VZCZCXRO8006
PP RUEHSL
DE RUEHNY #0045/01 0261149
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P 261149Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY OSLO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8138
INFO RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 0235
RUEHNJ/AMEMBASSY NDJAMENA PRIORITY 0019
RHMFISS/AIC OBU NORFOLK VA PRIORITY
RUEPGCA/USEUCOM AIDES VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
RUEPGAA/US SURVEY DIV SHAPE BE PRIORITY
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 OSLO 000045 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/22/2020 
TAGS: PREL NATO MOPS PARM KNNP KCFE PGOV SENV AF NO
SUBJECT: EUR/RPM DIRECTOR DISCUSSES NATO, ARCTIC, AND 
AFGHANISTAN WITH NORWEGIAN OFFICIALS 
 
Classified By: DCM James T. Heg for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary:  On the margins of the January 14 NATO 
Strategic Concept Seminar EUR/RPM Director Bruce Turner, DCM, 
and PolOff conducted bilateral meetings January 13 to discuss 
Afghanistan, NATO, Russia, and the Arctic High North.  On 
Afghanistan, MFA and MoD officials described increasing 
Nordic Cooperation in Regional-Command (RC-North), 
recommended improved coordination between the civilian effort 
and ISAF, and asked for details on U.S. troop deployment in 
their Area of Operation.  On NATO's Strategic Concept 
deliberations, MoD Deputy Director of Security Policy Jan 
Olsen made the case for Norway's Core Areas Initiative (High 
North) to ensure NATO remains relevant to the public and 
capable of homeland defense, and outlined the GoN's views on 
strategic weapons and concern over sub-strategic weapons. 
MFA Director for Security Policy and North America Unni 
Klovstad noted a NATO focus on energy issues should be 
limited to infrastructure protection, and outlined Norway's 
hope for improved efficiency as an outcome of the NATO reform 
effort. 
 
¶2.  (C) On Russia, Olsen described a growing "convergence of 
Russian rhetoric and military capability," which had the 
potential for creating a "more interesting" situation with 
Russia as its pursues its ambitions in the Arctic High North. 
 MFA Russia Expert Anne Kjersti Karlsen contrasted Russia's 
continuing flights along Norway's coastline and portrayal of 
NATO as Russia's worst enemy with her judgment that Russia's 
true security focus was on China.  Klovstad cautioned against 
extensive NATO involvement in Arctic issues, saying the GoN 
wanted to avoid an escalation of tensions, but noted Norway's 
desire for NATO to monitor the situation.  Olsen noted that 
the frigate Fritdjof Nansen, part of the EU's ATALANTA 
effort, would complete its mission in the Gulf of Aden in 
early 2010 and would not be replaced, and that the GoN 
Hospital in Chad would also shut down in 2010.  Norwegian 
special forces likely will return to Afghanistan o/a March 
2011, following the end of the current deployment of New 
Zealand special forces.  End Summary. 
 
Afghanistan 
----------- 
 
¶3.  (C) Turner told Klovstad, Karlsen, and MFA North America 
Coordinator Morten Aasland that the United Nations Assistance 
Mission to Afghanistan (UNAMA) could not do everything and 
that there was a need for a Senior Civilian Coordinator for 
Afghanistan to coordinate PRT engagement.  Klovstad said that 
SRSG Kai Eide believed that ISAF needed to get better at 
civilian coordination.  Turner discussed the state of play in 
France and Germany in advance of the London Conference on 
Afghanistan, and said the U.S. still hoped that those nations 
would do more, although the domestic situation in Germany was 
complicated. 
 
¶4.  (C) MoD Deputy Director for Security Policy Jan Olsen 
briefed on increased Nordic cooperation in Afghanistan, 
driven in part by  resource implications and the benefits of 
sharing logistical costs.  He noted that Finland may looking 
to increase its boots on the ground, and Sweden was 
considering an increased presence at the Norwegian PRT in 
Meymaneh, Faryab Province.  Olsen wondered about the FRAGO 
received from NATO stating the two U.S. "brigades" would be 
arriving in RC-North, given that the COMISAF report had been 
quite clear that the focus of increased troops would be in 
the south and east.  He noted that Norway would likely extend 
its medevac helicopters in Afghanistan through the end of 
2011 and would need to explore cooperation with the U.S. if 
U.S. helicopters deploy in RC-North.  He added that in the 
period between Christmas and New Year, the Norwegian troops 
had engaged in ten "incidents," and that while previously 
German troops provided Quick Reaction Force support, they 
were now "always engaged" in Kunduz and unable to assist.  In 
response to a query from DCM, Oslen indicated that Norwegian 
special forces likely would return to Afghanistan o/a March 
2011, when the current deployment of New Zealand special 
forces is due to expire. 
 
Strategic and sub-Strategic Weapons and NATO 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (S) In response to a question on whether MoD and MFA 
 
OSLO 00000045  002 OF 003 
 
 
views differed on NATO tactical nuclear weapons in Europe, 
Olsen said the GoN is watching the U.S. Nuclear Posture 
Review closely and is committed to NATO's current policy 
until changes can be agreed upon by Allies.  He further noted 
that the GoN's goal is in line with President Obama's speech 
in Prague, but recognizes there is a process that must be 
followed.  Olsen suggested that any changes should wait until 
2011, but any reductions in the number of nuclear weapons in 
Europe must not undermine European security.  He concluded by 
noting that NATO's new nuclear doctrine had to grapple with 
the reality that Russia possessed 5,000 sub-strategic 
weapons, while "Europe" only had two hundred, which 
complicated efforts to negotiate a significant reduction in 
the Russian stockpile. 
 
