VZCZCXRO1614
PP RUEHIK
DE RUEHVB #0066 0291449
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 291449Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9866
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC PRIORITY
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY

UNCLAS ZAGREB 000066 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
PASS TO EUR/SCE, TREASURY FOR INT'L AFFAIRS LARRY NORTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EFIN PREL PGOV HR
SUBJECT: CROATIA ANNOUNCES BAILOUT FUND PLAN FOR STRUGGLING 
ENTERPRISES 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Prime Minister Kosor announced a 
much-anticipated crisis financing initiative for struggling 
enterprises on January 28.  This "bailout" plan is the first 
major initiative of an economic strategy to fight the 
recession, and has already received the support of the 
opposition SDP.  Executive Director of the Croatian Bank for 
Reconstruction and Development (HBOR) Branimir Berkovic 
outlined for us the GoC's plan for its $4.5 billion bailout 
fund for companies impacted by the economic crisis in a 
January 27 meeting.  He explained that the fund will be 
financed through a combination of $2 billion from the 
Croatian National Bank (HNB) and either a GoC-backed bond or 
capital fund.  The bailout fund will be managed by private 
commercial banks in Croatia.  Berkovic believes the central 
role of commercial banks in managing the funds will minimize 
the risk that they could be allocated on political criteria, 
or simply as additional subsidies to failing enterprises. END 
SUMMARY 
 
¶2. (SBU)  On February 11 the GoC will publicly announce the 
model and procedures for a $4.5 billion (22 billion Croatian 
kuna, HNK) economic bailout fund for small-to-medium 
enterprises (SMEs) weakened by the recent economic crisis, 
according to Branimir Berkovic, Senior Executive Director of 
the Croatian Bank for Reconstruction and Development (HBOR). 
He explained that liquidity problems are becoming acute in 
many sectors of the economy, and commercial banks have been 
reluctant to issue new credit, especially to SMEs.  He said 
HBOR attempted to provide emergency short term loans to SMEs 
last November, but these measures were not enough to have a 
significant impact on the situation.  (Note:  Anecdotally, we 
heard from commercial bank analysts that these loans were 
underutilized because of slow bureaucracy in the application 
process.) 
 
¶3. (SBU) The current plan is for the Croatian National Bank 
(HNB) to release 3% of banks' reserves for the bailout fund, 
or roughly $400 million (2 billion HNK), according to HNB 
Governor Zeljko Rohatinski.  The rest of the remaining 2.5 
billion kuna will be raised through either private investment 
funds or a bond issue with GoC guarantee.  The current plan 
will be to issue a public tender for private banks to bid on 
fund money to be used for commercial loans.  Berkovic told us 
that the HBOR is still working on the model for the loans, 
but that he hopes the loans will be available for SMEs at a 
tiered rate of 2-4-6% depending on a SMEs assets and 
liabilities. (NOTE: He added that SMEs of 'special state 
interest' or those involved with export businesses 
responsible for bringing foreign currency into Croatia will 
be eligible for the 2 percent rate.)  The current commercial 
loan rate is around 10 percent in Croatia, and Berkovic 
mentioned that he was having some difficulty in persuading 
the private banks to participate in an effort they see as 
having little profit potential. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Addressing SME eligibility, Berkovic told us that 
SMEs will have to qualify with commercial banks for these 
funds, which will maintain a higher standard for lending than 
if the loan program was implemented through a state-owned 
bank.  He said foreign owned SMEs registered in Croatia will 
likely be eligible for the funds as well as some state-owned 
enterprises (SOEs).  But Berkovic noted that the loans will 
be targeted at production enterprises rather than retailers. 
Berkovic predicted that the funds will be available in the 
market for lending approximately three weeks after the GoC's 
expected announcement on February 11.  This delay will permit 
the GoC to prepare required legislation needed for the fund, 
to ensure EU compliance, and to draft an agreement between 
HBOR and the commercial banks that will implement the loans. 
 
¶5. (SBU) COMMENT:  It appears that this fund is a sincere 
attempt to help restart the economy and not merely a scheme 
to continue channeling state funds to failing state 
enterprises.  It is also encouraging that the plan has 
received the support, if lukewarm, from the opposition.  The 
next big economic test for the government comes in 
mid-February, with the latest attempt to privatize Croatia's 
shipyards.  If that effort is successful, and if these 
bailout funds work as planned to stimulate business activity, 
then the government will have created some real economic 
policy momentum and could even silence a few of the critics 
who have accused the Kosor government of doing nothing 
substantive to help bolster Croatia's faltering economy.  END 
COMMENT. 
WALKER