VZCZCXRO2186
RR RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHNM #0048/01 0192017
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 192017Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY NIAMEY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5578
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NIAMEY 000048 
 
DEPT FOR AF/W AND AF/RSA 
USAID FOR AFR/W 
ACCRA ALSO FOR USAID/WA 
PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM SOCI PHUM NG
SUBJECT:  Niger:  ECOWAS Mediator Proposes Road Map for Niger; 
Government and Opposition Respond 
 
Ref: a) Niamey 0029, b) 09 Niamey 1025, c) 09 Niamey 1005 
 
¶1. Summary:  On January 14, weeks after the pro-Government and the 
opposition delegations to the Inter-Nigerien Political Dialogue 
(INPD) submitted their positions (refs A and B), ECOWAS Mediator 
Abdusalami Abubakar presented his suggestions for a way out of 
Niger's political crisis.  In response, Niger's main opposition 
group, the Coordination of Forces for Democracy and the Republic 
(CFDR), issued a statement accusing the Government of Niger (GON) of 
manipulating the mediator and delaying talks in order to undermine 
the negotiations.  The GON rejected the CFDR's accusations as 
groundless.  End summary. 
 
ECOWAS Mediator Proposes Transitional Government 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
¶2. On January 14, ECOWAS Mediator retired General and former 
Nigerian Head of State Abdusalami Abubakar met separately with INPD 
protagonists and provided them with a memorandum detailing his 
conclusions and suggestions for a way forward.  He requested that 
each delegation forward written responses to him by January 26.  The 
Mediator adjourned the INPD until February 3. (Note:  Abubakar was 
summoned to Sudan to help mediate the conflict in Darfur. End note.) 
 The Mediators' proposal is as follows: 
 
(Begin text) 
 
-- The Dialogue shall establish an Interim National Reconciliation 
Government (INRG) or a National Reconciliation Government (NRG) for 
a period to be determined by the Dialogue; 
 
-- Consensus provisions shall be adopted in order to govern during 
the period; 
 
-- His Excellency President Mamadou Tandja shall remain in office 
until the end of the period in compliance with this Agreement; 
 
-- The Government shall be led by a technocrat appointed by 
consensus.  The Government shall comprise representatives selected 
by the Dialogue; 
 
-- The Government shall ensure daily operation of State affairs in 
compliance with this Agreement; 
 
-- The National Council for Political Dialogue shall be reinstated 
and remain in continuous consultation with the National Assembly. 
The Council shall make recommendations to the Government concerning 
a schedule for elections; 
 
-- The Government shall be responsible for setting up a schedule for 
elections, the effective completion of which shall mean the end of 
the Interim National Reconciliation Government.  These processes 
shall be conducted under the supervision of an Independent National 
Electoral Commission created by consensus; 
 
-- Within the framework of the reconciliation, the National Assembly 
shall be increased to 160 members in order to ensure the CFDR's 
representation; and 
 
-- The amnesty granted by the government for political violations 
committed before the Dialogue shall remain valid after the 
Dialogue. 
 
(End text) 
 
CFDR Slams Government for Delays, Expresses Skepticism 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
¶3. On January 17, the CFDR issued a statement in response to the 
ECOWAS-proposed road map and the suspension of the INPD.  The CFDR 
accused the GON of using a variety of delaying tactics that forced 
the Mediator to allow "repeated suspensions and restricted 
meetings."  The CFDR stated that it conceded to the creation of a 
consensus and inclusive transitional government that would draft a 
new constitution and organize new elections.  According to the CFDR, 
President Tandja's New Year's greetings of state institutions and 
the diplomatic corps clearly showed that "President Tandja and his 
zealots had never hidden their hostility to dialogue and their 
intention to give no chance to its success." 
 
¶4. The CFDR went on to say that it would convey its proposals as 
requested by the Mediator, but asked Nigeriens to have "no illusions 
as to the outcome of this Dialogue, which, in truth, has never taken 
place" and called on supporters of democracy to "prepare for a 
resolute and determined struggle in order to defeat President 
Tandja's projects..."  The CFDR further stated that "...in addition 
to being solely responsible for engaging the country in a crisis, 
President Tandja, by his stubbornness, autism, and carelessness for 
 
NIAMEY 00000048  002 OF 002 
 
 
the country's peace and stability, is the only responsible for the 
failure of the Dialogue wished by the international community and 
supported by the majority of Nigeriens." 
 
GON Rejects Opposition's Claims as Groundless 
--------------------------------------------- 
¶5. January 17, the GON via the Minister of Communication and 
Government Spokesperson Moctar Kassoum declared the opposition's 
statement as "untimely and irresponsible." Kassoum stated, "One 
cannot put words into the Government's mouth while it had not yet 
responded to the road map that the Mediator proposed to the two 
parties." According to him, the CFDR's statement reveals the 
opposition's niche for "subversion, denouncement, and perfidy, often 
in complicity with certain foreign forces." The Minister assured 
that "the Government will make every effort so the Inter-Nigerien 
Dialogue can achieve reasonable results.  Likewise, democracy will 
be protected and sustained...The Government is analyzing the 
Mediator's proposals for a way out of the crisis, and will respond 
responsibly, that is, to preserve the nation's and the population's 
interests."  He further stated that "nothing will be done outside 
the framework of the Sixth Republic." 
 
Comment 
------- 
¶6. It appears that the Mediator's proposal regarding the expansion 
of National Assembly membership was not derived from the proposals 
of the two delegations (refs A and B). In fact, the ECOWAS Mediator 
met individually with President Tandja on January 11 to seek his 
approval of the proposals made to both parties.  According to 
Embassy contacts, President Tandja told the Mediator that he would 
not concede anything regarding the Sixth Republic and deriving 
institutions - a position reiterated by the GON Spokesperson on 
January 17.  Instead, President Tandja offered to expand the 
National Assembly, "allotting" 47 seats to the opposition. 
 
¶7. Many opposition members believe that the above referenced offer 
further proves that President Tandja does not take negotiations 
seriously and that he is using such maneuvers to delay further 
international sanctions while pursuing his plans to consolidate his 
power.  Overall, the Mediator's proposed road map appears to pose a 
complex exercise designed to result in the protagonists' proposals 
meeting halfway. 
 
WHITAKER