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PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
DE RUEHDS #0365/01 0530942
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FM AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7852
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEPADJ/CJTF HOA PRIORITY
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUZEFAA/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 000365 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/17/2020 
TAGS: PREL MASS MARR SO SU ET
SUBJECT: PM MELES URGES U.S. TO PLAY STRONGER LEADERSHIP 
ROLE ON SUDAN 
 
Classified By: CDA John Yates for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (C)  With few exceptions, Meles conveyed to visting 
AFRICOM Commander General Ward what has become his standard 
message on regional security:  First, Sudan is the greatest 
threat to stability on the continent, and civil war there is 
Ethiopia's "nightmare scenario."  Second, although al-Shabaab 
is weakened, Sheikh Sharif's Transitional Federal Government 
(TFG) is Somalia's only hope, and is in desperate need of 
support.  Meles urged the U.S. to play a stronger leadership 
role in Sudan, follow the road map established by the African 
Union, and encourage other international partners to play a 
supporting role.  He told Ward the Inter-Governmental 
Authority on Development (IGAD) is developing an 
accountability mechanism to boost donor confidence that 
donations to the TFG will be used as they were intended to 
be, and said IGAD is encouraging all donors to provide 
support directly to the TFG.  Meles told Ward he appreciated 
the U.S.'s continued cooperation on security issues, and 
specifically thanked him for AFRICOM assistance after the 
crash of Ethiopian Airlines flight 409.  End summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Visiting AFRICOM Commander General William Ward met 
with Prime Minister Meles Zenawi on February 9 for 60 
minutes.  Meles was joined by Special Assistant Gebretensae 
Gebremichael.  The U.S. was also represented by Charge John 
Yates, U.S. Defense Attache Col. Bradley Anderson, and PolOff 
Skye Justice (notetaker). 
 
Appreciation for Strong Security Cooperation 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) General Ward opened the meeting by expressing pleasure 
with the strong security cooperation between the U.S. and 
Ethiopia, thanking Meles for his assistance moving forward on 
1206 programs, and expressing condolences over the loss of 
many Ethiopians on Ethiopian Airlines flight 409.  Meles told 
Ward Ethiopia was grateful not only for planned assistance, 
but also for unplanned assistance, as in the case of flight 
¶409.  He said he appreciated the open communication the 
Government of Ethiopia (GoE) enjoyed with the U.S. regarding 
security matters, which helped the Ethiopian military 
function more effectively, and helped the two countries work 
more effectively together. 
 
Meles Urges U.S. to Play Stronger Role on Sudan 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶4. (C) Asked by Ward to share his analysis of the way forward 
in Somalia and Sudan, Meles said: "The one that gives me 
nightmares is Sudan."  Sudan "could realistically blow up 
within a year," he said, "and if it does, its impact will be 
many times bigger than Somalia."  Reiterating what has become 
a standard theme, Meles stressed Sudan's history of extremism 
and jihadism, and strong impact on stability across the 
African continent.  A peaceful divorce between north and 
south must be engineered before the 2011 referendum, Meles 
said, and tensions in Darfur and the east cannot be ignored. 
He added that beyond merely accepting southern independence, 
Khartoum must work with Juba to resolve resource, 
citizenship, and boundary issues before 2011. 
 
¶5. (C) Meles strongly urged the U.S. to take a more 
aggressive stance leading the way forward in Sudan.  Using a 
medical analogy, Meles said "there are too many doctors in 
the operating theater" that is Sudan, and "someone needs to 
be the lead surgeon."  The U.S. must play a strong leadership 
role as it did with the CPA, he said, with other 
international partners "chipping in as needed."  Meles added, 
"Every African's nightmare scenario is civil war in Sudan, 
and the U.S. should treat it as such."  Asked by General Ward 
what resources were most needed to ensure peace in Sudan, 
Meles said the military and financial cost will be low so 
long as problems are addressed before a crisis.  However, 
coordinating international partners will require major 
diplomatic resources, as the U.S. must tell other countries 
active in Sudan to step aside as the U.S. takes a more 
prominent role.  Meles further urged the U.S. to move forward 
using the action plan set out by the African Union, adding 
that African leaders were fully supportive of that plan. 
 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00000365  002 OF 002 
 
 
Somalia is Less Worrisome, but TFG Needs Support 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶6. (C) Describing Somalia as "a known quantity" less 
worrisome than Sudan, Meles assessed that al-Shabaab had 
become more and more politically isolated, and had been hurt 
by the occupation of its "heartland" by moderate Islamist 
groups.  Al-Shabaab's leaders are increasingly foreign, he 
said, and no longer have strong clan connections.  The 
positive side of this is that weakened ties will make it 
easier to defeat al-Shabaab militarily, Meles said, while the 
negative side is that a group promoting an international 
extremist agenda will neither respect the will of the Somali 
people nor act with their best interests in mind. 
 
¶7. (C) Meles reiterated the TFG's need for financial support, 
and criticized donors other than the U.S. for not responding 
to this need.  He assessed that many Gulf states were not 
pleased to see moderate Muslims in Somalia allied with 
non-Muslims to fight against extremist Muslims they support, 
and were "neutral at best, and at worst working against peace 
in Somalia."  Meles said Egypt was uncomfortable with the 
TFG's relationship with Ethiopia and Kenya, but the root of 
this discomfort was the Nile rather than conditions in 
Somalia.  He assessed that the Saudis were waiting to see 
whether the TFG remains in power, but would eventually 
support it. 
 
¶8. (C) Meles strongly criticized European nations for funding 
international and non-governmental organizations with massive 
overhead, and relayed that he had told Spanish Premier Jose 
Luis Zapatero "the cost of corruption in the TFG can't 
possibly be as costly" as NGOs.  He noted that the 
Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) was 
developing an accountability mechanism with the TFG to give 
donors assure donors that funds they provide to the TFG would 
be used for the purposes for which they were intended.  IGAD 
foreign ministers plan to travel to Europe in the near future 
to make the case for direct funding of the TFG, Meles said, 
and the decision by the TFG to hire an international 
accounting firm to monitor accountability should boost donor 
confidence. 
 
YATES