VZCZCXRO6924
PP RUEHRN
DE RUEHRN #0008/01 0251336
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 251336Z JAN 10
FM USMISSION UN ROME
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1261
INFO RUEHC/USAID WASHDC
RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA PRIORITY 0035
RUEHDJ/AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI PRIORITY 0017
RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI PRIORITY 0052
RUEHYN/AMEMBASSY SANAA PRIORITY 0016
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY 0293
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY 0355
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 0459
RHMFIUU/CJTF HOA
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEHRN/USMISSION UN ROME 1338

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 UN ROME 000008 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR IO/HS, PRM/MCE, AF AND EB/IFD/ODA 
USAID FOR DCHA, FFP, OFDA, AND AFRICA BUREAU 
NAIROBI FOR GEORGIANNA PLATT, SUREKA KHANDAGLE, NICK COX AND PETE MOHAN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS:SO 
SUBJECT: WORLD FOOD PROGRAM: UPDATE ON CONTINGENCY PLANS FOR SOMALIA 
 
REF: A) STATE 132604; B) UN ROME 03; AND C) UN ROME 01 
 
¶1.  (U) This message is sensitive but unclassified.  Please 
handle accordingly. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) USUN Rome contacted WFP to obtain an update on WFP's 
current operational plans and status of contingency planning 
efforts.  (Separately, WFP disseminated to the WFP Executive 
Board its latest situation report, which is pasted in its 
entirety in paragraph 7.)  WFP reported that: 
 
A) The current operational plans include WFP continuing to 
distribute food in Mogadishu and the Afgoye corridor for the 
foreseeable future; however, the security situation in these 
areas is constantly changing and there are concerns for the 
safety of trucks transporting food.  As a result, the 
continuation of distribution efforts cannot be guaranteed.  No 
distributions are planned for the remaining areas of South 
Somalia, which are under Al-Shabaab control, until Al-Shabaab 
retracts it conditions on distribution.  Meanwhile, 
distributions in the central regions continue as usual and will 
be facilitated through food imported at Bossasso Port and 
potentially Harardhere/Hobyo.  WFP's logistics network in 
Southern Somalia remains in place, and current 
infrastructure/staffing levels and contractual agreements will 
be retained for the next three months, after which time funding 
levels and projected dates for a potential return to these areas 
will determine the plan. 
 
B) As background, a joint meeting held during the week of 
January 11 between WFP, OCHA, UNHCR and FAO's Nairobi-based 
Somalia Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) 
concluded that up to 120,000 people could be displaced over the 
next three months due to the forced suspension of WFP activities 
in Southern Somalia.  Potential displacement breakdown follows: 
 
- 25,000 to Kenya/Ethiopia from Gedo region 
- 40,000 to Mogadishu, Kenya and north into Puntland if WFP is 
unable to gain access to internally displaced persons (IDPs) in 
Afgoye corridor in the next three months (WFP stresses need to 
contextualize situation, e.g., IDPs may move away from Afgoye if 
WFP is unable to provide food assistance by road or air, thus it 
is likely that some IDPs may move back to Mogadishu but other 
may attempt to move to Galgadud and Mudug provinces from where 
they were originally displaced into Mogadishu); and 
- up to 30,000 in North Hiran could displace into Galgaduud or 
across the border into Ethiopia and 25,000 from other parts of 
Hiran could displace south to the Shabelles. 
 
WFP notes that a number of key factors could limit population 
movement, including: an expected above average harvest which 
would improve food availability and labor wages; typically, no 
WFP distributions during the harvest period (January/February); 
and preventative measures by Kenya and anti-southerner sentiment 
in the North.  The most important factor for increased 
population movement is expected to be conflict based. 
 
[Note:  WFP further clarified that the inflows to Yemen and 
Djibouti (75,000 and 30,000, respectively, as previously 
reported in reftel B) are still valid estimates but continue to 
fluctuate due to dynamic situations locally.  More information 
on population movements to these countries will come out of the 
UNHCR/WFP regional contingency planning meeting expected to take 
place February 3-4 in Nairobi. End Note] 
 
C) Based on the above displacement projections, WFP now plans to: 
 
- Keep a minimum of two months worth of Mogadishu and Afgoye 
corridor stocks in Mogadishu to allow for a buffer if additional 
beneficiaries move to Afgoye or Mogadishu.  WFP/Logistics is 
working on increasing storage capacity in the port; 
 
- Continue limited distributions in Dolo to provide some support 
to populations in the Gedo region, but this will have to be 
limited so as not to inflame a volatile situation; 
 
