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FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
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RHMFISS/CDR USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE PRIORITY
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C O N F I D E N T I A L ANTANANARIVO 000068 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/E JAMES LIDDLE 
PARIS FOR WALLACE BAIN 
LONDON FOR PETER LORD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/07/2020 
TAGS: PGOV MA
SUBJECT: FORMER MALAGASY PRESIDENT ZAFY: PATIENT AND 
OBSTINATE 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR NIELS MARQUARDT FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D. 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On February 4, Ambassador Marquardt met 
with former President Albert Zafy to discuss the latest 
developments in the ongoing political impasse.  Zafy remains 
firm in his support for a return to the 2009 Maputo and Addis 
agreements, still clearly considers himself an equal partner 
in the process of political reconciliation, and sees little 
need for compromise on his part.  He attributes the welcome 
change in France's position to a reported call from Zuma to 
Sarzoky.  With international condemnation of de facto 
president Andry "TGV" Rajoelina growing in strength, he has 
nothing to gain by agitating, and nothing to lose by waiting 
patiently as the responsibility for continued deadlock is 
increasingly pinned on Rajoelina alone. Zafy seems to think 
that Rajoelina's days are numbered, and is probably waiting 
for him to fall.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (C) Zafy stated that he has responded favorably to AU 
Chairperson Jean Ping's proposal for a return to 
negotiations, as it is largely based on a return to the 
agreements reached in Maputo and Addis Ababa from August to 
November 2009.  For him, these agreements are the only 
acceptable starting point for resumed talks, although he 
indicated that he might have great difficulty accepting TGV 
as head of state, given his unilateral actions since December 
¶2009.  He did not say so explicitly, but left the impression 
that he does not expect TGV to last much longer, and is just 
waiting for him to fall.  Zafy is not interested in 
half-measures: Rajoelina's latest unilaterally-appointed 
Prime Minister, Colonel Camille Vital, will have to cede his 
place to the original "consensus" PM, Eugene Mangalaza. 
(Mangalaza met with Zafy later the same day and reaffirmed to 
the ambassador the next day, as he said he had to Zafy, his 
firm intention to remain Prime Minister.)  Zafy said he had 
rebuffed Vital's efforts to call on him.  Likewise, Zafy said 
he will accept no diminished role for the National 
Reconciliation Council (designed in the Maputo transition 
charter, with Zafy later designated president of the Council 
in Addis Ababa), which was charged with planning 
constitutional reforms, setting up the CENI electoral 
commission, and overseeing several steps in the preparation 
of elections. 
 
¶3. (C) Zafy believes that France has told TGV that they're 
"with the international community" now, and no longer back 
TGV.  In his view, a phone call from South African President 
Zuma was apparently instrumental in convincing Sarkozy to 
abandon his "support" of TGV.  He feels TGV was "mocked" in 
his French media appearances during a recent visit to Paris 
(referring to questions about TGV's private life that would 
be unacceptable in local media), but added later that TGV is 
"acting like a child" in his continual attempts to seek 
different answers from various members of the international 
community.  Asked what compromises Zafy would bring to 
renewed negotiations, he stated that "even allowing TGV to 
resume his function as president of the transition (of a 
consensus government) would be a concession". 
 
¶4. (SBU) COMMENT: During his visit in January, AU Chairperson 
Jean Ping gave Madagascar until February 5 to accept a 
compromise designed to restart negotiations, based on the 
Maputo and Addis agreements.  Opposition parties have agreed, 
but Rajoelina remains intransigent, proposing instead that 
his government remain in place to run the transition period, 
while offering opposition leaders positions in a proposed 
"High Council for Monitoring of the Transition".  With the AU 
noisily condemning Rajoelina's coup over the course of their 
recent summit in Addis Ababa, and most ICG-M members 
seriously considering sanctions, Zafy (along with his fellow 
opposition leaders, Ravalomanana and Ratsiraka) now has even 
less incentive to compromise.  All eyes are on Addis Ababa, 
as the international community and Malagasy opposition 
movements await Ping's and the AU/PSC's next steps.  A 
meeting of the International Contact Group on Madagascar 
(ICG-M) has been scheduled for February 15. END COMMENT. 
MARQUARDT