VZCZCXYZ0019
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSJ #0003/01 0111454
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 111453Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY SAN JOSE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0241
INFO WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SAN JOSE 000003 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
DEPT FOR WHA/CEN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PINR PGOV CS PLN KDEM
SUBJECT: COSTA RICA FLEXING ITS DEMOCRATIC MUSCLES 
 
REF: 09 SAN JOSE 624; 09 SAN JOSE 815; 09 SAN JOSE 714 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: At a time when the electoral systems of some 
others in the region are wrapped in controversy, Costa Rica appears 
to be maintaining its status as a model of institutional democracy 
in Central America as the country moves towards national elections 
on February 7. The near-total demise of the corruption-wracked 
Social-Christian Unity Party (PUSC) has actually shown the strength 
of Costa Rica's democracy, as newer parties have stepped up to 
attract voters by offering differing visions for Costa Rica's 
future without reverting to Chavez-style populism. While this is 
the product of a healthy democracy, the practical short-term result 
of this shift will likely result in further fragmentation within 
the Legislative Assembly. End Summary. 
 
 
 
The Break-Down of Two Party Politics 
 
 
 
¶2. (SBU) Costa Rica's political landscape has long been dominated 
by two forces-current President Oscar Arias' center-left National 
Liberation Party (PLN) and the center-right PUSC. This year has 
seen the continued emaciation of PUSC, which had won back-to-back 
presidential terms as recently as 1998/2002. Voters are punishing 
PUSC for the rampant corruption that had become endemic within the 
party over the past ten years, highlighted by the conviction of 
former President (and until-then PUSC presidential candidate) 
Rafael Angel Calderon on corruption charges in October 2009. PUSC's 
current candidate for president is polling at around five percent, 
while the party is expected to win only about five spots in the 
57-seat Legislative Assembly. 
 
 
 
¶3. (SBU) The organic break-up of the traditional two-party system 
has opened the door to political movements that have grown out of 
the traditional parties and express voter frustration with the 
status quo. Otton Solis from the Citizen Action Party (PAC) nearly 
won the 2006 presidential election (Ref C), and is challenging the 
PLN from the left with an anti-globalization and anti-corruption 
platform.  Otto Guevara from the Libertarian Movement (ML) is 
making a claim for PUSC's traditional base on the right with a 
tough-on-crime stance. (Note:  Although the ML advocates for a 
number of libertarian principles, Guevara himself has taken on more 
of a center-right platform during his campaign)   Though some 
voters see the candidates (who both ran in 2006) as political 
retreads who offer few new ideas, others view them as real 
alternatives to the PLN's Laura Chinchilla (Ref B).  And while 
neither candidate looks likely to knock Chinchilla from her perch 
as frontrunner, Guevara in particular has made gains in recent 
months, and according to polls is firmly establishing himself in 
second place (though he still trails Chinchilla by roughly 20 
points). 
 
 
 
¶4. (SBU) The likely result of this shift from two-party dominance 
will be a Legislative Assembly that is even more divided than the 
one that has struggled to enact reforms over the past four years. 
Both ML and PAC probably will win a block of seats, and legislators 
from a number of small parties will complicate the mix .  This 
could negatively impact the next administration's ability to get 
business done, from merely administering the economy (which 
requires Assembly approval of international loans, for example), to 
making much needed changes to energy policy or fiscal management. 
To govern effectively, the plurality party will likely need to form 
a coalition within the Assembly, which will be more difficult with 
increased fragmentation. 
 
 
 
Foreign Policy 
 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) With domestic security issues currently dominating the 
campaign, the candidates have not focused on foreign policy.  In 
discussing their plans for governing with the Charge in late 2009, 
the three leading candidates seemed to have given almost no thought 
to foreign affairs other than Costa Rica's relationship with the 
 
U.S.  Strikingly, when asked what his foreign policy priorities 
would be, Otton Solis replied, "For example?"  It is unlikely that 
any of the candidates will be as active internationally as 
President Arias, who brought his Nobel prize and prior presidential 
experience to international relations.  Additionally, it is 
unlikely that any of the candidates would reverse any of the Arias 
administration changes in foreign policy such as the government's 
recognition of China and Cuba.  Should Chinchilla win she is 
expected to continue with the major foreign policy priorities of 
the Arias administration.  Chinchilla, who once worked as a USAID 
contractor, seeks to continue improving ties with the U.S., 
specifically on security and economic issues.  She has also 
expressed interest in working with Secretary Clinton on women's 
empowerment issues (Chinchilla's main proposals are outlined in Ref 
B). 
 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) Guevara, should he mount a come-from-behind victory, would 
also seek close relations with the U.S., and is staking his claim 
for the presidency on addressing Costa Rica's growing crime 
problem. Guevara has said publicly he would disband Costa Rica's 
intelligence service-DIS-and Chinchilla has suggested she would 
change it significantly.  Guevara has also pledged to reduce or 
remove a number of domestic and import taxes in seeking to increase 
Costa Rica's level of international trade.  Otton Solis has called 
for a renegotiation of CAFTA-DR and threatened to abolish 
free-trade zones in the country.  However, Solis says he wants to 
continue to build ties with the U.S..  Solis told us he would seek 
to continue cooperation on security issues if elected, but has 
voiced concerns about the possible "militarization" of Costa Rica. 
 
 
 
 
Comment: A Bolivarian Republic It Is Not 
 
 
 
¶7. (SBU) With its political party structure in flux, Costa Rica is 
noteworthy for what has not developed: a neo-populist movement. 
Though neo-populism has sprung up throughout the region, Costa 
Rica's conservative society has proved unreceptive to "Chavismo". 
Even the left-of-center Solis both publicly and privately steers 
clear of any comparison with Chavez and instead portrays his party 
as kin to the U.S. Democratic party. This is in part due to an 
eminently democratic spirit and a significant middle class in Costa 
Rica, which serves as a moderating force politically and socially. 
However, it is also due to the existence of a properly functioning 
democracy in which a free press uncovers, the judiciary prosecutes, 
and then voters punish the worst instincts of politicians. 
BRENNAN