VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHYN #0168/01 0261359
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 261359Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY SANAA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3645
INFO RUEHDO/AMEMBASSY DOHA 0435
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0287
RUEHRH/AMEMBASSY RIYADH 1737
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SANAA 000168 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
FOR NEA/ARP AMACDONALD AND LFREEMAN AND INR JYAPHE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/26/2020 
TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS YM SA
SUBJECT: REBELS ANNOUNCE CEASEFIRE WITH SAUDI... IS A YEMEN 
PEACE DEAL NEXT? 
 
REF: A. RIYADH 78 
     ¶B. SANAA 64 
     ¶C. SANAA 137 
 
Classified By: CDA Angie Bryan for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY.  In an audio message on January 25, rebel 
leader Abdulmalik al-Houthi announced a unilateral ceasefire 
with Saudi Arabia and the withdrawal of Houthi rebels from 
Saudi territory, just two weeks after Saudi Arabia announced 
victory against the Houthis and - according to the Saudi side 
- significantly reduced military operations against the 
rebels.  Although the ROYG has remained mum on the news, a 
ROYG-Houthi deal looks promising, especially in light of the 
ROYG's hopes for capitalizing on the upcoming London 
conference to secure potential funding for Yemen.  If the 
Saudi ceasefire takes hold and President Saleh is again left 
alone to fight the Houthis, he might have the necessary 
impetus to give peace a chance.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (C) Rebel leader Abdulmalik al-Houthi announced in a 
January 25 audio recording that the Houthis were initiating a 
unilateral ceasefire and withdrawal from Saudi Arabia, who 
has been fighting the rebels since November 3.  Al-Haq Party 
Secretary General Hassan Zayd, who regularly mediates with 
the ROYG on behalf of the Houthis, told PolOff on January 26 
that the Houthis had completely pulled out of Saudi 
territory, made possible by the cessation of Saudi airstrikes 
two weeks ago.  (Note: On January 12, Saudi Deputy Defense 
Minister Prince Khalid bin Sultan announced that the Saudis 
had defeated the Houthi rebels, a claim the Houthis 
immediately denied (Ref A).  End Note.)  Ruling General 
People's Congress (GPC) Head of Foreign Relations Mohammed 
al-Qubati told PolOff on January 26 that the ROYG considered 
Houthi's statement a "recognition of the status quo" - the 
Houthis had been defeated by the Saudis and driven back from 
the border.  Houthi said the ceasefire's goal was to "stop 
the bloodshed and bring an end to aggression against 
civilians."  (Note: Although the SAG and some Houthi contacts 
say Saudi military operations were significantly curtailed in 
recent weeks, the official Houthi media continues to report 
on airstrikes resulting in civilian deaths.  End Note.)  Some 
observers, however, believe that the Houthis are finally 
feeling the toll of six months of fighting against two 
militaries (Ref B) and, according to Zayd, are fearful of 
potentially unfavorable discussions on Sa'ada during the 
January 27 London conference. 
 
¶3.  (C) Post contacts assess that the ceasefire announcement 
was precipitated by secret negotiations involving two 
influential mediators - al-Jawf tribal leader Sheikh Amin 
al-Ukaymi, an opposition Islah MP with close ties to Saudi 
Arabia, and the Qatari government, which brokered the failed 
2007 ceasefire agreement between the ROYG and the Houthis. 
On January 26, independent NewsYemen reported on an agreement 
between the ROYG, the SAG and the Houthis based on the 
Houthis' verbal acceptance of the ROYG's six points, 
including the sixth point of complete withdrawal from Saudi 
territory.  According to NewsYemen, the ROYG will soon 
suspend military operations for 30 days to give the Houthis a 
chance to comply with the remaining five points, including 
conditions such as turning in weapons and abandoning military 
positions and illegal checkpoints.  (Note: The Houthis 
officially accepted all six conditions in a January 6 letter 
delivered to President Saleh.  End Note.) 
 
¶4.  (C) Presidential Advisor for Sa'ada Affairs Mohammed 
Azzan confirmed that the deal with Saudi Arabia was a result 
of weeks of shuttle diplomacy by Ukaymi.  Resuming its 2007 
role as mediator, the government of Qatar has also been 
involved in secret negotiations between the ROYG and the 
Houthis, according to Zayd.  NewsYemen reported that Qatar 
agreed to assume the substantial cost of reconstructing 
Sa'ada.  In mid-January, Qatari Emir Hamad bin Khalifa 
al-Thani announced the establishment of a new charity fund 
for Yemen, which many Yemenis took as a precursor to a 
comprehensive Qatari-funded ceasefire and reconstruction 
effort. 
 
¶5.  (C) While the ROYG has not yet made an official 
announcement, speculation on a near-term ROYG-Houthi 
ceasefire is rampant.  The GPC's Qubati, who in his role as a 
ruling party leader has recently been involved in high-level 
discussions on Sa'ada, said he would not be surprised if he 
saw a ROYG-Houthi ceasefire in the next two to three days, 
and added that discussions regarding reconstruction of Sa'ada 
 
had already begun in top government circles.  Ending 
hostilities between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis was an 
important precondition to a ceasefire in Yemen, according to 
presidential advisor Azzan.  Many Sana'a political observers, 
including NDI Deputy Country Director Murad Zafir, believe 
that President Saleh would never choose to end the war in 
Sa'ada while the Saudis were still heavily engaged. 
 
¶6.  (C) With the London conference approaching, the ROYG has 
been sending conciliatory signals on a number of fronts - 
from its enthusiasm for tackling al-Qaeda in the Arabian 
Peninsula to resuming dialogue with the opposition parties 
(Ref C) and, potentially, striking a deal with the Houthi 
rebels.  The ROYG recognizes the potential for securing 
additional donor funding to deal with Yemen's many 
challenges, as long as it demonstrates a political will to 
reform.  In comments to London-based al-Hayah Online, Deputy 
Minister for Planning and International Cooperation Hisham 
Sharaf called the London conference the "right opportunity to 
highlight the challenges facing Yemen" and to form a 
partnership with donor nations to confront these challenges. 
In meetings with the Ambassador in late January, Deputy Prime 
Minister for Defense and Security Rashad al-Alimi and Deputy 
Foreign Minister Muhi al-Dhabbi both said they planned to 
make a case for Yemen's assistance needs at the London 
conference and expected those needs to be addressed at the 
follow-up conference in Riyadh in February. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶7.  (C) If the ceasefire between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia 
holds in the near-term, as appears increasingly likely, it 
could provide the increased pressure as well as the necessary 
excuse for President Saleh to cut his own deal with the 
rebels.  Left alone again to fend off the Houthis at a time 
of heightened attention on Yemen's multiple crises, the 
potential for hundreds of millions of Qatari and other donor 
dollars flooding into Yemen for Sa'ada reconstruction might 
provide an adequate incentive for Saleh to end the war and 
begin the peace process.  END COMMENT. 
 
¶8.  (U) Embassies Riyadh and Doha have cleared this cable. 
BRYAN