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DE RUEHNT #0037/01 0251253
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R 251253Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY TASHKENT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1782
INFO RUEHNT/AMEMBASSY TASHKENT

UNCLAS TASHKENT 000037 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM UZ
SUBJECT: CORRECTED COPY: PUNCTUATION MALFUNCTION: UZBEK PARLIAMENTARY 
ELECTIONS: FINAL WRAP-UP 
 
REF: 09 TASHKENT 1651 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: After the second round of parliamentary elections 
took place in 39 constituencies on January 10, Uzbekistan's 
Liberal-Democratic Party emerged with over 35% of the seats in the 
Lower House of Parliament, the Oliy Majlis. Relative party 
percentages remain almost unchanged from the previous parliament, 
and Dilorom Tashmuhammedova was reelected as the Speaker of the 
Lower House on January 22. Analysis of the candidate list indicates 
that Uzbeks from a broad range of occupations and backgrounds ran 
for office, and the newly elected members of parliament (MPs) 
reflect some of the diversity of Uzbek society. Parties approached 
the election campaign with a novel spirit of competitiveness, but 
only time will tell whether that spirit will live on in parliament. 
All in all, the elections can best be interpreted as a tightly 
managed political exercise, with some elements of "choice" at the 
margins. END SUMMARY. 
 
 
 
SECOND ROUND VOTING 
 
-------------------- 
 
 
 
¶2. (U) In the first round of elections on December 27, 96 
candidates received the required number of votes to claim their 
seats without a run-off election. A second round of voting was held 
on January 10 for the remaining 39 seats. In each of these 39 
constituencies, voters chose between the two candidates who 
received the most votes on December 27. According to the GOU's 
statistics, there was 79.7% voter turn-out in the second round of 
the elections, but it is likely that these numbers were inflated by 
the widespread practice of proxy or "family" voting (see reftel). 
Almost one third of the run-offs took place in the Ferghana 
District. According to a contact from that region, many residents 
of Ferghana crossed off all of the candidates on the ballot in the 
first round of voting, a possible sign of disgruntlement and 
frustration. 
 
 
 
DEBUNKING THE CONSPIRACY THEORIES 
 
--------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶3. (SBU) Conspiracy theories about the elections abound, but (as is 
often the case with conspiracy theories) lack proof, and require 
giant leaps of logic. No international observers witnessed the 
second round of voting, and therefore the local independent media 
has speculated that the run-offs were engineered precisely so that 
any irregularities would take place away from prying international 
eyes. However, the available evidence suggests that the run-off 
elections were probably just what they seemed. By examining 
candidate lists, listening to the parties, and observing the voting 
at the polls, our conclusion is that the elections, though flawed, 
were not just a sham, totally orchestrated by the central 
government. The candidate list was restricted by the government, 
but the people running for office were the usual suspects for a 
parliamentary election-local politicians and community organizers, 
heads of agricultural collectives, and general pillars of the 
community, including doctors, lawyers, businessmen, and school 
directors. In fact, one of the Embassy's Democracy Commission 
grantees, the chairwoman of the Water Users' Association in the 
Ferghana Valley, is one of the newly elected MPs. 
 
 
 
¶4. (SBU) Based on what we do know, the following scenario seems to 
be the best explanation of how the electoral process works in 
Uzbekistan: First, the parties identify citizens whom they see as 
good parliamentary candidates. (NOTE: The parties are made up of 
those politically active citizens who have "bought in" to the GOU's 
political message--e.g. the idea that Uzbekistan needs a strong 
central government and "evolutionary" progress towards democracy. 
Opposition candidates need not apply.) Second, the parties likely 
submit their lists of potential candidates to the GOU security 
apparatus for vetting. Again, any signs of opposition or dissent 
would be deal-breakers. And finally, the government conducts the 
elections themselves as correctly as possible, secure in the 
knowledge that no opposition candidates are even on the ballot. 
Following the theory that the simplest explanation is usually the 
best, this scenario makes far more sense than the idea that the 
entire elections process is a faC'ade masking a process that was 
engineered from the outset. 
 