NATO Reform 
----------- 
 
¶6.  (C) Klovstad asked what the U.S. expected out of the 
Strategic Concept update, noting that capabilities, Article 
5, Missile Defense, new security threats, and the 
Comprehensive Approach topped the GoN's list.  Turner asked 
if the GoN saw a role in increased consultations with 
partners that share our values in the spirit of Article 4, 
for example in dealing with cyber-security incidents. 
Klovstad responded that Norway was unclear on the 
applicability of Article 5 in a cyber-attack and that the GoN 
was looking for more clarity on what is meant by "future 
challenges."  The GoN was not sure if "rephrasing" new 
threats, such as energy issues, would be the correct path for 
NATO.  Karlsen chimed in that the GoN did not think NATO 
should duplicate responsibilities held by other 
organizations, and a definition for "energy security" needed 
to be developed.  Klovstad added that NATO's role on energy 
security thus far means infrastructure protection, and 
concluded by advocating for overall NATO reform, potentially 
including rethinking the consensus principle, for a more 
efficiently run organization.  Olsen noted that the Norwegian 
public perceived NATO as engaged in Afghanistan only, which 
pressed the GoN to focus on its Core Areas Initiative so that 
NATO would remain relevant to Norwegians.  He mentioned 
Norway's upcoming Cold Response Invitex exercise in February, 
indicating that SACEUR attendance would be very welcome. 
 
Russia and NATO 
--------------- 
 
¶7.  (C) Karlsen said that NATO's on-going efforts with Russia 
had to be at least in part about confidence building. 
Klovstad continued that we needed to wait until after the 
February Defense Ministerial to determine whether Russia 
really would engage more actively, adding that SYG Rasmussen 
had ambitions to move the relationship along, and had 
scheduled several meetings over the next few weeks.  arlsen 
said that Russia still considered NATO "is worst enemy," but 
the GoN did not feel threateed by Russia or the Zapd and 
Ladoga exercises, hich took place 20 kilometers from the 
Norwegian order.  When Turner brought up that Russia's 
revsed declaratory nuclear policy appeared to include 
regional crises, Karlsen responded that th GoN wanted to 
keep the NATO-Russia cooperation process moving regardless, 
but realizes that the U.S. and other allies "won't be patient 
forever."  In her view, she said, Russia security and 
military planning was very focused on China, with more than 
half of its resources in the East.  However, she added, 
Russian flights in and around Norwegian airspace had 
increased, and while not up to Cold War levels, did raise 
concern among GoN officials. 
 
¶8.  (C) Olsen noted that Russia currently had more active 
submarines and a more "declared and beefed-up military," and 
described the growing "convergence of Russian rhetoric and 
military capability," which could create a more "interesting" 
situation with Russia as its furthers its ambitions in the 
Arctic  High North.  Olsen mentioned that the GoN puts 
forward a work plan each year with Russia for military 
cooperation, and maybe half of what is proposed is actually 
accomplished.  When asked whether the GoN had given thought 
to a potential Russian demand for the flank regime to be 
removed from the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) 
Treaty, Olsen responded that the GoN would prefer to maintain 
the flank regime but would consider other arrangements if 
necessary. 
 
OSLO 00000045  003 OF 003 
 
 
 
NATO in the Arctic and Cooperation 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶9.  (C) Klovstad said that the GoN would like NATO to follow 
and be aware of developments in the Arctic High North in a 
way that would avoid provoking the Russians into tit-for-tat 
responses and escalation.  For example, NATO could play a 
role in exercises for search and rescue capabilities, 
including through the NATO-Russia Council.  She brought up 
the "Stoltenberg process," which calls for enhanced security 
cooperation with Iceland, Sweden and Finland while respecting 
each country's differing relationship with NATO.  In response 
to Turner's question on NATO Enlargement, she noted that 
Finland is closer than Sweden to a decision on joining the 
Alliance, adding if Finland chooses to join NATO, Sweden may 
be inspired to take a new look, although it would be a hard 
sell.  She also added that the EU and NATO do not know each 
other well enough as organizations, and suggested that the 
NATO SYG consult more regularly with EU counterparts.  She 
concluded that the EU is now in a different "mode" under the 
Lisbon treaty. 
 
Update on Other Deployments 
--------------------------- 
 
¶10.  (C) Olsen said that the Norwegian frigate Fritdjof 
Nansen, currently deployed as part of the EU ATALANTA 
operation, would return to Norway shortly, and the GoN had no 
further plans to deploy a frigate due to budgetary 
restraints.  He noted that staff officers instead would join 
a Swedish-flagged vessel scheduled to head to the Gulf of 
Aden in 2010.  He also mentioned that Norway would shut down 
its field hospital in Chad in 2010, noting that the Russians 
now were unlikely to replace the Norwegians as previously 
promised.  During a recent visit to Chad by Norway's 
relatively new Minister of Defense Grete Faremo, Olsen 
described how she had received a dressing down by the UN 
operations in Chad, which complained that Norway's hospital 
was so "fancy" that the Russians refused to set up a 
replacement hospital, as it would be perceived as inferior. 
He added that Faremo also got an ear-full from the UN about 
Norway's success in drilling for water in the hospital 
environs, given the scarcity of water generally and the 
potential for conflict as a result.  Olsen described Faremo 
as shocked by the UN responses to the Norwegian contribution. 
 
¶11.  (C) Comment:  The pending withdrawals of the Norwegian 
military hospital in Chad and the frigate from the Gulf of 
Aden will constitute a de facto scaling back of Norway's 
currently robust scale of global military deployments. 
Mention of the budget constraints preventing continued 
deployment of the Nansen highlights the overall inadequacy of 
the GoN's defense spending relative to its ambitions. 
WHITE