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S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 000205 
 
SIPDIS 
NOFORN 
STATE FOR AF/FO, AF/W, AF/RSA, AF/PDPA, DRL, INR/AA 
AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE PASS TO AMEMBASSY MALABO 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/02/24 
TAGS: PGOV OVIP PINR MCAP PREL SOCI KDEM KPAO NI
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT YAR'ADUA RETURNS TO NIGERIA: WHAT NEXT? 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: James P. McAnulty, Political Counselor, U.S. Embassy 
Abuja, Political Section; REASON: 1.4(B), (D) 
 
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SUMMARY 
 
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¶1. (S) Nigerian President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua's secretive return to 
Abuja at roughly 0230 February 24 created new uncertainty over who 
has actual charge of Nigerian Government (GON) decision-making, and 
raised new concerns about a military intervention.  The absence of 
any images of Yar'Adua's return compounds the mystery.  The 
February 9 non-binding resolutions designating Vice President 
Jonathan as Acting President stipulated that he would retain that 
capacity until Yar'Adua submitted a written declaration to the 
Senate President and House Speaker that he was fit for duty.  An 
embarrassed six-person Cabinet team returned from Saudi Arabia 
mid-morning February 24.  Although today's weekly Wednesday Cabinet 
(Federal Executive Council -- FEC) meeting was cancelled, Jonathan 
summoned ministers for a 1400 meeting, of which we are seeking 
details.  The Cabinet is apparently still divided along regional 
lines.  See paragraph 2 for key questions or triggers that Mission 
will be watching over the next few days to identify the center of 
gravity of power and whether it pulls toward Yar'Adua, Jonathan, 
the military, or a Northern group.  This is an inter-agency 
telegram.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
 
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FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS/TRIGGERS AND ANSWERS 
 
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¶2. (S/NF) To sort through the complex and evolving situation, 
Mission Nigeria includes the following questions, and possible 
answers, regarding the current situation: 
 
 
 
- Q. How do we expect Acting President Jonathan to react to 
Yar'Adua's return? 
 
 
 
- A. Although Jonathan has exhibited some authority in the past 
couple of weeks, we view Jonathan as conservative, cautious, and 
probably unwilling to make a principled stand against Yar'Adua's 
cronies.  The postponement of the February 24 FEC meeting, for 
example, may have benefited Yar'Adua's supporters who dread a 
decision on the President's health, but it also gave Jonathan an 
excuse to avoid the awkward choice of sitting in the Chairperson's 
seat or returning to his former place as Vice President.  Mission 
expects Jonathan to assume a lower profile in the next few days, 
angling behind-the-scenes for strong statements from elder 
statesmen, senior officials, and foreign partners to shore up his 
position but not doing anything brash.  If challenged to hand back 
power to Yar'Adua, Mission suspects that he may request to see the 
President first and verify whether the National Assembly and the 
Cabinet concur with any decision to restore Yar'Adua. 
 
 
 
- Q. What does the "Katsina clique" seek to gain from bringing back 
President Yar'Adua? 
 
 
 
- A. The small group surrounding Yar'Adua appears focused on 
maintaining their grip on power for as long as possible, and 
probably view Yar'Adua's return to Nigeria as the only means to 
stave off an immediate declaration of permanent incapacitation from 
 
ABUJA 00000205  002 OF 003 
 
 
the Cabinet.  The clique probably has limited expectations that 
they can withstand pressure to relinquish power forever, but they 
clearly believe that they can sustain their charade for a few more 
days or weeks.  Hoping beyond hope, the group seems to believe that 
they can issue edicts from the Villa, continue to line their 
pockets from the government coffers, and remove ministers and 
officials they deem disloyal, while maintaining a possibly 
unwilling Yar'Adua "under lock and key." 
 
 
 
- Q. What is Yar'Adua's current capacity to govern? 
 
 
 
- A. Previous reporting suggests that President Yar'Adua is both 
physically and cognitively incapable of running Nigeria.  He may 
have a limited ability to gesture or briefly communicate with 
family and medical staff, but this is not sufficient to resume 
responsibilities as head of state. 
 
 
 
- Q. Where is the military? 
 
 
 
- A. Thus far, the military remains on the sidelines, with senior 
leaders publicly and privately counseling more junior officers and 
troops to avoid any involvement in political affairs, except if 
absolutely necessary to restore order.  Mission has detected no 
unusual movements but cannot completely rule out the possibility of 
a coup, especially if the political vacuum continues for another 
week or more. 
 
 
 
- Q. What role will the Federal Executive Council and/or the 
National Assembly assume in the coming days? 
 
 
 
- A. Probably even more so than either Acting President Jonathan or 
Yar'Adua's supporters, the Cabinet and National Assembly are likely 
to emerge as the principal actors in resolving the crisis.  Their 
actions will either bolster Jonathan and force the "Katsina clique" 
to show their cards, or they will give the Yar'Adua camp the green 
light to continue the farce and resume control.  Judging from their 
past record, we would expect the National Assembly, particularly 
the Senate, to give little weight to assertions that Yar'Adua 
remains ready to reclaim executive power without first-hand 
evidence.  Moreover, both the Constitution and the National 
Assembly's February 9 resolution require the Presidential Villa to 
transmit a letter to the leaders of the national legislature saying 
Yar'Adua is fit to rule again before they withdraw Jonathan's 
Acting President privileges. 
 
 
 
- The Cabinet, with its divisions and cast of lackluster ministers, 
probably remains more open to persuasion than the legislature.  FEC 
members are keenly aware that their jobs are "on the line" -- 
depending upon which camp they side with and which camp emerges 
victorious.  Mission, nonetheless, judges FEC members as unlikely 
to bless Yar'Adua's resumption of power sight unseen either. 
 
 
 
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COMMENT 
 
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ABUJA 00000205  003 OF 003 
 
 
¶3. (S) The timing of Yar'Adua's return took most of Nigeria's 
political elite by surprise, despite the existence for some time of 
rumors and government statements that he would soon return.  Acting 
President Jonathan adjusted his schedule, including a planned 
February 24 nighttime meeting with the Ambassador, after learning 
of Yar'Adua's impending return.  The visit by the ministerial 
delegation may have forced the hand of the President's "Katsina 
clique," who apparently wanted to avoid the embarrassment of having 
to turn aside a visit by an official delegation established by, and 
comprised of, his own ministers. 
 
 
 
¶4. (S) The motive for Yar'Adua's return remains unclear.  Members 
of his inner circle may have wanted Yar'Adua to return to Nigeria 
to pass his final days, or they may have decided that their hold on 
to power would be more likely if they attempted to rule the country 
through proxies from the President's residence in Abuja.  In any 
case, his return throws greater uncertainty on the current 
political situation, with power divided between a seriously-ill 
President and a recently-designated Acting President.  Until now, 
the military has stayed on the sidelines.  We will continue to 
monitor the situation for any unusual movements.  The next week, 
particularly the next 24 to 48 hours, will remain critical for the 
future of Nigeria's democracy and civilian rule.  Yar'Adua's return 
introduces some doubt over who is in charge of the government's 
affairs.  Some will demand a written declaration, as stipulated by 
the National Assembly's resolutions, plus some evidence of life and 
lucidity.  Others may insist that Yar'Adua's mere return makes him 
President again without the need for any additional formality.  We 
are in for several confusing days ahead and we will be looking for 
evidence of all of the above as Nigerians watch in disbelief the 
bizarre behavior of their putative leaders.  END COMMENT. 
SANDERS