VZCZCXRO3992
RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMA RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
DE RUEHAN #0115/01 0570853
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 260853Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3376
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CDR USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ANTANANARIVO 000115 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E JAMES LIDDLE 
DEPT PASS TO USAID/AFR/EA ASHLEY MARCUS 
 
DOC FOR RTELCHIN 
TREASURY FOR FRANCOIS BOYE 
PARIS FOR WALLACE BAIN 
LONDON FOR PETER LORD 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON EINV ECPS MA
SUBJECT: ANTANANARIVO POL/ECON UPDATE 
 
REF: A) ANTANANARIVO 114 (AU sanctions) 
B) ANTANANARIVO 97 (Reactions to ICG) 
C) ANTANANARIVO 111 (Local French views) 
D) ANTANANARIVO 112 (New minister) 
 
¶1. (U) SUMMARY: This is U.S. Embassy Antananarivo's update for 
February 8-26, a periodic unclassified review of political, 
economic, and commercial events and information from the U.S. 
Mission to Madagascar and Comoros. 
 
POLITICS (Paragraphs 2-6) 
- ICG-M MEETS, AU MOVES TO SANCTION 
- RAJOELINA REMAINS DEFIANT, APPOINTS NEW FM 
- MADAGASCAR UNDER THE OHCHR MICROSCOPE 
- HRWG ON CIVIL RIGHTS IN AMERICA 
- NURSES ON STRIKE 
 
ECONOMIC AND COMMERCIAL (Paragraphs 7-10) 
- HIGHER FEES IN THE MINING SECTOR, NEW OIL BLOCKS TO BE GRANTED 
- MINIMUM WAGE INCREASE 
- DEPRECIATION LEADS TO PRICE INFLATION 
- TEXTILE SECTOR HARASSED BY HAT 
 
COMOROS (Paragraphs 11-12) 
- TEACHER STRIKE ENDED 
- CONVOCATION OF CONGRESS 
 
END SUMMARY 
 
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POLITICS 
-------- 
¶2. (SBU) ICG-M MEETS, AU MOVES TO SANCTION: The International 
Contact Group on Madagascar (ICG-M) met on February 18 in Addis 
Ababa, and generally agreed that the 2009 Maputo/Addis accords 
represented the only path forward.  Since de facto President Andry 
"TGV" Rajoelina remains the primary obstruction to their 
implementation, the ICG-M empowered Senior Mediator Joaquim Chissano 
to engage in one final round of negotiations, and threatened further 
measures (including sanctions) if the Malagasy parties don't comply 
(ref A).  On February 19, the AU Peace and Security Council (PSC) 
further strengthened this message, stating its intention to impose 
targeted travel and financial sanctions if the de facto GOM failed 
to implement the accords by March 16.  Most observers in country 
support targeted sanctions to bring Rajoelina back into the process 
(ref C), as the country prepares to mark the one-year anniversary of 
the military-backed coup. 
 
¶3. (SBU) RAJOELINA REMAINS DEFIANT, APPOINTS NEW FM: On February 25, 
Rajoelina appointed Vice Admiral Hyppolite Ramaroson as the new Vice 
Prime Minister for Foreign Affairs (ref D), quashing any hopes that 
he might form a true unity government before the AU deadline. 
Ramaroson is a controversial choice: he is not well-liked within the 
current military leadership, he has little experience in the 
practice of foreign affairs, and his appointment is unlikely to 
please the opposition or the international community.  On the 
evening of the 25th, Rajoelina gave a speech in which he blamed the 
opposition for the current impasse, called for elections as soon as 
possible, and announced plans for another "all-inclusive" national 
meeting on March 4-5 to discuss election planning with opposition 
parties and civil society.  It is unlikely they will participate. 
 
¶4. (U) MADAGASCAR UNDER THE OHCHR MICROSCOPE: Madagascar was up for 
its quadrennial Universal Periodic Review, under the UN Office of 
the High Commissioner for Human Rights in Geneva.  Rajoelina's de 
facto Minister of Justice, Christine Razanamahasoa, led the Malagasy 
delegation, which resulted in a boycott by some African countries, 
but 24 countries did participate.  Razanamahasoa focused on social 
and economic rights, but avoided discussion on political and civil 
rights.  She mentioned the arrests of several journalists and 
political figures in recent months, but opined that these are 
criminal rather than political issues.  The de facto GOM accepted 65 
recommendations (mainly concerning the pending ratification of 
several conventions and optional protocols on human rights), 
postponed 17, and rejected two, which called for an independent 
investigation into the events surrounding the coup, and the 
appointment of an independent ombudsman.  The draft report will be 
published by the OHCHR in mid March. 
 
¶5. (U) HRWG ON CIVIL RIGHTS IN AMERICA: The Human Rights Working 
Group meeting on February 24 featured an ARS speaker from Paris, 
 
ANTANANARI 00000115  002 OF 003 
 
 
Sheldon Austin, who discussed the Civil Rights Movement in the U.S. 
The event was attended by over 70 members of civil society, and 
Austin fielded a wide variety of questions concerning both U.S. 
history and the extent to which the American experience related to 
Madagascar. 
 
