VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHNT #0100/01 0250927
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 250926Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY TASHKENT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1779
INFO RUEHNT/AMEMBASSY TASHKENT

UNCLAS TASHKENT 000100 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM UZ
SUBJECT: UZBEK PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS: FINAL WRAP-UP 
 
REF: 09 TASHKENT 1651 
 
¶1.       (SBU)  SUMMARY:  After the second round of parliamentary 
elections took place in 39 constituencies on January 10, 
Uzbekistan's Liberal-Democratic Party emerged with over 35% of the 
seats in the Lower House of Parliament, the Oliy Majlis.  Relative 
party percentages remain almost unchanged from the previous 
parliament, and Dilorom Toshmuhammadova was reelected as the 
Speaker of the Lower House on January 22.  Analysis of the 
candidate list indicates that Uzbeks from a broad range of 
occupations and backgrounds ran for office, and the newly elected 
members of parliament (MPs) reflect some of the diversity of Uzbek 
society.  Parties approached the election campaign with a novel 
spirit of competitiveness, but only time will tell whether that 
spirit will live on in parliament.  All in all, the elections can 
best be interpreted as a tightly managed political exercise, with 
some elements of "choice" at the margins.  END SUMMARY. 
 
SECOND ROUND VOTING 
 
¶2.       (U)  In the first round of elections on December 27, 96 
candidates received the required number of votes to claim their 
seats without a run-off election.  A second round of voting was 
held on January 10 for the remaining 39 seats.  In each of these 39 
constituencies, voters chose between the two candidates who 
received the most votes on December 27.  According to the GOU's 
statistics, there was 79.7% voter turn-out in the second round of 
the elections, but it is likely that these numbers were inflated by 
the widespread practice of proxy or "family" voting (see reftel). 
Almost one third of the run-offs took place in the Ferghana 
District.  According to a contact from that region, many residents 
of Ferghana crossed off all of the candidates on the ballot in the 
first round of voting, a possible sign of disgruntlement and 
frustration. 
 
DEBUNKING THE CONSPIRACY THEORIES 
 
¶3.       (SBU)  Conspiracy theories about the elections abound, but 
(as is often the case with conspiracy theories) lack proof, and 
require giant leaps of logic.  No international observers witnessed 
the second round of voting, and therefore the local independent 
media has speculated that the run-offs were engineered precisely so 
that any irregularities would take place away from prying 
international eyes.  However, the available evidence suggests that 
the run-off elections were probably just what they seemed.  By 
examining candidate lists, listening to the parties, and observing 
the voting at the polls, our conclusion is that the elections, 
though flawed, were not just a sham, totally orchestrated by the 
central government.  The candidate list was restricted by the 
government, but the people running for office were the usual 
suspects for a parliamentary election-local politicians and 
community organizers, heads of agricultural collectives, and 
general pillars of the community, including doctors, lawyers, 
businessmen, and school directors.  In fact, one of the Embassy's 
Democracy Commission grantees, the chairwoman of the Water Users' 
Association in the Ferghana Valley, is one of the newly elected 
MPs. 
 
¶4.       (SBU)  Based on what we do know, the following scenario 
seems to be the best explanation of how the electoral process works 
in Uzbekistan: First, the parties identify citizens whom they see 
as good parliamentary candidates.  (NOTE:  The parties are made up 
of those politically active citizens who have "bought in" to the 
GOU's political message-e.g. the idea that Uzbekistan needs a 
strong central government and "evolutionary" progress towards 
democracy.  Opposition candidates need not apply.)  Second, the 
parties likely submit their lists of potential candidates to the 
GOU security apparatus for vetting.  Again, any signs of opposition 
or dissent would be deal-breakers.  And finally, the government 
conducts the elections themselves as correctly as possible, secure 
in the knowledge that no opposition candidates are even on the 
ballot.  Following the theory that the simplest explanation is 
usually the best, this scenario makes far more sense than the idea 
that the entire elections process is a fa????ade masking a process 
that was engineered from the outset. 
 
LIBERAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY DOMINATES 
 
¶5.       (U)  The Liberal-Democratic Party, considered the party of 
entrepreneurs and businessmen and the party most closely associated 
with Islom Karimov, will dominate the Oliy Majlis with 53 seats 
(about 35% of the total).  Since 10% of the seats in the Lower 
House were reserved for representatives from the Ecological 
Movement-chosen separately at an Environmental Movement convention- 
the Liberal-Democratic Party actually won more than 39% of 
contested seats.  The People's Democratic Party of Uzbekistan 
earned 32 seats (about 21% of the total), the "Milliy Tiklanish" 
(National Revival) Democratic Party took 31 seats (about 20.6%), 
and the "Adolat" (Justice) Social Democratic Party took 19 seats 
 
(about 12.6%).  This breakdown of seats is virtually unchanged from 
the previous parliament-the main differences are the addition of 
Ecological Movement MPs, the absence of independent MPs, and the 
slight gain in the standings of the People's Democratic Party of 
Uzbekistan (PDP).  (In the previous parliament, the PDP trailed 
Milliy Tiklanish by one seat; now they have taken second place by a 
margin of one seat.)  Interestingly, we learned that although 
independent nominees were not allowed on the ballot this year, at 
least one party (Adolat) nominated several candidates that are not 
party members-so, in a sense, independent candidates could run, as 
long as they were nominated by an official party.  On January 22, 
the new parliament was convened and Dilorom Tashmuhammedova was 
reelected to her post as Speaker of the Lower House.  Five vice 
speakers-the heads of each of the four political parties and the 
Ecological Movement-were also chosen during the first session of 
parliament. 
 
¶6.       (SBU)  A spirit of competitiveness among the parties 
reared its head for the first time during this parliamentary 
election campaign.  The local U.S. representative of the National 
Democratic Institute commented that he thought party members had 
really taken his campaign pointers to heart.  He suggested that 
candidates visit voters and leave campaign literature with the 
candidate's name and picture, and a clear, pithy slogan-and many 
candidates definitely did distribute campaign literature meeting 
those specifications.  Each of the parties vaguely follows an 
international party model (e.g. the Social Democratic Party sees 
itself as a sister organization to Social Democratic parties in 
Europe), which theoretically gives them a great deal of latitude 
for debate.   However, in practice the parties do not engage in 
dissent with the executive branch.  Party representatives claim 
that they are learning to exercise influence on legislation and 
policy, as part of Uzbekistan's "evolutionary" transition to 
democracy, and they certainly have been more vocal in their 
inter-party disagreements.  It will be interesting to see whether 
their newfound sense of power and competitiveness will influence 
their actions and interactions when parliament is convened. 
 
MANY LAWYERS, MORE WOMEN, FEW INCUMBENTS 
 
¶7.       (U)  The new line-up of deputies will include 37 
economists and 34 lawyers (24.7% and 22.7% percent of the total 
number of deputies, respectively), although Central Election 
Commission Chairman Mirza-Ulugbek Abdusalomov emphasized that "the 
lower house represents nearly all segments of society."  The number 
of female deputies in the Oliy Majlis increased from 21 (about 
17.5% of the 120 member parliament) to 33 (22% of the 150 member 
parliament).  Only 31.3% of the elected members of parliament are 
incumbents, but local political experts believe that they will 
provide sufficient institutional knowledge to ensure a smooth 
transition.  This seemingly low number of incumbents should not be 
interpreted as a popular rebuke of the previous parliament; in 
fact, only 53 incumbent parliamentarians were on the ballot.  Of 
the 53 that ran for reelection, 47 won.  The big question (for 
which we have no answer) is whether those 67 former deputies chose 
not to run for reelection for personal reasons, or whether their 
parties chose not to nominate them for political reasons. 
 
¶8.       (SBU)  COMMENT:  The elections were neither free nor fair, 
but perhaps they were not wholly worthless.  The GOU kept 
opposition candidates off the ballot and controlled the media, as 
they always do.  Ironically, though, our sense is that the election 
outcome would probably not change very much in a fully free and 
fair election.  Although many ordinary Uzbek citizens are unhappy 
with the state of affairs in the country-especially when it affects 
their pocketbooks-few of them actually oppose the government at 
this point.  Whether this reflects the placid political culture or 
deeper fear of repression, or both, is the subject of constant 
analysis.  We can only hope that "democratic exercises" like these 
parliamentary elections will be small building blocks for real 
democracy in the future.  END COMMENT. 
NORLAND