VZCZCXRO6464
RR RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSL RUEHSR
DE RUEHYE #0019/01 0130711
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 130711Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY YEREVAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9934
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORPORATION WASHINGTON DC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 YEREVAN 000019 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/12/2020 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM KJUS AM
SUBJECT: ARMENIA MISSES ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY TO IMPROVE 
ELECTIONS 
 
YEREVAN 00000019  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
Classified By: CDA Joseph Pennington, for reasons 1.4 (b,d). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1. (C) In the January 10 by-election, Embassy observers noted 
widespread intimidation, low-scale violence, and cases where 
individuals outside the electoral commissions directed the 
vote process. Although we did not directly observe ballot 
stuffing, Embassy personnel were present at a polling station 
where the precinct chair appeared to be openly falsifying the 
vote. There were numerous instances of journalists, local 
observers, and proxies being evicted from polling places or 
being obstructed from monitoring the vote. The CEC 
chairperson acknowledged to the Embassy the morning after the 
vote that things had gone "badly." All in all, the rather 
low-stakes election represented another missed opportunity 
for Armenia to make progress in its flawed electoral 
processes, with the average Armenian voter being the main 
casualty ... yet again. END SUMMARY. 
 
----------------------- 
PRE-ELECTION BACKGROUND 
----------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) The by-election filled the single-district 
parliamentary seat (the Kentron ward in Yerevan) vacated by 
Khachatur Sukiasian, a tycoon who fell out of favor with the 
authorities when he publicly sided with ex-President Levon 
Ter-Petrossian in the February 2008 presidential election. 
Sukiasian's extensive business holdings were subsequently 
targeted by the tax authorities, and some were even 
expropriated.  He went into hiding on March 4, 2008, after 
the National Assembly (parliament) stripped his parliamentary 
immunity and that of three other MPs who sided with 
Ter-Petrossian during the election and the fatal postelection 
unrest. After 18 months on the run, Sukiasian surrendered to 
authorities on September 1, 2009, and announced a week later 
that he would give up his seat to protest the illegal actions 
of the authorities. 
 
¶3. (SBU) To contest the seat, the opposition Armenian 
National Congress led by Ter-Petrossian advanced the 
candidacy of Nikol Pashinian, the outspoken editor-in-chief 
of an opposition daily who also went into hiding after the 
2008 election unrest, only to resurface in July 2009. 
Pashinian is awaiting a January 19 verdict on charges of 
attempting to seize power extraconstitutionally, causing mass 
disorders, and assaulting police officers. It is widely 
expected that he will be convicted of at least some of these 
charges, as were many of his opposition colleagues. 
 
------------------------ 
INITIAL ELECTION RESULTS 
------------------------ 
 
¶4. (SBU) In an election marked by a paltry 24 percent turnout 
(13,566 out of 55,851 registered voters), Ara Simonian, the 
obscure pro-government candidate from the National Unity 
party, netted approximately 58 percent of the vote, beating 
out the much better-known Pashinian, who won 39 percent. 
Davit Hakobian, the madcap leader of the Marxist party, 
received only 2.6 percent. The low voter turnout likely 
reflected the unusual date of the election -- the final day 
of Armenia's ten-day New Year's holiday -- the practically 
invisible campaigns of the three candidates, and the growing 
cynicism and apathy of Yerevan's long-suffering voters. 
 
---------------------- 
PROBLEMS WITH ELECTION 
---------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Based on the Embassy's observation of the vote and 
vote count by its ten two-person teams, intimidation and 
threats by pro-government forces, low-scale violence, and the 
running of some polling stations by pro-government forces 
(not the polling station commissions) appeared to be the 
worst problems. We heard, but did not observe directly, 
several reports of ballot stuffing throughout the vote and 
vote count. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Tension and intimidation tactics were on full 
display at many of Kentron's 34 precincts. Our observers 
noted intimidation of journalists, opposition proxies, local 
observers, and two of our own teams by proxies loyal to 
pro-government candidate Ara Simonian, local "observers" 
clearly working for Simonian inside the polling stations and, 
in some cases, polling station commission members themselves. 
Most of this intimidation was verbal (with one proxy 
threatening to rape a female journalist covering the vote), 
 
YEREVAN 00000019  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
but some was also physical. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Early in the day, a prominent -- and perhaps overly 
aggressive -- photojournalist was physically accosted and 
thrown out of a polling station on the specious grounds that 
he did not possess appropriate accreditation. Small-scale 
fisticuffs broke out a couple of times in front of our 
observers, again normally instigated by pro-government forces 
trying to impede monitoring of the vote by the media, 
observers, and proxies loyal to Pashinian. At one polling 
station, Petros Makeyan, a leader of an opposition party and 
former political detainee from the disputed 2008 presidential 
election, had his nose broken when 30 pro-government thugs 
reportedly beat him, his son, and an associate outside a 
polling station. (Police would later characterize Makeyan as 
the instigator.) 
 
¶8. (SBU) Most disturbing was the running of some polling 
precincts by pro-government vote-fixers -either unaccredited 
individuals or thick-necked men presenting themselves as 
local "observers" -- instead of the precinct electoral 
commission. One of them attempted to intimidate journalists, 
observers, opposition proxies, and two of our 
teams. 
 
