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C O N F I D E N T I A L TEGUCIGALPA 000097 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/22/2020 
TAGS: ECON EFIN EAID PGOV SOCI HO
SUBJECT: HONDURAS' VISION OF THE COUNTRY 2038 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Hugo Llorens for reasons 1.4 b and d. 
 
¶1.  (C)  Summary:  Before his election, President Porfirio 
"Pepe" Lobo circulated a long-term plan called Vision of the 
Country 2038 and National Plan 2022.  It was submitted to and 
passed by the outgoing Congress and signed into law by 
President Lobo during his inauguration.  The document 
includes a draft law creating a super ministry, the Technical 
Secretariat of Planning and International Cooperation, which 
will manage all planning processes.  The Vision establishes 
22 goals of where Honduras should be in the year 2038 whereas 
the National Plan focuses on the strategic guidelines for 
eleven planning areas that will be the heart of the planning 
process.  The implementation of specific policies to achieve 
the goals of the Vision and National Plan are not discussed 
in the document and little insight as to the future policies 
of the Lobo administration can be discerned from the 
document.  The current situation confronting Honduras makes 
it difficult to predict events in the coming weeks let alone 
28 years into the future and the document does not discuss 
how it will afford all these programs.  The international 
community, which was not party to the process of creating 
this document, may have reservations about being asked to 
fund its implementation.  Nevertheless, the document may 
provide strategic parameters prepared by the Hondurans 
themselves that may be helpful to donor agencies that seek to 
reengage in the future.  End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (U)  Before his election, President Lobo circulated a 
long-term plan called Vision of the Country 2038 and National 
Plan 2022.  The Vision is a 28 year picture of where the 
country should be as defined by a wide range of tangible 
indicators.  The 28-year Vision is composed of two 12-year 
National Plans and a four year transition to a new Vision. 
Each 12-year National Plan will be made up of three 4-year 
Government Plans which are timed to coincide with the cycle 
of presidential elections and which will outline how each 
administration will try and achieve the goals of the Vision 
and National Plan.  The document also includes a draft law 
creating a super ministry, the Technical Secretariat of 
Planning and International Cooperation, which will manage all 
the planning processes.  The original formulation of the 
document began during the administration of Jose Manuel 
Zelaya and continued during the de facto regime.  (Note: One 
of the principal authors is thought to be Zelaya's Minister 
of Governance Victor Meza.  End Note.)  The final document is 
thought to have been a cut and paste of several other 
planning documents created over the past few years. 
 
-------------------------------- 
The Vision of the Country - 2038 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (U)  The Vision establishes 22 goals of where Honduras 
should be in the year 2038 covering the concepts of: an 
educated and healthy Honduras without extreme poverty, a 
Honduras that is developing democracy in security and without 
violence, a productive Honduras that generates dignified 
employment while taking advantage of natural resources in a 
sustainable manner and reducing environmental vulnerability, 
and envisioning a modern state that is transparent, 
responsible, efficient and competitive.  The Vision also 
delineates the principles on which the planning process will 
be based. 
 
------------------------ 
The National Plan - 2022 
------------------------ 
 
¶4.  (U)  The National Plan focuses on the strategic 
guidelines for eleven planning areas that will be the heart 
of the planning process.  The eleven planning areas are: 1) 
sustainable development of the population, 2) democracy, 
citizenship and governance, 3) reduction of poverty, 4) 
education and culture, 5) health 6) security, 7) regional 
development, natural resources and the environment, 8) 
infrastructure, 9) macroeconomic stability, 10) 
competitiveness, national image and development, and 11) 
mitigation of climate change.  An annex to the document 
includes 58 tangible indicators mostly developed by various 
international organizations (such as the Rate of Demographic 
Dependence) to track progress in achieving goals.  These 
indicators show the current base rate and the hoped for 
progress for each measurement during the next three plans of 
government (2013, 2017, and 2022) and at the end of the 
 
vision period (2038). 
 
