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INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 000257 
 
C  O  R  R  E  C  T  E  D    C  O  P  Y  (TEXT PARA 10) 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/16/2020 
TAGS: PREL PGOV AR TU
SUBJECT: PARLIAMENT FOREIGN AFFAIRS COMMITTEE WARNS 
AMBASSADOR ON AGR FALLOUT 
 
REF: ANKARA 185 
 
ANKARA 00000257  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador James Jeffrey, for reasons 1.4(b,d) 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY.  During an extensive meeting with the 
Ambassador February 16, eight members of the Parliamentary 
Foreign Affairs Committee raised concerns about the draft 
Armenian Genocide Resolution now being discussed in the US 
Congress and warned that, if passed by the full Congress, an 
AGR would have a devastating impact on US-Turkey relations 
and would cause a sharp rise in anti-Americanism in Turkey. 
A senior CHP deputy lamented that, unlike in the past, this 
year the US and Turkey are not working together to dissuade 
Congress from passing an AGR.  The Ambassador took the point 
but reiterated that the best way forward is to advance 
Turkey-Armenia relations, as President Obama himself has 
counseled.  However, the committee members insisted that 
ratifying the Turkey-Armenia Protocols is conditioned on a 
solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh problem.  This has now blown 
up all over the Turkish press, and in our view we need to 
refine our public position to keep the political collateral 
damage under control.  (See paragraph 10.) END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (C) Invited to appear before a highly publicized session 
of the Foreign Affairs Committee February 16 to their 
concerns about the House draft Armenian Genocide Resolution, 
the Ambassador opened with a statement applauding the current 
bilateral relationship, noting the recent meeting in Doha 
between the Secretary and PM Erdogan.  He pointed out that 
draft Armenian Genocide Resolutions are a regular feature of 
the Congressional calendar, and emphasized that the U.S. 
Congress is an independent body, as is the Turkish 
Parliament.  The US Administration never knows what the 
result of the Congressional vote will be.  The best way 
forward, he said, is to advance relations between Turkey and 
Armenia, as President Obama himself has stated on several 
occasions. 
 
¶3.  (C) Committee Chairman Murat Mercan replied that two 
obstacles are blocking the passage of the Turkey-Armenia 
Protocols: the recent decision by the Armenian Constitutional 
Court; and the "invasion of Azerbaijan territory" by Armenia 
in and around Nagorno-Karabakh (N-K).  Mercan said Turkey 
would not pass the protocols before the N-K issue is settled. 
 To do so would be contrary to Turkey's strategic interests 
and would be extremely damaging to Turkey-Armenia relations. 
Mercan noted that Turkey's stance on genocide allegations is 
well-known: it advocates establishing a historical commission 
and opening up the state archives.  If the draft AGR is 
passed by the U.S. Congress, he said, Turkish-American 
relations would be damaged beyond repair.  "I cannot even 
predict the extent of such damage." 
 
¶4.  (C) MHP Deputy Bolukbasi focused on the term "genocide," 
arguing that because it was only defined by the United 
Nations in 1948, it cannot be used to describe alleged events 
in 1915.  "Otherwise there would be a legal conflict between 
our countries."  Bolukbasi noted that the Ambassador had 
praised the current bilateral relationship, but on the other 
hand "you accuse us with the most heinous crime of all."  If 
the AGR is passed, it would have dire consequences that would 
be reflected in Turkish policy toward the US.  He suggested 
that the Ambassador's advice to ratify the Turkey-Armenia 
Protocols "implies a covert threat." 
 
¶5.  (C) CHP Deputy Elekdag complained that the Armenian 
Constitutional Court decision altered five central points in 
the Turkey-Armenia Protocols, because it: 
-- does not recognize the validity of the Moscow and Kars 
Treaties; 
-- verifies that Armenia has set its sights on Turkish 
territory in eastern Anatolia; 
-- opposes setting up a historical commission to examine the 
1915 events; 
-- advocates continuing the "genocide" campaign; 
-- stipulates that all agreements between Turkey and Armenia 
should be in compliance with the Armenia Constitution and the 
Armenia Declaration of Independence. 
 
¶6.  (C) Elekdag also criticized Yerevan's departure from 
international norms which, he said, dictate that agreements 
signed by foreign ministers should be submitted directly for 
ratification and not put through a secondary process such as 
a court review.  The Ambassador noted that MFA officials are 
currently in Washington to discuss the legal aspects of the 
protocols, and reiterated that the US stands ready to assist 
with relations between Turkey and Armenia.  Pressed by 
Elekdag, the Ambassador said that neither he nor any of the 
Department lawyers we had consulted could agree with 
Elekdag's analysis. 
 
ANKARA 00000257  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶7.  (C) CHP Deputy Oymen said that Turkey has dealt with the 
problem of draft AGRs in the past, often by working together 
with executive branch officials and by inviting congressmen 
and staffers to Turkey.  "We have neglected to do that this 
year."  Turkey should also engage the American press to 
convince the Congress about the Turkish case.  Oymen pointed 
out that the Armenians are not only referring to the 1915 
events, but also those of 1920-1923, when the Republic of 
Turkey had been created.  The Armenians are seeking to settle 
"old scores" not only with the Ottomans, but also with Turkey. 
 
¶8.  (C) AKP Deputy Cerci compared the draft AGR to the sword 
of Damocles hanging over Turkey's head.  CHP Deputy Aritman 
predicted that there would be a sharp and irrevocable rise in 
anti-Americanism in Turkey if the US Congress passes the 
draft AGR.  "The Turkish people place more importance on US 
Congressional Resolutions than on the resolutions of other 
countries' parliaments." 
 
¶9.  (C) COMMENT: The commentary from the Foreign Affairs 
Committee members provides a flavor of both the political 
problem that the GOT faces in getting the Protocols through 
Parliament, and the danger of a Parliamentary reaction 
against the US if an AGR passes or if the President uses the 
word "genocide" in his April 24 statement. 
 
¶10.  (C) COMMENT (cont.): The problem we have is that our 
current public position, no matter how we sugarcoat it, 
amounts to a veiled threat, something the MPs and the media 
have immediately seized upon: i.e., if the Turks want to 
maximize the chances of stopping an AGR or use of "genocide" 
by the Administration, then they should "move forward on 
Turkish-Armenian rapprochement" (i.e., ratify the Protocols), 
albeit without any USG guarantee.  The problem is that the 
"reverse of the coin" is also logical -- if "genocide" is 
deployed in a resolution or an Administration statement, then 
the chances of Turkish-Armenian rapprochement brokered by the 
US will be dead for a generation; and the chances of a 
conflict somehow along the Turkish-Armenian-Azerbaijan nexus 
significantly increased.  If we are sure of one thing out 
here, it is that.  Logically, then, from the Turkish 
standpoint, the USG should in some way in fact or in rhetoric 
be trying to slow down or block Congress's effort on the AGR. 
As the Turks see no sign of this, they compare it to past 
joint Turkish-US mobilization of effort against the AGR and 
conclude that we, at best, are trying to threaten/pressure 
Turkey into ratification or, at worst, will be happy to see 
both ratification and then an AGR.  That sounds incredible 
but this is the paranoid world we live in here.  Absent some 
modification of what we tell the Turks, Congress and the 
media, public pressure on the GOT to lash out at us with 
their own counter threats and actions will mount rapidly. 
Jeffrey 
 
           "Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.s 
gov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turkey"