VZCZCXRO1809
RR RUEHIK
DE RUEHAH #0237/01 0551039
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 241039Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4282
INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA 6285
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 3957
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 3816
RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL 4529
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1498
RHMCSUU/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 4426
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ASHGABAT 000237 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SCA/CEN; EEB 
ENERGY FOR EKIMOFF/BURPOE/COHEN 
COMMERCE FOR EHOUSE/DSTARKS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EPET PGOV EINV ADB IN TX
SUBJECT: TURKMENISTAN'S TEPID SUPPORT FOR TAPI 
 
ASHGABAT 00000237  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (U) Sensitive but unclassified.  Not for public Internet. 
 
¶2. (SBU) SUMMARY: A number of international media outlets have 
reported that the Turkmen Government again expressed an 
interest in the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan [-India] 
(TAPI or TAP) pipeline project.  The reports appeared 
following an intergovernmental meeting between Turkmen and 
Indian officials held on February 8.  The Turkmen also 
discussed TAPI during a recent visit by Asian Development Bank 
President Haruhiko Kuroda.  Despite the discussions, there are 
grounds to believe that the Turkmen Government is not 
considering the TAPI project seriously, mentioning it only 
during meetings with the project-related countries.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
¶3. (SBU) The meeting between Turkmen and Indian officials was 
held under the framework of the Turkmen-Indian 
Intergovernmental Commission.  Reportedly, the two sides 
discussed the whole spectrum of Turkmen-Indian cooperation, 
and TAPI was just one of many issues.  According to a Turkmen 
Oil and Gas Ministry official, no significant decisions on 
TAPI were made during the meeting and the project is still 
firmly on hold in Turkmenistan. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Turkmen media covered the Turkmen-Indian commission 
meeting without mentioning the TAPI project.  The Turkmen 
media also did not mention the project in their reports about 
Berdimuhamedov's meeting with the Indian State Minister for 
External Affairs Preneet Kaur, who led the Indian delegation. 
The only recent mention of the TAPI project in local media 
reports occurred four days after the Turkmen-Indian commission 
meeting, as part of the coverage of a Cabinet of Ministers 
meeting.  Turkmen media reported that, at the meeting, 
Berdimuhamedov confirmed Turkmenistan's interest in 
implementing the TAPI project. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Asian Development Bank (ADB) President Haruhiko 
Kuroda confirmed to poloff that TAPI was discussed during his 
meeting with Berdimuhamedov on February 18.  While Kuroda 
indicated that the Turkmen remain interested in the project, 
he noted that the security situation in Afghanistan and 
India's reluctance to commit to TAPI are the two most 
significant obstacles.  He said India could decide to import 
gas from Burma as an alternative to TAPI, and that without the 
Indian market, TAPI would not be feasible. 
 
¶6. (SBU) The TAPI (or TAP) gas pipeline project was first 
proposed in the mid-1990s after Turkmenistan and Pakistan 
signed a memorandum of understanding to that effect in 1995. 
The project would supply up to 33 bcm of gas from Turkmenistan 
to Pakistan and India annually.  U.S. energy firm Unocal 
formed a consortium to implement the project in 1996.  The 
project froze after Unocal withdrew from the consortium in 
¶1998. 
 
¶7. (SBU) The project saw another burst of activity in 2002- 
2003 when Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan decided to 
revive the project and signed a framework agreement to 
construct the pipeline.  The ADB joined the project as a 
facilitator and provided a million dollar grant to conduct a 
feasibility study for the project.  After Turkmenistan signed 
a 25-year gas purchase agreement with Gazprom in 2003, the 
Turkmen appeared to lose interest in TAPI, failing to provide 
the requisite audit of the Dowletabad gas field that would 
supply the pipeline. The Turkmen Government's failure to release 
results of the recent Gaffney-Cline audit has further curtailed 
Indian interest in the project; the Government of India is 
unlikely to commit to the project until the Turkmen confirm 
 
ASHGABAT 00000237  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
they have sufficient gas reserves. NOTE: The Dovletebad field, 
which would supply TAPI under the original plan, currently 
supplies both Russia and Iran and is in decline. 
 
¶8. (SBU) COMMENT:  Given security challenges and uncertainty 
about the Indian market, it does not seem likely that the 
Turkmen Government will pursue the TAPI project seriously any 
time soon.  With the new pipeline to China, growing export 
obligations to Iran, and resumed supplies to Russia already on 
its hands, Turkmenistan will be stretched to supply gas 
through existing pipelines in the midterm.  Still, the Turkmen 
are unlikely to rule out eventual participation in TAPI since 
the TAPI concept buttresses its policy of diversifying gas 
export routes.  END COMMENT. 
 
CURRAN