¶9. (SBU) At one of the most problematic precincts, Embassy 
observers who responded to a tip-off of imminent vote-rigging 
observed the closure of a polling place for one hour by a 
polling place chairman who alleged that the two voters' 
lists, the ballot envelope stamp, and ballots had been 
stolen. He subsequently kicked out everybody, except for two 
journalists who refused to leave, and locked the doors. Afer 
the Embassy phoned the Central Electoral Commission to report 
the situation, the CEC's Secretary (third in command at the 
CEC) arrived to investigate. When the doors were reopened, 
the precinct chairperson reported that no theft had occurred, 
and that he had merely placed the ballots in a safe for 
safe-keeping out of fear of a theft. At this time, observers 
saw the chairperson sneak one of the missing voters' lists 
out of his coat and into the safe where he maintained it had 
been all along. 
 
----------------------------------------- 
CEC CHAIPERSON'S PLAINTIVE TELEPHONE CALL 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶10. (C) Early on January 11, Garegin Azarian, the Chairperson 
of the Central Electoral Commission, telephoned the Embassy 
to obtain our initial reaction to the vote before he reported 
to President Sargsian. He acknowledged up front that the 
election had gone "badly," which we agreed was the case. 
Azarian complained, "I know all these problems, but I can't 
control what happens" on Election Day. He blamed the "human 
factor" for the problems: "I see the problems, but I cannot 
solve them." He further lamented that "polling place 
chairpersons do not listen to me." When we complained about 
the media, local observers and opposition proxies being 
evicted from polling places, or having their activities 
circumscribed by polling place administration or unidentified 
individuals, he responded that "the media are very 
provocative." Azarian said he planned to request the 
invalidation of the vote at two of the most egregious polling 
stations. 
 
---------------------- 
POST-ELECTION FALL-OUT 
---------------------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) The Armenian National Congress, of which Pashinian 
is a senior member, immediately rejected the election results 
as fraudulent and announced it would challenge them in court. 
At the same time, however, the ANC touted Pashinian's 
respectable showing as testament to the ANC's "strength and 
growing authority." ANC officials told the British Deputy 
Head of Mission after the vote that Pashinian's 38 percent 
finish pleasantly exceeded their pre-election projection of 
30 percent. After the election, Pashinian issued a statement 
from his prison cell acknowledging the "disappointment" of 
ANC activists and other supporters with the "fraudulent" 
vote; he urged them, however, not to "despair" and to 
continue to fight for leadership change. 
 
¶12. (SBU) The Charge paid a call January 12 on Vigen 
Sargsian, the President's Deputy Chief of Staff, where he 
shared the Embassy's impressions of the election and its 
intention to issue a statement expressing its concerns over 
its conduct. The Charge urged the Presidency to support the 
invalidation of the most problematic precincts, ensure 
credible recounts, and consider re-running some of the 
precinct votes. Sargsian (no relation to the President) took 
the Charge's observations under advisement, but urged the 
 
YEREVAN 00000019  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
Embassy to exercise caution with its statement. 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
THE MERITS OF OBSERVING ELECTIONS/USG GRANTEES 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶13. (SBU) An unscientific analysis of the vote counts at the 
34 polling places indicated that some of the closest races 
were those where we circulated our ten observers most 
frequently during the day, and some of the least close races 
-- in favor of Simonian, often at a 2-to-1 margin -- occurred 
at places where observers visited less frequently. Throughout 
the day, citizens observing the vote thanked Embassy 
observers for monitoring the election, asserting that our 
presence was helping to deter vote fraud. At one vote count, 
a female proxy for the opposition effusively thanked the 
observer and her FSN for coming to her precinct to observe 
the vote, and then taunted the pro-government proxy whom she 
alleged hit her on the head during the day to try it again in 
front of the Embassy observers. The Embassy also noted that 
the most thorough reporting and observation of the election 
was carried out by several current USG grantees -- the Hetq 
online news agency, the independent A1Plus online news 
outlet, and two human rights NGOs -- the Helsinki Association 
and the Helsinki Citizens Assembly of Vanadzor. 
 
----------------- 
POST'S ASSESSMENT 
----------------- 
 
¶14. (SBU) Given the lingering effects of the disputed 2008 
presidential election and the authorities' continuing 
repression of the opposition, we would have been surprised 
had Pashinian won any election. What stretches credulity, 
however, is that Pashinian lost so resoundingly to such an 
obscure figure as Simonian, who has essentially no name 
recognition in Armenia's personality-driven political 
establishment and does not even hail from any of the three 
parties of the ruling coalition. Indeed, while Pashinian has 
captured headlines -- and arguably much sympathy -for two 
years, Simonian has been invisible. At the January 8 
pre-election rally that ANC and Ter-Petrossian held for 
Pashinian, ANC contacts and independent observers predicted 
to us they would nonetheless lose the election, mainly 
because of vote fraud planned by the authorities. A former 
NDI employee told us that "Armenian politics are littered 
with numerous examples where politically connected, corrupt 
nobodies beat honest, well-known figures." 
 
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COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶15. (C) Although the election suffered from a regrettably low 
voter turn-out, it nevertheless could have been an 
opportunity for Armenian authorities to show progress in 
their flawed electoral processes. Our pre-election entreaties 
to the authorities to exploit this low-stakes poll to conduct 
a free and fair poll apparently fell on deaf ears. Some 
habits here truly die hard, and unfortunately electoral fraud 
is one, with its main casualty once again the hapless 
Armenian voter. In spite of this disappointment, we will 
continue to engage officials on the importance of electoral 
reform, and hope to use the upcoming lull in the election 
cycle (until the next parliamentary elections in May, 2012) 
to generate genuine and substantive action on this front. 
PENNINGTON