VZCZCXRO3058
RR RUEHPA
DE RUEHUJA #0207/01 0561239
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
R 251239Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY ABUJA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0420
INFO ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 0002
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 0018
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0015
RUEHOS/AMCONSUL LAGOS
RUEHRO/AMEMBASSY ROME 0017
RUEHWL/USDAO WELLINGTON NZ
RUEKJCS/OSD WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUZEJAA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 ABUJA 000207 
 
SIPDIS 
STATE FOR  AF/FO, AF/W, AF/RSA, INR/AA 
OSD FOR DASD HUDDLESTON 
NSC FOR GAVIN 
PARIS FOR POL (BAIN AND KANEDA) 
LONDON FOR POL (PLORD) 
ROME FOR AF WATCHER 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR AU 
AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE PASS TO AMEMBASSY MALABO 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/02/25 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINS PINR MARR NI
SUBJECT: GON Chief of Army: Political Climate Dangerous, Politicians 
Putting Stability at Risk 
 
REF: ABUJA 181; CARSON-SANDERS FEB 24 TELECONS 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: SandersRR, Amb, state, EXEC; REASON: 1.4(B), (D) 
 
¶1.  (S) Summary: Chief of Army Staff (COAS) Dambazau, concerned 
about the current political environment in Nigeria, told the 
Ambassador February 24 in a one-on-one session at a safe house in 
Abuja, that he still considers Goodluck Jonathan the 
Commander-in-Chief of Nigerian Armed Forces until such time as 
there is another constitutional action or manifestation that 
confers that authority back to ailing President Yar'Adua. He said 
the armed forces were not alerted to the return of the President 
until his aircraft had taken off already from Saudi Arabia. Up 
until this point, Dambazau stressed he had not been worried about 
stability, but admitted that Nigeria had entered a phase where 
anything can happen.  He is committed to watching out for any signs 
of a coup or any involvements or subliminal efforts by politicians, 
particularly from the North, to try to encourage such an action. 
Dambazau said the most important thing to him was for Nigeria to 
remain stable and that he would not sit back and allow the country 
to become unstable, noting rule of law needs to prevail. He hoped 
that the politicians would get their act together and put the 
country back on track. For him, his hopes rest with the National 
Assembly right now, notably the Senate, to try to find 
constitutional and rule of law ways out of the mess.  The COAS said 
that it has been decades since he has seen the country polarized so 
severely, particularly within the GON Cabinet (FEC), along ethnic 
and region lines, and that the FEC was bankrupt in its ability to 
provide any executive direction. The FEC was further divided into 
two camps, Yar'Adua's and Jonathan's, but strictly for either 
political or financial gain.  In both cases, Yar'Adua and Jonathan 
had allowed themselves to be "caged off" by people that do not have 
the best interest of the nation at heart.  He concluded that 
Jonathan has an opportunity, but he is squandering it as he is 
currying favor to special interest and its beginning to show. Asked 
what could the USG do to help Nigeria at this delicate time, the 
COAS said to tell Jonathan to be his own man; stop bowing to former 
President Obasanjo as that makes everyone nervous; and, standup as 
a national leader, not a regional one. Meanwhile an irate Chairman 
of the Governors' Forum, Kwara Governor Saraki, called the 
Ambassador midnight Feb 25 to complain fiercely about the USG's 
February 24 statement on the political environment saying the USG 
was not giving Nigeria a chance to work through the situation. Also 
on February 24, the Senate passed the first stages toward a 
constitutional amendment of sections 145 and 190 requiring 
Presidents and Governors to transfer to their deputies in writing 
after 14 days of being out of the country. End Summary. 
 
