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DE RUEHSG #0017/01 0151459
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O 151459Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0537
INFO RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
WESTERN HEMISPHERIC AFFAIRS DIPL POSTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SANTIAGO 000017 
 
SIPDIS 
DEPT OF LABOR FOR SECRETARY SOLIS 
AMEMBASSY BRIDGETOWN PASS TO AMEMBASSY GRENADA 
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PASS TO AMCONSUL QUEBEC 
AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PASS TO AMCONSUL RECIFE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/01/15 
TAGS: PREL PGOV OAS HO CI
SUBJECT: Former President Lagos Discusses Honduras, Latin America 
with A/S Valenzuela 
 
REF: A) 09 SANTIAGO 831; B) 09 SANTIAGO 935 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Simons, Paul, AMB, State; REASON: 1.4(B), (D) 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary:   During a January 11 meeting with A/S Valenzuela, 
former President Ricardo Lagos offered any help he can provide in 
persuading de facto Honduran leader Roberto Micheletti to step down 
prior to the inauguration of president-elect Porfirio Lobo on 
January 27.  Lagos also discussed plans to put together a working 
group of center-left progressive regional leaders and predicted 
that Chile's policies will change little even if opposition 
candidate Sebastian Pinera wins the January 17 presidential run-off 
election.  End summary. 
 
 
 
Honduras 
 
------------ 
 
 
 
¶2.  (C) Former President Ricardo Lagos (1994 - 2000) discussed 
Honduras with A/S Valenzuela in a January 11 meeting in Santiago. 
(Note: Lagos co-chairs the Tegucigalpa-San Jose Accord 
implementation committee together with U.S. Secretary of Labor 
Hilda Solis.  See Refs A and B.  End note).  Valenzuela was 
accompanied by the Ambassador, Poloff, and Pol Specialist 
(notetaker).  Echoing his previous remarks to the Ambassador, Lagos 
commented that he had called Cardinal Oscar Andres Rodriguez 
several weeks ago to insist that it would be completely 
unacceptable for the de-facto president, Roberto Micheletti, to 
hand over the presidential sash to President-elect Porfirio Lobo on 
January 27.  He urged the Cardinal to help persuade Micheletti to 
step down.  The Cardinal told Lagos that he could try to convince 
Micheletti to hand-over the sash to the President of the Congress 
during the day of the ceremony in private, so as to not appear at 
the ceremony, an idea Lagos characterized as "absurd."  He lamented 
that the Cardinal had not played the role he could have at the 
right moment.  Lagos told A/S Valenzuela that he would be 
"delighted to be of service, if you believe it could be helpful." 
 
 
 
¶3.  (C) Lagos agreed with A/S Valenzuela that a refusal by 
Micheletti to step down prior to Lobo's inauguration represents a 
starting handicap for Lobo.  Lobo will need to find an exit 
solution for deposed President Zelaya and generate legitimacy for 
his new administration in the eyes of the international community. 
A/S Valenzuela expressed that it might be helpful, after a period 
of time, for the OAS to issue a report on mechanisms to improve 
democratic governance. 
 
 
 
¶4.  (C) Regarding the implementation of a truth commission, as 
stipulated in the San Jose Accord, Lagos confirmed that it has not 
yet been announced.  He said that the Implementation Commission 
decided that announcing it in the context of current tensions would 
throw more fuel on the fire.  He explained that the commission had 
discussed a timeframe for beginning its work in March. 
 
 
 
Latin America is Not Just Chavez and Micheletti 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----------------- 
 
 
 
¶5.  (C) When turning to other concerns in the region, former 
President Lagos lamented what he considers a common 
over-simplification of Latin American political trends.  While 
acknowledging that many countries in the neighborhood face serious 
problems -- he mentioned Venezuela and Argentina in particular -- 
Lagos posited that the prevalent view that Latin America countries 
are either in the hands of the extreme left or the extreme right is 
an unhelpful generalization.  For example, Lagos suggested that the 
election of Jose Mujica in Uruguay, despite his revolutionary past, 
does not represent significant political change.  Lagos also 
 
SANTIAGO 00000017  002 OF 003 
 
 
expressed his view that "Chavez's influence in the region is in 
decline."  He predicted that a loss for Chile's center-left 
governing coalition in the January 17 presidential runoff may 
generate speculation about a shift of political power to the right 
in Latin America, which would also be an incomplete view of 
regional politics.  Similarly, potential victories of Jose Serra in 
Brazil and Argentine opposition candidates would not reflect any 
fundamental shift to the right. 
 
 
 
¶6.  (C) In order to "breakdown the idea that there are only 
Chavezes and Michelettis in Latin America" Lagos discussed the 
possibility of developing a progressive leaders' working group for 
the region that would include U.S. members.  Potential participants 
could include Presidents Michelle Bachelet (Chile) and Tabare 
Vazquez (Uruguay) after their terms end.  Lagos mentioned that he 
had already discussed the idea with former President Felipe 
Gonzalez (Spain), who liked the idea.  He insisted that it is 
important to demonstrate that Latin America has a "center-left that 
is modern, sensible, and lucid" and that efforts to do so would be 
worth the time invested.  The Ambassador expressed that the 
Progressive Summit held in March 2009, attended by Vice-President 
Biden, was a successful event along those lines. 
 
 
 
Chilean-Peruvian Relations: Arms Issues and the Maritime Border 
Dispute 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------------------- 
----------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶7.  (C) Lagos discussed Chile-Peru tensions, explaining that 
Peruvians are concerned that Chile's relations with the U.S. "are 
too close," adding that Peru is especially sensitive to the issue 
of arms purchases.  He explained that, under his mandate, Chile had 
tried to develop an agreement with Peru and the United Nations for 
making both countries' arms purchases transparent, along the lines 
of Chile's agreement with Argentina where both countries inform the 
UN of their arms procurement.  Despite his efforts, they were never 
able to establish such an agreement with Peru. 
 
 
 
¶8. (C) Lagos also related how the Chile-Peru maritime border 
dispute, currently in the International Court of Justice at the 
Hague, began to heat up during his term in office (1994- 2000).  He 
explained that the center of the dispute really has to do with 
Peruvian concerns that Bolivia will secure a marine access corridor 
via an agreement with Chile, something was under discussion during 
Lagos' time and is part of Chile's 13-point agenda with Bolivia 
today. 
 
 
 
Chile's Domestic Politics: Chile Won't Change Much If Conservative 
Pinera Wins 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------------------- 
---------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶9.  (C)  When asked by A/S Valenzuela if Chile would change if 
opposition conservative candidate Sebastian Pinera wins the 
upcoming presidential runoff on January 17, Lagos responded with a 
very confident, "No, I don't think so."  He predicted that, if 
elected, Pinera will take a Sarkozy-like approach and try to create 
an image of broad inclusiveness in his government, "which would be 
good."  He also predicted that Pinera will not change Chile's 
social policies if elected, as there are resources to maintain them 
and Chile will most likely be entering a new period of economic 
growth.  (Note: Chile's current social protection policies are 
considered a hallmark of highly popular outgoing President Michelle 
Bachelet. End note.)  When comparing notes with A/S Valenzuela 
about the voter registration drive in the late 1980s, prior to the 
 
SANTIAGO 00000017  003 OF 003 
 
 
end of Chile's dictatorship, Lagos described the country as being 
"at a different stage now." 
 
 
 
¶10. (U)  The Assistant Secretary cleared this cable. 
SIMONS