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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 000328 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR MGAVIN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/17/2020 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL ET
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIAN OPPOSITION LEADERS VOICE CONCERNS ABOUT 
ELECTION PROCESS TO U/S OTERO 
 
Classified By: Under CDA John Yates for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (C) Leaders of the opposition Forum for Justice and 
Democratic Dialogue (Forum) coalition told Under Secretary of 
State for Democracy and Global Affairs Maria Otero they had 
little confidence that Ethiopia's May election will be free 
or fair, and complained that their party activists are being 
harassed and imprisoned.  The foreign relations head of the 
All Ethiopia Unity Party (AEUP), which helped draft the 
recently enacted electoral Code of Conduct (CoC), shared this 
lack of confidence in the election process but added that his 
party has had a reasonably positive experience working with 
the ruling party through the mechanisms established by the 
CoC. 
 
¶2. (C) The opposition leaders urged the U.S. to publicly 
condemn what they viewed as a closing of political space in 
Ethiopia and to privately push the Government of Ethiopia 
(GoE) to address this issue.  U/S Otero replied that the U.S. 
recognizes that political space in Ethiopia has become 
increasingly restricted and assured them that the U.S. would 
continue to press the GoE to ensure a truly free and 
transparent election, adding that senior USG officials were 
watching Ethiopia closely.  Otero further encouraged the 
group to provide specific examples of harassment and 
intimidation of opposition candidates that the U.S. and 
international community could raise with the GoE.  End 
summary. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Visiting Under Secretary of State for Democracy and 
Global Affairs Maria Otero met with opposition leaders on 
February 1 for 60 minutes.  The Forum coalition was 
represented by three senior leaders:  Bulcha Demeksa, Member 
of Parliament, Oromo Federalist Democratic Movement (OFDM) 
Chairman, Forum Co-Chair;  Beyene Petros, Member of 
Parliament, United Ethiopian Democratic Force (UEDF) 
Chairman, Forum Co-Chair;  Seeye Abraha, Unity for Democracy 
and Justice (UDJ) Vice Chairman, Forum Co-Chair.  Yaicob 
Like, All Ethiopia Unity Party (AEUP) Foreign Relations 
Chair, also participated.  The U.S. was also represented by 
NSC Senior Director for African Affairs Michelle Gavin, DCM 
Tulinabo Mushingi, Pol/Econ Chief Kirk McBride, Otero Special 
Advisor Nicole Goldin, Otero Special Assistant Caroline 
Mauldin, and PolOff Skye Justice (notetaker). 
 
Forum Leaders Share Grim Election Outlook 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) Bulcha Demeksa, of the Forum, told U/S Otero that 
several of his party's candidates had been recently detained 
by authorities, despite GoE claims that there are no 
political prisoners in Ethiopia.  The GoE will hold an 
election in name only, he said, and there is no excitement 
surrounding the election because everyone knows the status 
quo will not change.  Bulcha said "foreign observers should 
have arrived two months ago," and criticized the European 
Union and African Union for yielding to GoE demands that they 
come later than originally scheduled.  The Ethiopian People's 
Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) has officials and 
informants from senior ranks of government all the way down 
to the family level, he said, and the people are afraid to 
challenge the ruling party.  Bulcha criticized the recently 
enacted CoC as protecting the rights of only certain 
political parties, and said the Forum would prefer that only 
the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) govern the 
electoral process, rather than the structure established by 
the CoC.  (Comment:  The AEUP decision to engage the EPRDF 
and sign the CoC generated considerable animosity between its 
leaders and those of the Forum.  This tension was evident 
during U/S Otero's meeting, as in Bulcha's comment on the 
Forum's disdain for the CoC, but the parties remained cordial 
throughout. End comment.) 
 
¶5. (C) Seeye Abraha, also representing the Forum, noted the 
continued imprisonment of his UDJ party chairwoman Birtukan 
Midekssa, and expressed regret that "while the government 
purports to promote women's rights, it treats women who 
actually speak out for their rights with extraordinary 
brutality."  He acknowledged that Ethiopia is one of the most 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00000328  002 OF 003 
 
 
stable countries in the Horn of Africa, but stressed that 
"security without democracy is not sustainable."  Seeye said 
holding an election in the absence of respect for human 
rights, the rule of law, freedom of the press, and freedom of 
movement - as he assessed was the case in Ethiopia - is 
meaningless. 
 
¶6. (C) Beyene Petros, also of the Forum, said the GoE's 
promises to engage in free, democratic discourse have been 
revealed as meaningless.  In 2005, "the door was opened 
slightly, but has since been slammed shut."  After that 
election, Beyene said, the GoE systematically enacted laws 
and restrictive parliamentary procedures, such as drastically 
reducing time limits for member presentations.  Procedurally, 
he added, the EPRDF has made dialogue impossible.  "My 
constituents paid dearly to get me elected," Beyene said, 
"and what to I give them back?  Nothing.  I cannot even speak 
on their behalf." 
 
