VZCZCXRO4958
RR RUEHIK
DE RUEHYE #0033/01 0221056
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 221056Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY YEREVAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9951
INFO RUEAWJA/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHDC
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORPORATION WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000033 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PHUM PGOV PREL KDEM KJUS AM
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION LEADER HANDED 7 YEAR SENTENCE 
 
REFS:  09 YEREVAN 831 
09 YEREVAN 807 
09 YEREVAN 463 
09 YEREVAN 451 
09 YEREVAN 441 
09 YEREVAN 440 
 
YEREVAN 00000033  001.3 OF 002 
 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1. (SBU) On January 19, a Yerevan court controversially convicted 
and sentenced to seven years' jail time Nikol Pashinian, one of the 
most prominent opposition leaders who challenged the results of the 
disputed 2008 presidential election.  Pashinian, who went into 
hiding in March 2008 after the authorities launched a widespread 
crackdown on the opposition, turned himself in last July in the 
hopes that he would qualify for a general amnesty declared in June. 
Instead, Pashinian, who was found guilty of "organization of mass 
disorders," was handed a seven-year sentence that renders him 
ineligible for the amnesty -- at least for now.  Opposition 
officials denounced the verdict and length of the sentence, which 
exceeded the six years requested by the prosecution, as proof of 
President Sargsian's mission to destroy the political opposition. 
If the harsh punishment meted out to Pashinian is not changed, this 
development will do nothing to foster the national political 
reconciliation Armenia still needs in order to put the 2008 events 
behind it.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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PASHINIAN FOUND GUILTY 
---------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) On January 19, after a three-month trial (ref A), a Yerevan 
court found Nikol Pashinian, editor-in-chief of a leading opposition 
daily and one of the most prominent opposition leaders to challenge 
the 2008 presidential election results, guilty of "organization of 
mass disorders" (accompanied with violence).  The crime that 
Pashinian allegedly committed took place during post-election 
protests on March 1-2, 2008, which culminated in pitched battles 
with riot police that left ten dead.  (The judge handed Pashinian a 
seven-year sentence for this alleged crime and acquitted Pashinian 
of a second charge, alleged violence against state authorities 
(kicking a police officer in the leg during an election campaign 
event). 
 
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HIGHER SENTENCE MEANS NO AMNESTY (YET) 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) In December 2009, prosecutors requested sentences of six 
and two years respectively for the alleged crimes ("organization of 
mass disorder" and "violence against state authorities").  While 
dismissing the second charge entirely, the judge -- the same judge 
who has presided over other cases involving prominent opposition 
figures -- handed down a longer-than-requested sentence of seven 
years for the "mass disorder" charge. ." 
 
¶4. (SBU) Under the general amnesty declared by parliament in June 
2009 that resulted in the release of all but 15 or so of the scores 
of oppositionists jailed after the post-election unrest, persons 
convicted of crimes with sentences exceeding five years are 
ineligible for the amnesty.  Although Pashinian may have been hoping 
that his voluntary surrender last July would qualify him for the 
amnesty, he now appears out of luck. 
 
¶5. (SBU) In its verdict, the court notably did not refer to the June 
2009 amnesty (refs B-E). According to that law, which is inartfully 
drafted, complete amnesty applies to persons who received sentences 
not exceeding five years of imprisonment.  Under that same law, 
however, a partial reduction in sentence applies to certain persons 
who would not otherwise qualify for complete amnesty.  According to 
Post's Resident Legal Advisor, it appears that Pashinian does 
qualify to have his sentence reduced under the amnesty by one-half, 
which would give him a sentence of three and one-half years (he has 
served less than one year at present).  It remains to be seen 
whether the court will apply that amnesty provision in its final 
written verdict. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Independent of the possibility of amnesty or a partial 
reduction in sentence, Pashinian's defense can and will almost 
certainly seek an acquittal verdict on appeal.  As sentences are 
often reduced on appeal in Armenia, it is possible that the 
appellate court could do so, although it has not in other cases of 
high-profile opposition figures. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
SARGSIAN SEEKS OPPOSITION'S DEMISE/CAPITULATION 
 
