 
 
POLITICAL LEADERS MAKE THE ROUNDS 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) PM Maliki continued his campaign activities in the 
south of Iraq (ref A) to drum up support for his State of Law 
Alliance (SLA).  He arrived in the province of Muthanna the 
morning of February 24 to meet with local SLA candidates and 
attend campaign rallies.  According to media reports, Maliki 
is touting his record of accomplishment, telling one crowd: 
"We have achieved security.  We've signed huge oil contracts 
which will give Iraq money.  I am not telling you that we 
want to achieve something.  We have already achieved 
something."  (Note: Maliki returned to Baghdad later on the 
24th to meet with visiting Swedish FM Carl Bildt. End Note.) 
Outside of its stronghold in the Shi'a south, SLA sponsored a 
large campaign rally February 22 under the slogan "By 
Reconciliation and Stability We Elect" at the Fallujah 
Business Center in Anbar province.  The event, attended by a 
large gathering of Fallujah sheikhs and local government 
leaders, included a debate between SLA candidates and 
candidates from the rival Coalition for Iraq's Unity (CIU). 
The keynote address called for "national reconciliation 
between all Iraqi sects" as well as "focusing on restoring 
the former senior Iraqi Army and security officers." 
 
¶5. (SBU) Ammar al-Hakim, ISCI head and one of the main 
leaders in the Iraqi National Alliance (INA) -- SLA's main 
competitor -- recently paid a two-day visit to the southern 
province of Diwaniyah, talking with key tribal leaders and 
conducting media interviews while accompanied by other ISCI 
candidates.  Interior Minister Bolani, head of the secular, 
cross-sectarian CIU, has been campaigning in Basra and other 
southern areas of Iraq the past three days, making a point to 
meet with tribal leaders.  Bolani was accused by the Sadrist 
Trend and other rival political groups of improperly using 
government vehicles and violating campaign laws while 
stumping for CIU candidates in Wasit province. 
 
¶6. (C) Following the example of his Iraqiyya partner Ayad 
Allawi (ref A), VP Hashimi forsook domestic campaigning to 
meet with foreign officials and rally expatriate Iraqi voters 
in neighboring Arab states.  (Note: Allawi continues to be 
criticized in local media and by rival parties for inviting 
foreign interference during his recent tour of regional 
capitals.  Iraqiyya candidate Rend al-Raheem told Poloff 
February 25 that Allawi, whom she had spoken to that morning, 
was aware of his conspicuous absence from the campaign trail 
and would be traveling to southern provinces shortly. End 
Note.)  Hashimi arrived in Cairo on February 23 for a 
three-day visit.  He held talks Tuesday with PM Ahmad Nazif 
and met the following day with President Mubarak, FM Aboul 
Gheit and Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa.  Hashimi 
plans to also visit Syria and Jordan. 
 
The Sunni Non-Boycott 
--------------------- 
 
¶7. (C) MP Saleh al-Mutlaq and his Iraqi Front for National 
Dialogue (IFND) party officially rescinded an earlier call 
for an election boycott during a February 25 press 
conference.  Mutlaq told reporters "we decided not to give 
the liars a chance" and called on all Iraqis to cast election 
ballots.  (Comment: Mutlaq reiterated to PolCouns February 23 
that a boycott was not in the interest of his supporters or 
the Iraqi people in general, and that the IFND boycott 
announcement was made without his approval; see ref B. End 
Comment.)  Even before Mutlaq recanted, most non-disqualified 
IFND candidates were actively campaigning.  Dr. Nada Ibrahim, 
one of the party's candidates in Baghdad, confirmed to Poloff 
February 23 that she had been putting up posters and 
distributing campaign materials for over a week and had 
received hundreds of e-mails urging her not to boycott.  IFND 
members in Diyala informed PRToffs that they had launched 
their campaign in the province on February 20.  (Note: Ali 
al-Lami, executive director for the Accountability and 
Justice Commission (AJC) told press February 24 that the AJC 
had referred its file on Mutlaq to the Criminal Court 
prosecutor "for his involvement in acts of violence and 
murders targeting Iraqis."  While this may be only a symbolic 
move, the Embassy will follow-up with relevant contacts to 
try to determine what action, if any, the Iraqi judiciary 
Qtry to determine what action, if any, the Iraqi judiciary 
might take in response to the AJC's referral.  End Note.) 
 
