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DE RUEHAM #0351/01 0411217
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R 101217Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY AMMAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6880
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 000351 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/ELA MGREGONIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/28/2020 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM JO
SUBJECT: JORDANIAN PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES ALREADY 
JOCKEYING FOR UPCOMING ELECTIONS 
 
Classified By: Ambassador R. Stephen Beecroft for Reasons 1.4 (b) and ( 
d) 
 
¶1. (S/NF) SUMMARY.  With GOJ assurances that parliamentary 
elections will take place in the final quarter of 2010, 
prospective candidates have already started planning 
campaigns to enter the next legislature, despite current 
ambiguity about the content of the new electoral law.  In 
separate meetings, two likely candidates expressed contempt 
for the extremely unpopular parliament dismissed in 2009, 
although both doubted that the new electoral law would bring 
procedural changes to improve the membership and function of 
this legislative body.  In addition, the candidates discussed 
a series of topics, including the role of regional loyalties 
among Palestinian-origin Jordanian voters and the costs of 
running a campaign in Jordan. End Summary. 
 
"Tribal" Politics...Palestinian Style 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶2. (S/NF) On January 21, PolOff and EconOff met with Wa'el 
al-Jaabari, a wealthy West Amman businessman of Palestinian 
descent who has never served in parliament, but is 
considering running in the upcoming elections.  Al-Jaabari, 
along with virtually all contacts willing to discuss the 
upcoming elections, assumed that one of the most heavily 
criticized aspects of the current Jordanian electoral law, 
the one man-one vote system with multiple candidates, will 
remain virtually unchanged. 
 
(NOTE: "One man-one vote" in a Jordanian context refers to a 
controversial provision under which each voter casts a vote 
for a single candidate within a district that elects multiple 
MPs from a longer list of candidates. Many analysts argue 
that this system magnifies family and tribal influence by: 
 
    --pressuring voters to give their one vote to someone 
they know personally who can be petitioned for services or 
favors 
 
    -- undermining political party development by encouraging 
candidates to base campaigns around their personal 
reputations, rather than a stated policy platform, and 
 
     -- diluting citizens' voting power by only allowing them 
to vote for a small percentage of the total people who will 
represent their district.  END NOTE.) 
 
¶3. (S/NF) Forecasting his chances for victory under the 
current system, al-Jaabari has concluded that support from 
families originating from Hebron, his ancestral home, could 
potentially carry him to victory.  He indicated that 
Jordanians of Palestinian descent tend to vote by these 
historical regional groupings, which often play a critical 
role in the races for seats traditionally held by Jordanians 
of Palestinian descent. 
 
¶4. (S/NF) Al-Jaabari's frank comments indicate that regional 
background seems to play a similar role with 
Palestinian-origin electorates as the tribal affiliations do 
with East Bankers.  Al-Jaabari, whose grandfather was an 
influential mayor of Hebron from 1948 to 1976 and was very 
close to late King Hussein, indicated that he would face two 
main hurdles in his bid for a seat in the new parliament: 
first, uniting his own large and sometimes fractious family 
behind his candidacy; and second, convincing the other 
prominent Hebron families not to field a candidate of their 
own.  Indeed, he stated that if another significant Hebron 
candidate runs, "we will split the vote and have no chance at 
all."   These issues will likely be settled in quiet family 
meetings over the coming weeks. 
 
A Seasoned Politician Plans his Return 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (S/NF) Former MP and International Visitor Program (IVP) 
participant Nasar al-Qaisi has a different set of concerns. 
Al-Qaisi is from a smaller and less influential East Bank 
family from the relatively wealthy Madaba area and he won his 
seat by virtue of an intensely disciplined and organized 
campaign he built around his contacts from his medical 
practice.  Although his family consists of only around 300 
members, he won his heavily populated district with more than 
11,000 votes.  His campaign in 2007 required the mobilization 
of thousands of paid volunteers, the staffing of 
sophisticated campaign headquarters in a secret location 
outside of his district, and the rental of more than 600 
vehicles for election day, highlighting how expensive a 
proposition a parliamentary campaign can be.  In the absence 
 
AMMAN 00000351  002 OF 002 
 
 
of an effective party structure, these costs are borne 
entirely by the candidate himself, and can easily run into 
hundreds of thousands of dollars. (NOTE: Prior to its 
dissolution, the salary for members of the lower chamber was 
about $3,600 per month. END NOTE.)  Unlike most of his 
colleagues, Qaisi also operates an efficient and well-funded 
constituent services office, largely out of his own pocket. 
 
¶6. (S/NF) Al-Qaisi stated that he has heard little from the 
tight-lipped committee working on a new electoral law, 
despite the fact that it has met several times behind closed 
doors in recent weeks.  Like Jaabari, Al-Qaisi also 
anticipates no change to the single vote system, but he says 
that his sources believe that the new system could entail a 
single vote for a single candidate in each district - but 
that these districts could consist of non-contiguous areas. 
Districts could then be drawn from multiple dispersed 
regions, a procedure that will likely produce accusations of 
gerrymandering.  (Comment:  In discussions with senior-level 
Jordanian contacts, the concept of non-contiguous districts 
has not been raised and appears to be an unlikely outcome in 
the new law.  End Comment.) 
 
¶7. (S/NF) Al-Qaisi stated that he was concerned about the 
timing of the election.  With the PM's announcement that 
elections will take place toward the end of 2010, Al-Qaisi 
felt that the Islamic Action Front (IAF) and other Islamists 
would gain a considerable tactical advantage on the heels of 
the Eid al-Fitr holiday in mid-September.  Al-Qaisi indicated 
that the Islamists had routinely used the mosques as nerve 
centers for their campaign efforts in the past, and that an 
election soon after Ramadan would enable Islamist candidates 
to make their final push with full coffers drawn from holiday 
mosque donations.  He felt, however, that much of this 
benefit will have dissipated by December.  In sum, he 
believes moderates would fare better with a later election 
date. 
 
¶8. (S/NF) Al-Qaisi noted with concern the emergence in his 
district and elsewhere of what he considered a conservative 
"Salafi-like" group known as the "Tahrireen,"  who are 
typically young men distinguished by conservative dress and 
attitudes.  Although these youth would likely deny the 
legitimacy of the electoral process, he predicted that they 
could, if galvanized, form a solid voting bloc for Islamist 
candidates.  He estimated that there were perhaps 5-6,000 
"Tahrireen" in his district alone.  (NOTE: Post has little 
further information on these persons, although young men in 
conservative attire are common outside of West Amman.  Other 
contacts have confirmed the existence of this grouping and 
stated that they are more of an informal movement of 
alienated Islamist youth rather than a structured 
organization.  In other countries, however, "Tahrireen" can 
refer to supporters of the multinational Hizb al-Tahrir. This 
organization is banned in Jordan. END NOTE.) 
 
¶9. (S/NF) COMMENT.  Both men clearly believe that we will see 
more continuity than change in the new electoral law, and as 
a result, neither of them envision a significantly different 
election dynamic.  They believe the current electoral system 
is likely to survive largely intact and they both underscore 
the tremendous personal expense candidates incur during the 
elections -- expenses that far exceed their official salaries 
as MPs.  Both quietly voiced disapproval of the role of the 
security services in previous elections, but anticipated the 
services will play a similar role in the future.   Even 
al-Qaisi, who was among the most progressive thinkers in the 
old parliament, sees little role for political parties and 
shares the common view that Jordanian politics has little to 
do with platforms or ideas and everything to do with 
patronage and the delivery of government services and 
largesse to one's own constituents. END COMMENT. 
Beecroft