¶7. (C) Beyene added that he joined the Forum hoping that the 
EPRDF would negotiate on a broad range of electoral issues, 
but he has lost hope.  The NEBE and public election observers 
are not independent, he said, but rather were previously 
registered members of the EPRDF.  Foreign observers cannot 
hope to monitor the entire country, Beyene said, and 
opposition parties have insufficient access to the media.  He 
said "EPRDF cadres in Eastern Wolaita" (Oromia Region) beat 
and vandalized the cars of Forum leaders - all senior 
parliamentarians - attempting to register candidates 
(septel).  Beyene described the electoral process as "a 
fiasco staged for international consumption," and said the 
result would be the same as the 2008 local elections (in 
which the ruling party won over 99 percent of contested 
seats) unless the GoE makes a dramatic course correction. 
 
AEUP Describes Modest Success with Code of Conduct 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶8. (C) Yaicob Like of AUEP, the largest opposition party to 
sign the CoC, had a different perspective.  Yaicob said his 
party's experience working with the EPRDF under the CoC had 
"not been bad."  After signing, AEUP submitted a list of 208 
political prisoners to the Joint Council of Political Parties 
established by the CoC, and 118 of them have since been 
released.  He added, however, that harassment and 
imprisonment of party members has continued.  (Comment:  When 
discussing the complaints his party had registered under the 
CoC, Yaicob referred to the Joint Council, EPRDF, and GoE 
almost interchangeably.  End comment.) 
 
¶9. (C) According to Yaicob, AEUP's office directors in the 
Amhara and Afar regions were recently beaten and imprisoned 
by EPRDF supporters and EPRDF-controlled sercurity forces. 
He said the EPRDF was cordial in reaction to AEUP complaints 
about these incidents but slow to act.  As a result of these 
experiences, AEUP formed a committee with the Joint 
Council/EPRDF to travel to Amhara and investigate specific 
cases.  He said the EPRDF had acknowledged that 95 percent of 
the AEUP complaints were meritorious and the two parties 
resolved them on the spot with only two party members in the 
region remaining in detention.  Yaicob further noted that 
while his party has generally received sympathetic responses 
to its complaints from senior officials in Addis Ababa, those 
responses do not always translate to action outside the 
capital. 
 
Forum Leaders Criticize U.S. Reaction to Abuses, Urge Action 
--------------------------------------------- --------------- 
 
¶10. (C) AEUP's Yaicob told Otero and Gavin that given an 
opening, the Ethiopian people are ready for change.  In the 
past, he said, change has come quickly in Ethiopia, and with 
little formal organization.  The 2005 election should prove 
to anyone that change is possible.  The AEUP, he said, is 
ready to move forward under the CoC, and will hold the EPRDF 
to its commitments.  The Forum's Beyene expressed concern 
with what he perceived as a U.S. message that change does not 
come overnight, noting that Ethiopians have been waiting for 
change for 35 years.  The CoC "is merely window dressing," he 
said, and negotiation to date with the opposition has not 
been genuine, but undertaken by the EPRDF as the easiest 
means to seem cooperative without actually making substantive 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00000328  003 OF 003 
 
 
concessions. 
 
¶11. (C) The Forum's Seeye said it was unfortunate that the 
world, and the U.S. in particular, were not speaking out 
about the abuses of the GoE.  He reiterated that the Forum 
promotes peaceful change, but noted that other groups in 
Ethiopia are willing to overthrow the government by violent 
means.  By participating in the elections, Seeye said, the 
Forum risks exposing its members to the same violent 
treatment they received in 2005.  He urged the U.S. to 
continue pushing Meles to open political space in order to 
allow the Ethiopian people to participate in the elections 
without fear.  He warned that the GoE was interested not in 
holding free elections but in legitimizing their rule, and 
the U.S. was perceived by the GoE as the main legitimizer. 
The Forum's Bulcha acknowledged that the U.S. "can't order a 
sovereign state to do anything," but urged the U.S. to take 
stronger action, given its status in Ethiopia.  "You should 
speak out publicly," he said, adding: "People here want to 
know what President Obama thinks about Ethiopia.  Even now, 
we don't know what the Obama administration thinks about our 
country." 
 
¶12. (C) In response, U/S Otero told the assembled opposition 
leaders that the U.S. recognized that political space in 
Ethiopia was increasingly restricted, and those restrictions 
would likely continue until after the election.  The Obama 
administration is working to open political space in Ethiopia 
and all over the world, she said, and our discussion with the 
GoE and EPRDF are by no means limited to security.  Otero 
noted that during a two-hour meeting the U.S. delegation (to 
the AU Summit) had held with Prime Minister Meles the 
previous day, three-quarters of the discussion had focused on 
democracy.  She assured the opposition that the U.S. would 
continue to press the GoE to open political space, and that 
senior State Department and administration officials were 
watching Ethiopia closely.  Otero encouraged the group to 
provide specific examples of harassment and intimidation of 
opposition candidates that the U.S. and international 
community could raise with the GoE.  NSC Africa Director 
Gavin quoted President Obama's Accra speech, relaying that 
governance is the keystone of U.S.-Africa relations, and 
other U.S. interests in Africa cannot be sustained without 
good governance. 
 
¶13. (U) U/S Otero and NSC Director Gavin have cleared this 
message. 
 
YATES