VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHYN #0137/01 0251424
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 251424Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY SANAA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3607
INFO RUEHZM/GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0285

C O N F I D E N T I A L SANAA 000137 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NEA FOR DAS TAMARA WITTES 
NEA/PI FOR TIM ANDREWS 
NEA/ARP FOR ANDREW MACDONALD 
INR FOR JOSHUA YAPHE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2020 
TAGS: PGOV YM
SUBJECT: MORE TALK, LESS ACTION: "NATIONAL DIALOGUE" 
PROCESS STALLED IN YEMEN 
 
REF: SANAA 14 
 
Classified By: DCM Angie Bryan for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary.  While President Saleh's original proposal 
for a National Dialogue has been canned by members of the 
Joint Meeting Parties (JMP), the opposition has proposed an 
alternative option, namely for a joint-led dialogue 
committee, which would ultimately lead to a genuine national 
consultative process with a mutually agreed upon agenda. 
Despite the ruling General People's Congress' initial 
rejection of the JMP's proposal, Saleh appears supportive of 
dialogue ) at least with all the international attention 
directed his way in the lead up to the London conference. 
The USG-funded National Democratic Institute (NDI) continues 
to play a major role in encouraging political participation 
and democratic reform in Yemen and deserves to have continued 
funding from the USG.  End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (C) President Saleh's proposal for a National Dialogue 
between the ruling General People's Congress (GPC) and the 
opposition Joint Meeting Parties (JMP) has gone up in flames 
amidst infighting between the two parties.  Proposed by 
President Saleh in late December (REFTEL), the twice-delayed 
meeting was to be held on January 30 and led by Shoura 
Council Chairman Abdulaziz Abdulghani.  As the invitation 
list grew to over 6000 political participants, the opposition 
denounced the initiative and promised to boycott an effort to 
clearly sideline them as but a few invitees among thousands. 
As an alternative to the failed National Dialogue event, the 
JMP has invited the GPC to join a smaller, jointly-led 
dialogue committee to plan a genuine national consultative 
process with a mutually agreed-upon agenda.  This version of 
the national dialogue would be much smaller in scope, 
involving 45 GPC and 45 JMP representatives, and mediated by 
former prime minister and longtime political advisor Dr. 
Abdulkarim al-Eryani.  In typical Yemeni style, the GPC 
initially rejected this proposal, insisting that the dialogue 
must take place under the auspices of the Shoura Council, and 
thereby prolonged the standoff between the two parties. 
 
¶3.  (C) Still, Saleh appears quietly amenable to the JMP's 
suggestion to form a joint national dialogue committee, 
supporting its establishment in a January 21 meeting of the 
GPC's General Council.  According to National Democratic 
Institute (NDI) Resident Director Heather Therrien, he is 
considering a proposal for an unofficial meeting between the 
GPC and JMP to start a conversation about such a joint 
dialogue.  (Comment: A joint meeting would presumably involve 
the Yemeni Socialist Party (YSP), a part of the opposition 
which has little to gain from a GPC-JMP joint dialogue, but 
much to lose if the issue of the continued detention of 
political prisoners, many of whom are YSP members, is not 
resolved.  End Comment.) 
 
¶4.  (C) NDI, a longtime supporter of the democratic process 
in Yemen, continues to play a major role in urging political 
players to participate in a joint dialogue committee in order 
to agree upon and prepare for a larger national meeting in a 
few months.  According to Les Campbell, NDI's Middle East and 
North Africa (MENA) Director, in addition to presidential 
concurrence, the joint dialogue committee has broad support 
across the government and within the opposition.  In January 
20-23 meetings with Campbell, Vice President and GPC 
Secretary General Abdurabu Mansour Hadi, Chairman of the 
Shoura Council Abdulghani, former Prime Minister and 
political advisor Eryani, Deputy Speaker of Parliament Himyar 
al-Ahmar, MP and defacto leader of the Hashid tribal 
confederation Hamid al-Ahmar, as well as leaders of the 
Islah, YSP, and al-Haq parties, all agreed in principle to 
support such a joint dialogue committee. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶5.  (C) On the advent of the London conference as well as a 
February GCC-led donor conference in Riyadh, Yemeni political 
players, including the President, may be more amenable to 
verbally agree on the concept of a joint national dialogue 
committee without having any real intention of following 
through on those agreements.  The President's explicit 
support for the conference and implicit support for patching 
up relations with the JMP may be a prelude to reconciliation 
with Southern opposition leaders and the Houthis and to 
confrontation with al-Qaeda ) all of which require 
opposition support one way or another.  Presidential support, 
 
however, whether implicit or explicit, contrasts sharply with 
the anti-JMP rhetoric that is permeating the ROYG and serving 
as a major obstacle to the ultimate success of an authentic 
national dialogue. 
 
¶6.  (C) NDI's longtime involvement in the process remains 
critical to government efforts to move forward.  Currently 
funded by the Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI), 
NDI's program is perhaps one of the single most effective 
USG-supported efforts to promote democracy in Yemen.  NDI's 
MENA Director Campbell appears ) to a certain extent ) to 
have the sought-after ear of the President, having developed 
a trusting relationship with Saleh over the years.  When it 
comes to contributing to the democratic reform and 
development process, post strongly recommends the 
continuation of USG support and funding for NDI in Yemen. 
End Comment. 
SECHE