VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHRH #0083 0171341
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 171341Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY RIYADH
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2320
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
INFO RUEHHH/OPEC COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS RIYADH 000083 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EEB/ESC DAS HENGEL, S/SCIEA GOLDWYN 
DEPT ALSO FOR EEB/ESC/IEC AND NEA/ARP 
DOE FOR PDAS ELKIND, ALSO HEGBURG, PERSON, HART 
PARIS FOR USOECD 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EPET ENRG PREL IEA IEF SA
SUBJECT: IEF SYG ON JAN 10 ENERGY EXPERT GROUP MEETING IN PARIS AND 
MARCH 29-31 CANCUN MINISTERIAL OF ENERGY MINISTERS 
 
Ref:  iefs.org.sa 
 
¶1. (SBU) On the margins of a January 12 presentation of the IEA 
World Energy Outlook at the International Energy Forum (IEF) 
Secretariat headquarters, Secretary General Noe van Hulst discussed 
the IEF High Level Steering Group (HLSG) meeting in Paris he 
attended January 10.  The HLSG met to review the report of the 
independent expert group it had convened.  Van Hulst said he thought 
the Paris meeting had "moved things in the right direction," and he 
expressed gratitude for the constructive remarks of U.S. 
representatives at the Paris meeting.  Assistant Minister of 
Petroleum Prince Abdulaziz separately expressed a similar 
assessment, and appreciation for U.S. assistance, to the 
Ambassador. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Introducing the IEA presentation, Van Hulst emphasized to 
attendees that the March 29-31 IEF ministerial in Cancun would be 
"very important."  According to the IEF SyG, 38 ministers have 
confirmed their participation, and he said he expects many more to 
do so, making the Cancun meeting the IEF's largest ever.  He told 
attendees it would consider how [1] to strengthen the 
producer-consumer dialogue and the IEFS in the years to come, and 
[2] the IEF and IEFS could contribute to limiting the type of energy 
market volatility seen in the past, especially last several years. 
He argued that these topics are linked.  Van Hulst briefly noted the 
existence of the independent Expert Group and that both it and the 
High Level Steering Group were discussing the two focus areas.  He 
said there would be another preparatory meeting in Riyadh February 
6-7, and he urged diplomats in attendance to ask their governments 
to nominate representatives for the meeting as soon as possible. 
(Note:  The Embassy recently received the same message via 
diplomatic note from MFA.) 
 
¶3. (SBU) IEA PRESENTATION:  The World Energy Outlook presentation 
(available online, ref a) by IEA Chief Economist Dr. Fatih Birol 
departed from typical energy briefings' usual focus on reference 
cases and projections to concentrate on climate change.  He argued 
at length in favor of the IEA's "450 Scenario" (named for its CO2 
ppm recommendation) which he said would limit global warming to 
around 2 degrees Celsius.  He also talked in some detail about the 
impact of U.S. shale gas production growth, which he said would have 
a significant and widely underestimated effect on overseas gas 
markets -- he argued that increasing U.S. gas production would 
create an abundance of available gas internationally "with 
far-reaching implications for pricing." 
 
SMITH