- Bring supplies in overland from Mombasa via Kenya, contingent 
upon WFP's ability to operate along the transport route once in 
 
UN ROME 00000008  002 OF 004 
 
 
Somalia; 
 
- Improve the supply line to Central regions and Northern Hiran 
through Bossasso to allow WFP to continue reaching beneficiaries 
in the Central regions despite the loss of access via Mogadishu. 
A Special Operation (SO) is being put in place by WFP/Logistics 
to improve capacity of Bossasso Port and roads; 
 
- Increase stocks in Dusramareb/Galkayo:  These stocks can be 
utilized in case of increased population movement into northern 
Hiran and the Central regions as well as for distributions in 
Hiran and Southern Regions if WFP gains access; and 
 
- Increase stocks in Mombasa which can be drawn upon for either 
overland transport to Kenya if WFP regains access or for 
supplying Mogadishu. 
 
Funding from the UN Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF), a 
Spanish contribution and other contributions has allowed WFP to 
immediately increase its stocks in Mogadishu and Mombasa by 
drawing down from prepositioned WFP stocks and undertaking 
regional purchase. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Northern Corridor: WFP reports that the corridor 
through Bossasso to Central regions is already operational and 
has been used and tested.  There are bottlenecks, including 
processing of documentation, storage, and draft limitation of 
Bossasso Port (6.8M).  Lighterage of vessels with more than 
4,000 MT of cargo is required, hence a slow discharge rate of 
approximately 500 MT/day can be achieved.  Bossasso Port lacks 
equipment and requires rehabilitation, thus, WFP plans to expand 
SO # 10578.0 to include dredging of the port basin to 8.5M, and 
removal of shipwrecks and debris, provision of navigational 
aids, generators, lights, and port handling equipment.  WFP 
estimates it would take approximately 12 months to complete the 
aforementioned work and at a budget of approximately $7.5 
million. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Storage: To deal with storage limitation as an 
immediate measure, WFP has already installed 7 wiikhalls in 
Galkayo Extended Delivery Point (EDP), increasing it from 5,000 
MT to 8,500 MT and plans to increase this further to 10,000 MT 
in the coming three weeks, which would give WFP the ability to 
receive more direct deliveries from vessels discharging in 
Bossasso.  In Bossasso, WFP has positioned 20 wiikhalls capable 
of storing 10,000 MT; however, WFP is working with authorities 
on a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) whereby land is provided 
to WFP in suitable location (i.e., close to the port).  A 
WFP/Logistics mission is planned in the coming two weeks to 
Garowe and Bossasso to discuss and hopefully finalize the MOU 
with Puntland authorities for rehabilitation of the port, 
prioritization of humanitarian shipments/cargo, provision of 
land for storage and streamlining the processing of shipping 
documentation. 
 
¶5. (SBU) WFP also plans to install an alternate beach port for 
delivery of humanitarian cargo to central regions to reduce the 
current delivery time of 7 to 10 days from Bossasso to EDPs in 
the central region (Galkayo and Dusaramareb).  A beach port in 
Hobyo or Haaradhere is planned and already being discussed with 
contractors and local communities.  WFP plans to install a fully 
operational EDP with a 10,000 MT storage facility.  Estimated 
cost is $1.5 million and time to complete is approximately three 
months once MOU is signed with community providing suitable land 
and access to WFP.  Once established, WFP believes delivery time 
to Central would be reduced to 4 to 5 days while shipping costs 
ex Mombasa could reduce from Mombasa-Bossasso of $120/MT to 
Mombasa-Hobyo $85/MT. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Other contingency measures:  WFP has secured a port 
warehouse in Mogadishu up to 20,000 MT which should allow WFP to 
safely store up to two months of Mogadishu and Afgoye cargo. 
WFP's construction of its own warehouse in Mogadishu Port will 
be completed by the end of July and will have a capacity of 
15,000 MT.  Currently, cargo is stored in contractors' 
warehouses under bond; however, there is concern that, if 
Al-Shabaab were to push on Mogadishu, these stocks could be 
 
UN ROME 00000008  003 OF 004 
 
 
taken by force.  WFP has also positioned 10 wiikhalls in Mombasa 
with 5,000 MT capacity should the need arise to install a rapid 
EDP closer to the Kenya border.  Meanwhile, deliveries to Dolo 
continue keeping the supply route ex-Mombasa open and prepared. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) On January 22, WFP disseminated its latest situation 
report to WFP Executive Board members as follows: 
 
BEGIN REPORT 
"WFP Somalia Operations Situation 
As of January 18, 2010 
 
Summary Update 
 
-- WFP is preparing a general food distribution to 17,500 
beneficiaries of 223 mt of assorted food in Dolow in the north 
of Gedo Region, southern Somalia. Dolow is under TFG control and 
being supplied from Kenya. 
 