De-Ba'athification Alive in the South 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (C) Anti-Ba'athist rhetoric and action continue to play 
out at the provincial level in the Shi'a-dominated south of 
Iraq.  Taking a cue from the provincial council in Karbala, 
which formed a provincial accountability and justice 
commission (ref C), and in Diwaniyah, which passed a law 
prohibiting former Ba'athists from holding managerial jobs in 
the provincial government (ref D), the Muthanna provincial 
council has enacted a law to purge civil servants associated 
with the Ba'ath Party (ref E).  The head of the Muthanna 
Governorate Election Office (GEO) refused calls by some 
council members that he investigate and purge Ba'athists from 
the thousands of poll workers hired for election day. 
(Comment: Embassy and PRT continue to underscore the 
criticality of transparency and the rule of law. End 
Comment.) 
 
Violence Less than Many Expected 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) The campaign season continues to be punctuated by 
sporadic violence, although it remains difficult to determine 
which violent acts may be directly linked to the upcoming 
elections.  A car bomb detonated close to the Anbar 
provincial government building in Anbar province on February 
22, killing five people.  This is the fifth attack near this 
facility in as many months, and comes on the heels of a 
deadlier explosion in the same area last week (ref A). 
Unknown gunmen reportedly shot and lightly wounded a female 
IHEC employee in the Amil district of southwest Baghdad 
February 24 while on her way to work at the IHEC main office. 
 Responses to USF-I inquiries suggest, however, that the 
shooting may have no relation to the victim's employment with 
IHEC.  A candidate in the small Trend for Justice and Freedom 
Party told Poloff February 23 that a car bomb exploded the 
previous evening near the home of one of his party's other 
candidates.  No one was injured and the contact said he could 
not be certain of the target of the bomb.  An afternoon bomb 
blast on February 23 in a well-known book market in downtown 
Baghdad -- a favorite meeting place for Iraqi intellectuals 
and a target of terrorists in the past -- killed one 
individual and wounded at least three others. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Despite an evening campaign curfew in Sulaymaniyah 
(ref A), media reported on February 24 that violent clashes 
had erupted in the province between supporters of competing 
Kurdish electoral blocs.  The fighting allegedly damaged 
numerous vehicles and resulted in the blocking off of streets 
by security forces, although no serious injuries were 
reported.  After the recent killings of five Christians in 
Ninewa province (ref F), unidentified gunmen killed three 
Christians, a father and his two sons (one of whom was 
reportedly a priest) in western Mosul on February 23. 
Reports from representatives of the American Islamic 
Congress, an USG-funded American NGO conducting a Safe 
Election Campaign in Basra, indicated an increase in 
street-level election-related disputes about vandalized 
posters and fighting at campaign rallies.  The most gruesome 
act of recent violence occurred February 22 when a Shi'a 
couple and their six children were brutally killed in a 
village south of Baghdad.  Some of the victims were 
reportedly beheaded or their throats slit.  A few media 
outlets reported that the father of the slain children was a 
campaign worker who had been hanging posters for Iraqi 
National Congress candidate Entifadh Qanbar, a secularist and 
longtime associate of Ahmad Chalabi.  While police conducting 
an investigation stated that no clear motive had emerged, 
Qanbar and relatives of the deceased asserted that the 
killings were in retaliation for campaign activities. 
 
 
¶11. (C) Iraqi authorities have detected no discernible 
pattern to the recent violence; some media reports on 
election-related violence have been exaggerated and/or 
inaccurate.  The Society for Defending Journalism Freedom in 
Iraq, an Iraqi NGO, told PRT Baghdad that it had noted an 
increase in media outlets skewing crime statistics for 
partisan purposes.  An informal canvassing of candidates and 
political contacts at the Embassy's National Day event on 
February 25 revealed that most thought that violence during 
the election campaign had been notably less than they 
expected.  USF-I continues to observe no sustained increase 
in overall violence during the past week.  Awareness by the 
parties that they will need to form post-election 
partnerships with rival groups is likely helping to hold 
inter-party violence and dirty tactics in check.  Still, the 
Qinter-party violence and dirty tactics in check.  Still, the 
stated intent of political parties to prevent intimidation 
and tensions does not always match their actions.  The 
planned signing by local party leaders in Kirkuk of a 
provincial campaign code of conduct, for example, failed to 
take place when the signers -- gathered in the governor's 
office -- descended into a litany of complaints against each 
other about posters and the presence of Kurdistan Regional 
Government (KRG) flags. 
HILL