 
 
¶2. (S) In a late evening February 24 meeting, Ambassador met with 
Nigerian Chief of Staff of the Army (COAS) Abdulrahman Bello 
Dambazau at a safe house on the outskirts of Abuja to discuss the 
current political climate.  Datt and RSO accompanied Ambassador but 
Dambazau wanted only a one-on-one. The COAS made several key points 
during the two hour session focused on the confusing leadership 
situation, what he hopes will happen in the next 10-14 days, and 
the importance of Nigeria remaining stable. Dambazau, who had met 
with Assistant Secretary Carson on February 8 (ref A), said his 
views had changed drastically since that time on the fragile 
political environment. At that time he was not concerned with 
stability; but, he is now. On the Presidential Guard being called 
out to escort Yar'Adua from the airport, Dambazau said this was 
appropriate and standard, as they are responsible for all 
ceremonial activity concerning the President. 
 
ABUJA 00000207  002 OF 004 
 
 
-------------------------------------- 
 
Who is in Charge: Yar'Adua or Jonathan? 
 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (S) In response to the question as to whom the COAS believes is 
the Commander-in-Chief of Nigerian Armed Forces at this time, 
Dambazau, a northerner said, Goodluck Jonathan. In the view of the 
COAS, Jonathan holds that authority until such time as either the 
National Assembly implements a constitutional action returning 
authority to Yar'Adua, or there is some other manifestation that 
shows the President is capable and has resumed his duties. Dambazau 
said it was unfortunate that the entire Yar'Adua health situation 
had not been handled well. There were a few people around the 
ailing President who were manipulating the situation for both power 
and money, he noted.  The COAS highlighted that the "Katsina group" 
around Yar'Adua has "caged" the President off and even before his 
departure to Saudi Arabia more and more Yar'Adua was not being seen 
as a national figure.  It is unfortunate that Jonathan is beginning 
to do the same thing.  The people that Jonathan has around him now 
are behaving just as badly as the Katsina clique, with Jonathan 
handing out favors to his ethnic group, which the Army Chief sid 
was not/not Ijaw.  Dambazau said the Acting/Vice President comes 
from the smallest ethnic minority in Bayelsa State, and that he is 
beginning to behave like a "sectional," leader and less like a 
national figure with national responsibilities.  The COAS said he 
has had several meetings with Jonathan and that he is a "simple man 
who is easily influenced."  He gave the example of the recent 
transfer of naira 19 billion of GON funds to a Niger Delta 
environmental project that was done at the end of a meeting that 
Jonathan had with a group from his region. Dambazau said this was 
done outside of the normal Cabinet decision-making process based on 
a meeting he had had with his "kinsmen." 
 
--------------------------- 
 
What Can the USG Do to Help? 
 
---------------------------- 
 
¶4. (S) Ambassador asked the Chief of the Army if he had seen the 
USG statement noting our concern about the uncertain political 
environment, which she noted was tough and one of our high water 
marks on the situation.  She added that Nigeria cannot afford to 
fail and that we wanted to ensure right from the beginning that 
everyone understood this. Dambazau said yes he had seen it, and 
thought it was tough, but understood our position. Ambassador 
explained that she expected a significant amount of blow back from 
some quarters of government, but it was important to put these 
markers down now because we want Nigeria to do the right things 
doing this transition period.  Dambazau said that he hoped the USG 
"would give Nigeria time" to find its footing. He was "counting on 
the National Assembly, particularly the Senate," to find a way out 
of the political morass. However, he added, that too may not 
happen.  Ambassador said that the USG would be watching the 
political situation over the next 10-14 days very closely to see 
who is doing what and where the center of power ends up. We have 
strong concerns about the situation being manipulated by a "few 
people around the President" issuing edicts in the name of the 
President when he cannot make decisions for himself.  How can 
anyone trust any decision or statement coming out of the Villa, not 
knowing if it is really from the President or a surrogate with 
 
ABUJA 00000207  003 OF 004 
 
 
malicious intentions? Dambazau agreed. Ambassador also noted her 
concern about the very carefully worded February 24 press statement 
from the Villa announcing Yar'Adua's return; not/not referring to 
Jonathan as Acting President, but as the Vice President; and, 
stating that Jonathan "would oversee the affairs of state," instead 
of noting he still retained authority over government until the 
President's health improved.  She also added that Yar'Adua's wife, 
Turai, was scheduled to have a meeting with Jonathan later the 
evening of February 24 instead of Jonathan actually seeing the 
President. 
 