YEREVAN 00000033  002.3 OF 002 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Leaders of the opposition Armenian National Congress (ANC) 
fumed to Poloffs on January 20 that Pashinian's ruling was unlawful, 
ordered by the authorities, and part of President Sargsian's ongoing 
campaign "to destroy the opposition."  Levon Zurabian, the ANC's 
Coordinator, and Davit Shahnazarian, an ANC senior advisor, warned 
that the ruling will make it harder for them to contain the ANC's 
more radical elements who are pushing for a resumption of protest 
rallies that ANC leader ex-President Levon Ter-Petrossian suspended 
in September 2009.  Stepan Safarian and Armen Martirossian, MPs of 
the opposition Heritage Party, told Poloffs on January 20 that 
Pashinian's verdict reflects "the authorities' desire that the 
opposition capitulate totally."  They said the seven-year verdict 
made no sense juridically, but politically signals the authorities' 
fear of Pashinian's ability to mobilize popular support for the 
opposition cause. 
 
----------------------------- 
"FAIR TRIAL" ON THE SURFACE ... 
----------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) According to Post's Resident Legal Advisor, who observed 
Pashinian's court hearings, Pashinian received a fair trial as far 
as the procedures are concerned.  The public and press were allowed 
inside the courtroom; the defendant and his attorneys were allowed 
to cross-examine witnesses and call their own witnesses; and the 
defense was never denied the substantive right to speak on any trial 
issue. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Moreover, there was some testimony given to support the 
state's charges.  Some civilian witnesses testified that they heard 
Pashinian make inflammatory statements on March 1, urging protesters 
to pick up objects from the ground (rocks, metal) in order to defend 
themselves.  According to the testimony, Pashinian also encouraged 
protesters to "fight to the end," proclaimed that it was "a 
revolution," and made similarly provocative statements.  This 
testimony appears more or less in keeping with the recollection of 
Emboffs who, despite not observing Pashinian on March 1, saw him in 
action during the ten preceding days of around-the-clock protests. 
 
 
------------------------------------------ 
... BUT IS THE SENTENCE FAIR, PROPORTIONATE? 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶10. (SBU) Although the conduct of the trial appeared aboveboard, 
Post's view is that the conviction and initial sentence are clearly 
disproportionate to the alleged crime (the delivery of a fiery 
speech in the midst of an unauthorized political protest).  No 
direct correlation linking Pashinian's provocative statements and 
organizing mass disorders were proven.  That other opposition 
defendants who were found guilty under the same charge received a 
lighter sentence and qualified for complete amnesty also calls into 
question Pashinian's sentence. 
 
¶11. (U) In condemning the lengthy sentence, the opposition "Hayk" 
biweekly noted that the judge who issued the sentence was also the 
same judge who gave a two-year suspended jail sentence to a 
bodyguard of former President Robert Kocharian after the former beat 
to death a man in a Yerevan caf in 2002.  (Note:  The street 
version is that the victim, who was inebriated at the time, offended 
Kocharian when he addressed the President as "Bob."  End Note.) 
 
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COMMENT 
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¶12. (SBU) We never had any illusions that the verbally provocative 
Pashinian would be found not guilty, given his exceptionally 
high-profile role in post-election protests and the punishment meted 
out to fellow opposition leaders who challenged the 2008 election 
results with him.  The severe sentencing, however, is at stark 
variance with President Sargsian's numerous public statements 
calling on Armenian society to unify "as tight as a fist."  If 
Pashinian's punitive sentence sticks, we see it only rubbing more 
salt in the opposition's wounds, and perpetuating the political 
tension and malaise that have beset Armenian society since the 2008 
events.  Opposition warnings that the verdict could lead to further 
street protests are -- in our view -- overblown.  As we have 
reported, the opposition movement has appeared to be in a steady 
decline for months, and probably no longer has the ability to bring 
significant numbers of Armenians into the streets. 
 
YOVANOVITCH