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R 051115Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3285
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CDR USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ANTANANARIVO 000066 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E JAMES LIDDLE 
DEPT PASS TO USAID/AFR/EA ASHLEY MARCUS 
DOC FOR RTELCHIN 
TREASURY FOR FRANCOIS BOYE 
PARIS FOR WALLACE BAIN 
LONDON FOR PETER LORD 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON EINV ECPS MA
SUBJECT: ANTANANARIVO POL/ECON WEEKLY UPDATE 
 
¶1. (U) SUMMARY: This is U.S. Embassy Antananarivo's Weekly Update 
for February 1 - 5, a periodic unclassified review of major 
political, economic, and commercial events and information from the 
U.S. Mission to Madagascar and Comoros. 
 
POLITICS (Paragraphs 2-6) 
- French Deputies Support TGV 
- TGV's Diplomatic Follies in Washington and Addis 
- HAT and Opposition Meetings Both Fall Short of a Quorum 
- Monja Calls for National Conference 
- Pierrot Launches Political Coalition 
 
ECONOMIC AND COMMERCIAL (Paragraphs 7-9) 
- EASSy: Madagascar to Connect to East Africa 
- Lost Gold Spurs Effort to Control Mining Sector 
- Rosewood Exploitation Moves South 
 
END SUMMARY 
 
-------- 
POLITICS 
-------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) TGV COURTS FRENCH DEPUTIES:  Despite receiving a fairly 
tough message by the French executive, HAT President Andry Rajoelina 
reportedly rallied seven deputies from the French national assembly 
to his cause.  Deputy Jean-Francois Mancel issued a communique that 
appeared in local Malagasy press on Feb 3 stating: 
 
Since the precipitous and beneficial departure of former President 
Marc Ravalomanana, the High Transition Authority led by Andry 
Rajoelina has not been able to validate its international status. 
The international community has not facilitated this task by 
imposing unbearable constraints, notably by the installation of 
three political movements of former presidents who, in various ways, 
did not leave through the front door of Malagasy history. 
Henceforth, we must advance quickly from realistic bases in the 
interest of the Malagasy people who will increasingly suffer from 
the political instability.  Given that President Rajoelina has shown 
that he is able to organize free elections in a reasonable 
timeframe, it is imperative that the concerned nations, of Africa 
and of Europe and notably France, promote the democratic process 
with him, giving the word to the people. 
 
¶3. (SBU) HAT INTERNATIONAL LOBBYING: While Rajoelina advocated in 
Paris on behalf of his regime, HAT delegations were sent to the 
U.S., the African Union in Addis Ababa, and the European Union in 
Brussels. These missions met with both government representatives 
and non-governmental contacts. Local media reported that a 
three-person HAT delegation had been received by Ambassador Phil 
Carter and also erroneously that the delegation had been received by 
the "Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs." The meetings 
were portrayed by some in the Malagasy media as a positive step 
towards recognition, and an opportunity to "clarify" HAT positions 
on the current political impasse, although most remained much 
lower-profile than Rajoelina in Paris. One article went so far as to 
state that French, US and Swiss participants in these meetings had 
agreed to assist with the elections and provide election observers. 
None of the delegations have reported any concrete result from their 
mission. 
 
¶4. (SBU) HAT ELECTION CONFERENCE SUFFERS LOW ATTENDANCE: On 
Rajoelina's order, the Ombudswoman of the Republic organized a 
one-day conference on Feb 2 to further discuss the elections 
preparation. Two of the main civil society organizations on 
elections (SeFaFi and KMF-CNOE) actively participated, but 
attendance was otherwise poor, with most opposition politicians 
avoiding the event.  Participants focused on the need to set up an 
Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI), and proposed new 
dates (May 19 or 24) for the legislative election, originally 
planned for Mar 20.  On Feb 4-5, Fetison Rakoto Andrianirina 
(Ravalomanana's short-lived "co-president" in the November 
transition government) organized a separate conference to discuss 
crisis resolution and election plans, but it was cut short (to only 
a half day) once Ravalomanana announced his opposition to the 
meeting.  The FIS military unit controlled by Rajoelina again sought 
unsuccessfully to arrest Fetison, who appears to also be losing the 
support of his own movement.  All sides are now awaiting the 
consequences of the impending AU deadline for a return to the 
Maputo/Addis accords of 2009. 
 
