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INFO WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 000057 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/01/28 
TAGS: PREL PGOV ES
SUBJECT: Signs of Life: A New ARENA Strategy Takes Shape 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: RBlau, CDA, DOS; REASON: 1.4(D) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: Former (conservative) ARENA presidential hopeful, 
Luis Mario Rodriguez, told PolOffs the party is formulating a new 
strategy to confront two main challenges: opposing the hard-line 
FMLN's agenda and resisting the corrupting influence of former 
President Tony Saca.  Rodriguez spoke highly of President Mauricio 
Funes, whose Friends of Mauricio/Citizen Movement for Change 
organization he believes could be ARENA's ally for the 2014 
presidential election.  ARENA finally appears to be taking steps to 
make the necessary course corrections to fix the problems that led 
to its defeat and subsequent turmoil in 2009.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (C) Luis Mario Rodriguez, former Legal Advisor to President Tony 
Saca and ARENA presidential hopeful in 2008, told PolOffs January 
28 that his party is applying lessons learned from its 2009 
presidential election defeat and subsequent internal strife to 
develop a new strategy.  Rodriguez, who sided with the party in its 
ongoing dispute with former President Saca, said ARENA leaders see 
the party fighting on two fronts: against the hard-line FMLN and 
against Saca and the party rumored to be on his payroll after 
splitting from ARENA, the Grand Alliance for National Unity (GANA). 
To confront these challenges, Rodriguez believes ARENA will need 
its strongest, most experienced members to continue to lead, 
despite the message it might send to critics who say those old 
guard members favor the economic elite and refuse to relinquish 
power to a new generation of leaders.  Rodriguez said the party 
would alleviate this criticism by publicly acknowledging past 
mistakes, adjusting its platform to allow for more equitable tax 
and spending policies, and answering President Funes's call for a 
national consensus on public security. 
 
¶3. (C) Rodriguez lauded President Funes's performance to date, 
saying Funes had made strides toward winning the confidence of El 
Salvador's private sector.  He said ARENA President (and former 
Salvadoran president from 1989-94) Alfredo Cristiani maintains a 
good working relationship with Funes and that the two sides meet 
regularly on a variety of issues.  Rodriguez believes that ARENA's 
support for Funes and his ongoing dispute with the FMLN could open 
the door to a convergence of interests between Funes's (non-FMLN) 
supporters and ARENA for the 2014 presidential election. 
 
¶4. (C) In a sign of just how controversial former President Saca 
remains inside ARENA, Rodriguez also said he and others in ARENA 
were alarmed by Honduran President Pepe Lobo's praise for Tony Saca 
in his January 27 inauguration address.  Rodriguez said Salvadoran 
private sector representatives warned Lobo about Saca's 
controversial reputation at a recent meeting in Guatemala. 
However, press reports indicate that in addition to Saca, Lobo 
invited former President Calderon Sol, a Saca critic, to the 
inauguration as well. 
 
¶5. (C) Comment: The way forward outlined by Rodriguez is the first 
sign that ARENA's leadership is taking concrete steps to recover 
from its disastrous passivity in the face of its electoral defeat 
in March 2009 and the damage done by former President Saca and his 
supporters.  We are encouraged that ARENA's leaders appear to 
recognize the GOES needs to address El Salvador's huge wealth 
disparities, and that it can do so without resorting to the radical 
measures advocated by FMLN hard-liners.  More importantly, we are 
relieved that after almost a year of internal turmoil, ARENA's 
leadership is finally taking steps to move beyond the post-election 
confusion brought on by GANA's breakaway and the subsequent 
expulsion of former President Saca.  ARENA can now begin to play 
the essential role of loyal opposition and find a way to support 
President Funes in his struggle with FMLN hard-liners. 
BLAU