 
LIBERAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY DOMINATES 
 
--------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶5. (U) The Liberal-Democratic Party, considered the party of 
entrepreneurs and businessmen and the party most closely associated 
with Islom Karimov, will dominate the Oliy Majlis with 53 seats 
(about 35% of the total). Since 10% of the seats in the Lower House 
were reserved for representatives from the Ecological 
Movement-chosen separately at an Environmental Movement convention- 
the Liberal-Democratic Party actually won more than 39% of 
contested seats. The People's Democratic Party of Uzbekistan earned 
32 seats (about 21% of the total), the "Milliy Tiklanish" (National 
Revival) Democratic Party took 31 seats (about 20.6%), and the 
"Adolat" (Justice) Social Democratic Party took 19 seats (about 
12.6%). This breakdown of seats is virtually unchanged from the 
previous parliament--the main differences are the addition of 
Ecological Movement MPs, the absence of independent MPs, and the 
slight gain in the standings of the People's Democratic Party of 
Uzbekistan (PDP). (In the previous parliament, the PDP trailed 
Milliy Tiklanish by one seat; now they have taken second place by a 
margin of one seat.) Interestingly, we learned that although 
independent nominees were not allowed on the ballot this year, at 
least one party (Adolat) nominated several candidates that are not 
party members--so, in a sense, independent candidates could run, as 
long as they were nominated by an official party. On January 22, 
the new parliament was convened and Dilorom Tashmuhammedova was 
reelected to her post as Speaker of the Lower House. Five vice 
speakers--the heads of each of the four political parties and the 
Ecological Movement--were also chosen during the first session of 
parliament. 
 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) A spirit of competitiveness among the parties reared its 
head for the first time during this parliamentary election 
campaign. The local U.S. representative of the National Democratic 
Institute commented that he thought party members had really taken 
his campaign pointers to heart. He suggested that candidates visit 
voters and leave campaign literature with the candidate's name and 
picture, and a clear, pithy slogan, and many candidates definitely 
did distribute campaign literature meeting those specifications. 
Each of the parties vaguely follows an international party model 
(e.g. the Social Democratic Party sees itself as a sister 
organization to Social Democratic parties in Europe), which 
theoretically gives them a great deal of latitude for debate. 
However, in practice the parties do not engage in dissent with the 
executive branch. Party representatives claim that they are 
learning to exercise influence on legislation and policy, as part 
of Uzbekistan's "evolutionary" transition to democracy, and they 
certainly have been more vocal in their inter-party disagreements. 
It will be interesting to see whether their newfound sense of power 
and competitiveness will influence their actions and interactions 
when parliament is convened. 
 
 
 
MANY LAWYERS, MORE WOMEN, FEW INCUMBENTS 
 
---------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶7. (U) The new line-up of deputies will include 37 economists and 
34 lawyers (24.7% and 22.7% percent of the total number of 
deputies, respectively), although Central Election Commission 
Chairman Mirza-Ulugbek Abdusalomov emphasized that "the lower house 
represents nearly all segments of society." The number of female 
deputies in the Oliy Majlis increased from 21 (about 17.5% of the 
120 member parliament) to 33 (22% of the 150 member parliament). 
Only 31.3% of the elected members of parliament are incumbents, but 
local political experts believe that they will provide sufficient 
institutional knowledge to ensure a smooth transition. This 
seemingly low number of incumbents should not be interpreted as a 
popular rebuke of the previous parliament; in fact, only 53 
incumbent parliamentarians were on the ballot. Of the 53 that ran 
for reelection, 47 won. The big question (for which we have no 
answer) is whether those 67 former deputies chose not to run for 
reelection for personal reasons, or whether their parties chose not 
to nominate them for political reasons. 
 
 
¶8. (SBU) COMMENT: The elections were neither free nor fair, but 
perhaps they were not wholly worthless. The GOU kept opposition 
candidates off the ballot and controlled the media, as they always 
do. Ironically, though, our sense is that the election outcome 
would probably not change very much in a fully free and fair 
election. Although many ordinary Uzbek citizens are unhappy with 
the state of affairs in the country-especially when it affects 
their pocketbooks-few of them actually oppose the government at 
this point. Whether this reflects the placid political culture or 
deeper fear of repression, or both, is the subject of constant 
analysis. We can only hope that "democratic exercises" like these 
parliamentary elections will be small building blocks for real 
democracy in the future. END COMMENT. 
NORLAND