 
 
--------------- 
 
Wither Jonathan? 
 
--------------- 
 
¶5. (S) On the Acting/Vice President Jonathan, the COAS said that he 
was too easily influenced by others and that his biggest Achilles 
heel and what most northerners were worried about was Jonathan's 
relationship to former President Obasanjo (OBJ). Dambazau said OBJ 
is "in and out of Aguda House, Jonathan's residence, several times 
a day now, and it is making people uncomfortable, particularly in 
the North."  "One thing he must do is show people that he is his 
own man."  It appears to everyone now that whatever Jonathan is 
saying is being orchestrated directly by Obasanjo.  Ambassador 
revealed that she had a request into see Jonathan for February 26, 
but given the current political situation it was possible that the 
meeting would be cancelled.  However, if it was not, how useful did 
Dambazau think it would be to put a marker down with Jonathan on 
these issues, particularly stepping far away from Obasanjo; showing 
leadership as a national figure, not a regional one; and, proving 
he has decision-making independence?  The COAS said he believed 
that these were important messages for the USG to convey, and that 
we should do so soon.  Right now the country needs to not only have 
faith in its leaders, but also believe that its leaders have the 
best interest of the nation at heart. 
 
 
 
--------- 
 
Stability 
 
--------- 
 
¶6. (S) Dambazau highlighted that Nigeria's stability is at risk 
now, and that this is one thing that senior generals like him could 
not allow, noting that any military action would only be along the 
lines of law and order.  He added that the politicians really need 
to find a solution soon.  The COAS said that the Nigerian military 
is not interested in running the country; this is not our role. We 
have worked hard to professionalize, we are recognized for our 
peacekeeping efforts around the world, and we believe in democracy 
and civilian rule.  Ambassador asked the COAS if he received an 
order from the Villa to call out the troops or execute a military 
action, how he would respond. Dambazau was clear. "There are only 
three people that I take orders from, and this is clear in our 
chain of authority and command," he said.  They are: the Minister 
of Defense, the Chief of Defense Staff, and the Commander-in-Chief 
of the Armed Forces, who he considers at this time to be Jonathan. 
 
ABUJA 00000207  004 OF 004 
 
 
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Comment 
 
------- 
 
¶7. (S) Clearly the General is worried. This was a more pensive 
Dambazau then just two weeks ago when USG officials met with him at 
the CMR (ref A). He, like the USG, is closely watching the 
political situation. He, also like the USG, hopes that unauthorized 
and questionable edicts do not start coming from the Villa. The 
Mission here has no expectation that Yar'Adua will ever physically 
emerge in public or that he is in charge of his mental faculties. 
We will also not believe any information coming out of the Villa. 
Dambazau, although he thinks Jonathan is easily influenced and a 
"simple man," still believes that he is in a position/position -- 
regardless of whether he carries the title of acting president or 
vice president - to help steer the country out of the current mess. 
However, in order to do that and gain respect, Jonathan must begin 
to transform himself into a national figure, drop OBJ, and work 
with the National Assembly, particularly the Senate to find 
solutions in the best interest of Nigeria. The question is whether 
Jonathan can and will do this. Ambassador plans to make the 
"dropping OBJ issue" one of the center pieces of any conversation 
she is able to have with Jonathan over the next couple of days. She 
will also raise the importance of the Acting/Vice President to be 
seen as a national, rather than regional figure. As per options 
discussed in ref B, Mission looks forward to moving forward on 
proposed future telecons between Jonathan and current and past USG 
officials, and possible other high-level visits to continue to put 
pressure on Nigerian politicians to get their act together; show 
better leadership; and, do a better job of protecting the interest 
of the Nigerian people and the nation. What we do not want because 
of poor leadership is a Niger-like move where a military group 
walks into the Nigerian Cabinet meeting and takes over. 
SANDERS