¶5.  (U)  Each planning area of the National Plan has its own 
chapter in the document outlining the background behind the 
current situation, the biggest challenges faced by planners 
and the goals to be achieved during the period of the plan. 
These chapters appear to have been drafted by different 
authors as they vary in length, style and content.  The 
chapter on natural resources and the environment goes into 
great detail on the legal basis for environmental agreements 
(international treaties and the Honduran Constitution), 
description of the various river basins in Honduras, etc. for 
12 pages before getting to the biggest challenges while the 
chapter on security has only three paragraphs of background. 
Some chapters contradict others. 
 
¶6.  (U)  Very few specific policies to achieve the goals 
contained in the National Plan are discussed and little 
insight as to the future policies of the Lobo administration 
can be discerned from the document.  The language of the 
document is often vague and oddly structured such that a wide 
range of interpretations could be made.  Apparently, the 
specific policies and implementation tools will be part of 
the Government Plans to be prepared by each administration. 
 
-------------------------------- 
Plan to be Incorporated into Law 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (U)  The vision document includes a draft of a new law 
(Law for the Establishment of a Country Vision and the 
Adoption of a National Plan for Honduras).  The law would 
include the basics of the Vision and Plan including the 2038 
goals to be achieved and charge the Presidency of the 
Republic with responsibility for strategic planning.  The 
Presidency would be supported by the National Plan Council, 
the National Council of Competition and Innovation, the 
Sectoral Cabinets and the Councils of Regional development. 
These councils will be made up of a wide range of government 
ministers, heads of private organizations, union leaders, 
academics and other representatives of Civil Society. 
 
¶8.  (U)  The law also includes a total reorganization of the 
government planning process and the creation of a new 
Planning Ministry (Technical Secretariat for Planning and 
International Cooperation) which will replace the Technical 
Secretariat for International Cooperation (SETCO) and other 
diverse planning functions in government.  There will also be 
a Technical Sub-secretariat of Development Planning that will 
take over planning responsibilities from UNAT and other 
departments.  Although included in the Economic Cabinet, the 
Finance Ministry appears to play a minor role in the planning 
function. 
 
¶9.  (U)  The Councils of Regional Development will be 
structured among the various river basins of the country and 
not along political lines, crossing the boundaries of some 
departments and municipalities.  These councils are designed 
to bring a wide range of citizens and local groups into the 
planning process but how these development planning regions 
will interact with local and departmental governments is 
unclear. 
 
¶10.  (U)  The Vision document was presented on January 11 to 
the outgoing National Congress, which approved the bill at 
its last session on January 13.  President Lobo signed the 
new legislation at his inauguration on January 27. 
 
-------------- 
Implementation 
-------------- 
 
¶11.  (U)  The implementation of specific policies to achieve 
the goals of the Vision and National Plan are not discussed 
in the document.  Other than the very detailed creation of 
the new Technical Secretariat, the document is very vague and 
sometimes contradictory about implementation.  There are 
rumors that the document is a cut and paste of several other 
documents which could account for these inconsistencies. 
Implementation will apparently be left to the various 
government plans.  The Government Plan of the Lobo 
administration (the first of seven under this 28-year Vision) 
has not yet been presented. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶12.  (C)  The document is bold in scope but its lack of 
specifics and the amount of time it covers raise questions 
about its utility.  It is a long range plan to eliminate 
persistent poverty (and the health and security problems 
derived from poverty) that has afflicted Honduras despite 
decades of foreign assistance.  It counts on a wide range of 
citizen participation touching all sectors of society and 
forms an integral part of President Lobo's plans to unify the 
country and create a government of national unity. 
 
¶13.  (C)  At the same time, the current situation confronting 
Honduras - a result of economic mismanagement, the coup 
d'etat and the international financial crisis - make it 
difficult to predict events in the coming weeks let alone 28 
years into the future.  The document does not discuss how 
programs it recommends will be funded.  The international 
community, which was not party to the process of creating 
this document, may have reservations about being asked to 
fund its implementation. Nevertheless, the document may 
provide strategic parameters prepared by the Hondurans 
themselves that may be helpful to donor agencies that seek to 
reengage in the future. 
LLORENS