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FM AMEMBASSY ABUJA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0266
INFO ECOWAS COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE IMMEDIATE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
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RUEHSA/AMEMBASSY PRETORIA IMMEDIATE 0077

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 000161 
 
SIPDIS 
STATE FOR AF/FO, AF/W, AF/RSA, AF/PDPA, DRL, INR/AA 
AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE PASS TO AMEMBASSY MALABO 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/01/26 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MARR OVIP PTER SOCI KCRM NI
SUBJECT: ELECTORAL REFORM COMMITTEE CHAIRPERSON UWAIS HOPEFUL ON 
 
REFORM 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: James P. McAnulty, Political Counselor, U.S. Embassy 
Abuja, Political Section; REASON: 1.4(B), (D) 
 
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SUMMARY 
 
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¶1. (C) Assistant Secretary for African Affairs Johnnie Carson met 
with Electoral Reform Committee (ERC) Chairperson and retired Chief 
Justice Muhammadu Lawal Uwais February 10 to discuss electoral 
reform, prospects for return to military rule, need for expanded 
corruption investigations and prosecutions, and predictions for 
democratic elections in Nigeria.  Chief Justice Uwais said he was 
energized by what he described as recent credible elections in both 
Edo and Anambra States.  He expressed optimism that sufficient time 
remained to pull together an improved structure for the next 
national election.  He acknowledged strong bilateral consensus on 
what needed to be done to further democracy in Nigeria.  The 
Ambassador, DCM, Special Assistant Cook, and PolOff (notetaker) 
accompanied the Assistant Secretary to this meeting.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
 
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DESIGNATION OF ACTING PRESIDENT 
 
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¶2. (C) Assistant Secretary Carson emphasized the high regard with 
which the U.S. held Nigeria, noting the country's importance beyond 
its own borders, particularly in Africa.  He queried the Chief 
Justice on his views regarding the February 9 National Assembly 
resolutions that officially designated Vice President Goodluck 
Jonathan as Acting President, due to the prolonged absence of 
President Yar'Adua while on medical vacation.  Uwais seemed to 
agree with Carson's characterization of consensus among three key 
government institutions (the Senate, House of Representatives, and 
State Governors' Forum) as positive in eliminating uncertainty and 
delivering a strong voice for continuation of democratic 
governance.  Chief Justice Uwais cautioned, however, that 
"Nigerians are litigious; so there is likely to be a court battle" 
over the resolutions. 
 
 
 
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MILITARY INTERVENTION NIXED 
 
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¶3. (C) Chief Justice Uwais noted that the military had recently 
lost some confidence in Nigeria's democratic institutions.  He 
asserted that, with the Vice President's new authority, "now the 
military will not stage a coup; the atmosphere is not favorable to 
them."  He noted that "the African Union and ECOWAS (Economic 
Community of West African States) are fed up with military rule." 
Uwais approved of the decision by national legislators to confirm 
the will of the people, who are in favor of the Vice President 
taking over from the ailing, and absent, President. 
 
 
 
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CORRUPTION A RECURRENT THREAT 
 
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¶4. (C) Assistant Secretary Carson brought up concerns regarding the 
adequacy of current efforts against corruption, which has eroded 
public trust.  He recalled how a few years ago, then Economic and 
 
ABUJA 00000161  002 OF 003 
 
 
Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) Chairperson Nuhu Ribadu had 
taken energetic steps against corruption, but now that effort 
appeared to have stalled.  Chief Justice Uwais agreed that "more 
must be done" to fight corruption in both government and business. 
Ambassador Carson inquired about the case against former Delta 
State Governor James Ibori, to which Uwais opined that "very 
influential people who financed political campaigns are sacred 
cows" in Nigeria and therefore do not get punished.  Uwais 
advocated building stronger cases against corrupt officials and 
entrepreneurs.  He cited monopolies in cement, rice, and fuel 
imports, which behave "like the mafia."  Uwais concluded that apart 
from the current Central Bank Governor's efforts to clean up 
domestic banks, the government is doing nothing else about 
corruption. 
 