-- Though it is impossible for WFP to transport food through Al 
Shabaab (A/S) controlled areas, WFP continues to operate through 
Mogadishu port to supply Mogadishu and Afgoye, and through 
Bossasso port to supply north-east Somalia and the central 
regions. Deliveries from Berbera port serve north-west Somalia 
as well as parts of Ethiopia. To ensure that this altered 
delivery network operates smoothly, WFP has increased its 
warehousing capacity in Galkayo from 5,000 to 8,000 mt. WFP has 
also initiated discussions with the Puntland authorities to 
streamline the procedures at Bossasso port, and to increase 
storage capacity. 
 
-- WFP is expanding its current special operation 10578.0 to 
include rehabilitation work at Bossasso port to maximise 
throughput. WFP is also exploring the possibility of 
establishing a beach port and storage facility on the coastline 
of the central regions at either Haradhere or Hobyo to reduce 
costs and delivery time. 
 
-- WFP continues with programme activities in Somaliland and 
Puntland through its offices in Hargeisa, Bossasso and Galkayo 
with increased numbers of international and national staff 
members who are temporarily assigned from the South Somalia. 
 
-- WFP is working closely with other UN agencies in preparation 
of a contingency plan for next 3 months in response to WFP's 
temporary suspension of operations in southern Somalia.  A rough 
estimate was made that up to 120,000 people could potentially 
displace over the first quarter of 2010 due to WFP's suspension. 
 The estimate includes the possibility of distribution not 
taking place in the Afgoye corridor. It does not take floods or 
conflict, a leading cause of displacement in Somalia, in to 
consideration. 
 
WFP Security Update 
-- The overall security situation during the reporting period 
has been marked by fighting in Beletwein between Alhu Sunna Wal 
Jama'a (ASWJ) led forces and Hizbul Al-Islamiya. Reports have 
confirmed that ASWJ are now controlling both the eastern and 
western sides of the town after a three-day gunbattle that left 
scores dead and injured among the civilian population. The 
assault on Beletwein by pro-government forces came amid an 
Al-Shabaab military build-up in Galgadud in preparation of an 
attack on Dhusamareb.  With the loss of Beletwein, which is a 
strategic gateway to Ethiopian and northern Somalia, Al-Shabaab 
have not been able to execute its intended plans on Galgadud. 
 
-- In Mogadishu, clashes between the TFG forces backed by AMISOM 
have dominated the week in review. Al-Shabaab forces, which are 
conducting near daily attacks in government controlled 
districts, are often rolled-back with the use of heavy mortar or 
artillery shelling. The threat of suicide bombings remain 
prevalent and worrisome, especially in light of recent 
confirmation by AMISOM that two vehicle painted with AU markings 
have been recently observed being driven by insurgents in 
Mogadishu. This category of threats will continue to dominate 
the security environment in Mogadishu forcing AMISOM and TFG 
installation to adopt higher state of readiness to reduce 
 
UN ROME 00000008  004 OF 004 
 
 
exposure. 
 
-- In Puntland, hand grenade attacks seems to be increasing as 
local authorities are struggling with security operations which 
often yield little results while alienating a IDP population 
mostly coming from A/S controlled regions in south Somalia. As a 
result, Puntland government forces view this particular segment 
of the population with suspicion. 
 
-- In Somaliland, presidential elections remain of great 
concern, followed by threats of suicide attacks. In Puntland, 
assassinations and hand grenade explosions are expected to 
continue especially in Galkayo, Bossasso and Garowe. In 
Mogadishu, day missions for international staff members may be 
possible and subject to New York Security Clearance Approval. 
National staff members continue to operate from the seaport 
following their relocation from UNCC after receipt of threats of 
VBIED attacks. 
 
-- On January 17, Garowe Online reported that one local aid 
worker with SACCID agency was killed in Mogadishu. Two other 
staff members were missing. SACCID is an important cooperating 
partner of WFP for the wet feeding programme and targeted 
supplementary feeding in Mogadishu. The information has not yet 
being confirmed and the motive of the killing is unclear at this 
moment. However, if the incident is proved true, it may have an 
impact on the implementation of WFP's ongoing programmes in 
Mogadishu. 
 
-- UNHAS in-bound flights to Merka, K50, Wajid, Buaale and 
Beletwein remain suspended.  Operations in Galkayo, Bossasso and 
Hargeisa may continue while flights to Mogadishu have to be 
approved on a case-by-case basis." 
END REPORT 
COUSIN