 
ANTANANARI 00000066  002 OF 003 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) MONJA CALLS FOR NATIONAL CONFERENCE:  Former HAT prime 
minister, coup leader, and militant Monja Roindefo told the 
Ambassador Feb 1 that his movement had ousted President Ravalomanana 
because of his undemocratic behavior and poor governance, without 
appearing to see the irony in his remarks. Roindefo is personally 
bitter against Ravalomanana because of administrative hurdles 
imposed during the 2006 presidential election that resulted in 
Roindefo's ballots not getting to the polling stations. He also 
alleged that Ravalomanana had ordered the district and high court to 
invalidate the results of the legislative election in 2007 in which 
he was elected as deputy for his hometown in the South. He explained 
that he is also opposed to TGV's unilateral moves to elections and 
requested the international community's support for a national 
conference to create consensus among all the interested parties, 
rather than merely among the four movements that were involved in 
the Maputo process.  He argued that the Maputo charter would never 
work because the four movements were all seeking to gain places in 
the government to use state resources to finance election campaigns. 
The Ambassador replied that the international community viewed 
consensus as the only way forward, but wasn't wedded to a particular 
set-up, and urged Roindefo to work with Ravalomanana, HAT, and other 
party representatives to achieve consensus. 
 
¶6. (SBU) PIERROT RAJAONARIVELO LAUNCHES "MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRACY": On 
January 28-29, former Deputy Prime Minister (and Ratsiraka-era 
Ambassador to the U.S.) Pierrot Rajaonarivelo launched a new 
political "movement", formally entering the crowded political arena 
after months on the sidelines.  Rajaonarivelo has been laying the 
groundwork for the Mouvement pour la Democratie de Madagascar (MDM) 
since at least September 2009, and claims that 117 political parties 
and civil society organizations from around Madagascar have signed 
onto his new platform.  In the near future, the movement is expected 
to transform into a political party, and will likely field 
candidates when elections are finally held; Rajaonarivelo himself is 
expected to make a presidential bid.  Rajaonarivelo appears to 
support many of the goals of the Rajoelina (TGV) camp, including a 
focus on rewriting the constitution and launching a "fourth 
republic", but has remained carefully independent of all four 
existing movements, and has made clear his intention to stay outside 
of the transition government.  He has called for the holding of a 
national conference to discuss constitutional reform and proposed 
the creation of a third chamber of parliament made up of traditional 
tribal leaders. 
 
----------------------- 
ECONOMIC AND COMMERCIAL 
----------------------- 
 
¶7. (U) EASSY TO CONNECT MADAGASCAR TO EAST AFRICA: Patrick Hamida, 
General Manager of Madagascar's telecommunication company (TELMA), 
announced that the East African Submarine System (EASSy) cable will 
reach Tulear, in the Southeast of the country, between March 8 and 
¶10.  As TELMA already completed the national backbone to which the 
EASSY cable will be connected, it is poised to rapidly roll out high 
speed internet throughout the country. 
 
¶8. (U) CREATION OF A COMMITTEE TO SECURE MINING REVENUE:  Following 
an ill-fated smuggling endeavor in which a 4 kilogram gold bar was 
found on board an AIR MAD plane returning from Guangzhou, the de 
facto regime is ramping up efforts to control the mining sector.  An 
inter-ministerial committee composed of officials from six 
ministries, the port, and the airport will be created to fight 
corruption and illegal shipment of precious stones. 
 
¶9. (SBU) ROSEWOOD EXPLOITATION MOVES SOUTH: Former North Mananara 
Deputy Zakahely Boniface told Emboff Feb 1 that there were 
approximately 600 tons of felled rosewood in and around Mananara 
national park in eastern Madagascar, south of the main destruction 
zones of Marojejy and Masoala national parks.  He said there were 
about twenty people involved in cutting down the trees, but now they 
were afraid to sell the wood because of the rosewood task force and 
military present in the area.  Although that enforcement news at 
first may seem positive, Boniface went on to assert that the 
military were taking the wood themselves to the north for sale and 
export and personally reaping the benefits.  He alleged that HAT 
president Rajoelina was involved and benefitting as well.  [Bio 
note: Boniface was one of eleven independent deputies elected in 
2007, despite intimidation by the military, and was imprisoned by 
Ravalomanana in 2002 and 2008 for, he claims, political reasons. 
End note.] 
 
 
ANTANANARI 00000066  003 OF 003 
 
 
 
MARQUARDT