 
 
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ELECTORAL REFORM 
 
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¶5. (C) Ambassador Sanders inquired about recommendations from the 
ERC that Uwais headed, while Assistant Secretary Carson noted 
upbeat statements he heard from President Yar'Adua last August 
regarding the President's pride in Uwais' efforts.  Carson noted 
that Yar'Adua had acknowledged the 2007 election that brought him 
to power as a "flawed process" and had expressed hope to conduct 
improved elections in 2011.  Assistant Secretary Carson informed 
Uwais about the recent U.S.-UK funded election assessment team, 
highlighting measures that the team said could be addressed without 
legislative action.  Uwais said the team had erred in commenting on 
legal criteria that commissioners needed to fulfill.  Election law 
stipulated for example that Commissioners must belong to political 
parties, which, in his view, negated a key ERC recommendation on 
designation of neutral Commissioners.  DCM noted that changing the 
law would be unlikely before June, when the five-year term expired 
for the current Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) 
Chairperson.  Uwais asserted that any changes in the law would 
require two years to implement, adding that only a year and 
one-half remained before the 2011 national elections. 
 
 
 
¶6. (C) Chief Justice Uwais reiterated his recommendation that a 
period of six months elapse between the date of elections and the 
swearing-in of officials to allow sufficient time for the courts to 
resolve all legal challenges.  He recommended, for example, that, 
if the next President were to assume office in May 2011, then the 
election would need to occur by November 2010.  He lamented, 
however, that the much-needed election reforms would be difficult 
to achieve in the time remaining, even if the National Assembly 
approved legislative changes during the first quarter of this year. 
 
 
 
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REQUEST FOR U.S. HELP 
 
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¶7. (C) Chief Justice Uwais asked for U.S. support in improving the 
voter registry and to computerize it.  He recommended posting the 
registry at polling places to allow voters to check their names and 
seek any necessary corrections before the next election. 
 
 
 
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PREDICTIONS 
 
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ABUJA 00000161  003 OF 003 
 
 
¶8. (C) Uwais predicted that Vice President Goodluck Jonathan would 
likely become the presidential candidate of the ruling People's 
Democratic Party (PDP) for the 2011 national elections.  The North, 
he said, would find this situation problematic, since Jonathan, a 
Christian, could potentially hold the Presidency for two four-year 
terms in addition to completing the remainder of the first term of 
Yar'Adua, a Muslim.  Such a result would run counter to the PDP 
Constitution that calls for Northern and Southern politicians to 
rotate control of the Presidency every two terms or eight years. 
 
 
 
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CHRISTMAS DAY TERRORISM 
 
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¶9. (C) Ambassador Carson recalled the attempted bombing by a 
Nigerian citizen of a US. airliner last December 25, describing the 
incident as a shock to Nigerians, who witnessed their first direct 
involvement in an international terrorist attack.  Chief Justice 
Uwais described the suspect's behavior as out of character for 
Nigerians and Muslims in general, observing that "suicide is not a 
common thought in Nigeria as we value life."  He continued that "We 
might kill, we might be fanatics, but we do not commit suicide." 
As a Muslim himself, Uwais said Islam does not approve of suicide. 
He stated his view that suicide attacks would not increase here, 
noting that he believed that terrorists had recruited the 
individual outside the country. 
 
 
 
¶10. (C) Assistant Secretary Carson asserted that 99.9 percent of 
Nigerians, just like their U.S. counterparts, would never become 
suicide bombers.  Nonetheless, it took only one such person to 
inflict damage.  He encouraged Nigerian officials to raise public 
awareness and speak out officially against violent extremism, which 
has grown steadily in the Sahel, Somalia, and the northeast coast 
of Kenya, and could spread even further on the continent. 
Ambassador Carson emphasized to Uwais that no country, even 
Nigeria, is immune to terrorism or influence on their citizens by 
outside extremists. 
 
 
 
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COMMENT 
 
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¶11. (C) Former Chief Justice and ERC Chairperson Uwais remains a 
highly respected figure in Nigerian political and social circles. 
His stature lent considerable weight to the ERC, convened by 
President Yar'Adua in the wake of the flawed 2007 elections.  Few 
figures know the country's electoral laws and its political system 
as well as he does.  Many of his Committee's recommendations, 
including more objective selection procedures for the INEC 
Chairperson, are designed to promote better implementation of 
Nigeria's existing electoral laws.  END COMMENT. 
 
 
 
¶12. (U) Assistant Secretary Carson departed from Abuja before 
having the opportunity to clear on this telegram. 
SANDERS