¶6. (SBU) NURSES ON STRIKE: Nurses and midwives across Madagascar 
have been on strike since February 22, and have stopped reporting to 
their posts.  They are reportedly disappointed with the current 
regime's response to their request for a pay increase, as they have 
been told they must wait until the new government is in place before 
changes to their salary scale will be considered.  They are 
currently awaiting an appointment with de facto President Rajoelina 
to discuss the matter.  This is only the latest in a series of 
salary disputes involving medical professionals, as well as civil 
servants in other sectors.  The de facto GOM has had difficulty 
balancing its populist urges with an increasingly difficult fiscal 
situation, having already caved to a number of such demands in 
¶2009. 
 
----------------------- 
ECONOMIC AND COMMERCIAL 
----------------------- 
¶7. (SBU) HIGHER FEES IN THE MINING SECTOR, NEW OIL BLOCKS TO BE 
GRANTED: On January 25, the Ministry of Mining adopted a decree that 
doubles the administrative fees for mining prospection.  According 
to mining operators, this new decree does not comply with the 
current mining law, because the National Mining Committee should be 
consulted on any such increase.  In the oil sector, the Office of 
Mining and Strategic Industries (OMNIS) announced that around 200 
new blocks would be granted in 2010. 
 
¶8. (SBU) MINIMUM WAGE INCREASE: On February 8 business associations 
and unions agreed to increase the private sector minimum wage by 10 
percent, to 70,000 Ariary per month (approximately USD 35.00).  This 
increase will take effect following the adoption of a decree by the 
Ministry of Labor.  Enforcing compliance may be difficult, given the 
current political and economic crisis, and many of the largest 
formal-sector employers in the EPZ are already facing cutbacks due 
to the cancellation of AGOA benefits and the general economic 
malaise. 
 
¶9. (SBU) DEPRECIATION LEADS TO PRICE INFLATION: Since the beginning 
of the year, the Ariary has depreciated by 10.8 percent against the 
US dollar, and by 5.9 percent against the Euro.  As a result, pump 
prices of gasoline have increased by 7.3 percent in January, and 4.1 
percent by mid-February.  The prices of basic commodities have 
soared as well during recent weeks; monthly inflation in January 
2010 was estimated at 1.4 percent, compared to 1 percent over the 
same period last year. 
¶10. (SBU) TEXTILE SECTOR HARASSED BY HAT:  The Ambassador hosted an 
unofficial meeting of five textile sector representatives, the VP of 
AmCham, and Rajoelina's chief of staff at the CMR Feb 23 to give the 
business owners, including two American investors, the opportunity 
to raise their concerns about harassment by the HAT.  The companies, 
who are reducing their workforces following the suspension of AGOA, 
explained that they fear for their personal safety and the security 
of their investments because of the actions of the Ministry of 
Population and the Commission for the Defense of the HAT, including 
threatening managers with arrest, searching their premises, blocking 
them from leaving the country, threatening that factories will be 
declared "red zones" and sealed, hinting that if their demands are 
not met the workers may "burn down your factories", and instructing 
the workers to go on strike.  These government agents are employing 
strong arm "negotiation" tactics to try to force the companies to 
give the workers more than legally required upon lay-off and then 
publicizing their interventions as having been helpful to both the 
workers and the factories.  The chief of staff promised to 
intervene, and called the Ambassador back to report that the Prime 
Minister had taken measures to restore order.  The businesses were 
highly appreciative of the intervention and have since reported no 
untoward activities at their sites. 
 
------- 
COMOROS 
------- 
¶11. (U) TEACHER STRIKE ENDED: After a six-week long general 
teachers' strike which had paralyzed the country's educational 
system at all levels, President Sambi has signed a decree 
regularizing the status of temporary Comoran teachers and agreeing 
to pay part of their salary arrears (currently about eight months 
 
ANTANANARI 00000115  003 OF 003 
 
 
pay).  In response, the teachers have agreed to return to work. 
Classes resumed on Monday, February 22 -- timidly at first, but with 
greater regularity as the week progressed.  The budgetary impact of 
this presidential action is expected to be about 120 million KMF 
(USD 400,000).  It is not clear where this money will come from, nor 
is it clear how the IMF will react to this unanticipated fiscal 
shock.  The Ministry of Education has indicated that the school year 
will still end on June 23 as planned.  This will be achieved by the 
cancellation of normal vacation periods and a slight intensification 
of classes. 
 
¶12. (SBU) CONVOCATION OF CONGRESS: President Sambi has yet to issue 
his highly anticipated decree convoking the Comoran Congress (the 
combined meeting of the Union National Assembly and the three island 
assemblies) to consider the question of "harmonization" of mandates 
of the Union President and the island chief executives.  It is 
believed that the President's hesitation is due to the greater than 
expected public discontent over what is widely believed to be a 
rather transparent attempt to extend his term of office.  While the 
President enjoys the necessary majorities to push any 
"harmonization" through the Congress, he is clearly hearing the 
grumbling -- even from some he counts as supporters.  If Sambi does 
not issue the decree this week, there is a good possibility that the 
Congress will be significantly delayed, as the EASBRIG chief of 
state meetings (scheduled for two weeks in Moroni during the first 
half of March) and the Doha investors conference in Qatar (also in 
early March) loom on the horizon, and are certain to occupy the 
President's time and attention. 
 
MARQUARDT