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OO RUEHBC RUEHBZ RUEHDH RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHKUK RUEHMA RUEHMR
RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHNJ #0065/01 0301612
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 301612Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY NDJAMENA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7649
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NDJAMENA 000065 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/C 
STATE FOR S/USSES 
OSD FOR DASD HUDDLESTON 
NSC FOR GAVIN 
LONDON FOR POL - LORD 
PARIS FOR POL - BAIN AND KANEDA 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR AU 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM PREF SU LY UN EU CD
SUBJECT: CHAD ELECTION PROCESS PUSHES ON:  OPERATING BUDGET 
AND PERMANENT BOARD OF ELECTIONS SET 
 
REF: NDJAMENA 16 
 
----------- 
SUMMARY 
AND COMMENT 
----------- 
 
¶1.  (SBU)  The Chadian electoral process, aimed at national 
legislative and municipal elections in Nov-Dec 2010, 
continues to roll forward, with the key steps of establishing 
a Permanent Board of Elections (BPE) and an electoral budget 
of USD 49 million taken by the government on Jan 27.  Most of 
Chad's 120-some political parties have now aligned themselves 
with either the ruling Patriotic Salvation Movement (MPS) or 
the opposition Coalition for the Defense of the Constitution 
(CPDC).  The informal International Working Group (IWC) of 
democratic donors continues to engage with the Independent 
Electoral Commission (CENI), the August 13 Accord Comite de 
Suivi (CS), and the new PBE to help these structures overcome 
obstacles on the road to credible elections later this year. 
Bipartisan commissions composed of political party reps to 
manage elections at the regional and departmental levels are 
80 per cent complete, and are due to be finalized February 8. 
 One important next step is passage of a package of 
legislative measures necessary to the elections.  Another is 
the completion of the electoral census, which will 
established voter rolls, envisioned for March-May. 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  This is still an ambitious enterprise, but the 
steady progress of Chad's fledgling "electoral machinery" 
continues, with considerable help from friends in the 
democratic donor community, in the knowledge that President 
Deby expects results along the lines he outlined last 
December.  China is a recent addition to those offering to 
help Chad with its electoral process.  END SUMMARY AND 
COMMENT. 
 
--------------- 
BPE ESTABLISHED 
--------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  The IWG had an opportunity January 28 to interact 
briefly with the just-named Director General and Deputy 
Director General of Chad's first Permanent Board of 
Elections.  The Director, Ahmet al-Hisene, a northern Muslim 
with a public health background, appeared modest and 
professional if overwhelmed at the prospect of having to play 
a neutral role in Chad's highly-charged environment. 
Al-Hisene acknowledged his lack of experience and said he 
would rely on his Deputy, Oudjan, a Christian southerner and 
demographer with Chad's Census Bureau, who has been a 
respected partner of the U.S. in the 2009 demographic census. 
 Al-Hisene and Oudjan said that they had met with President 
Deby January 17, and that he had urged them to play 
nonpartisan roles in keeping with their positions.  Both 
stressed that their first task would be recruiting personnel. 
 
------------------------- 
ELECTORAL BUDGET DRAWN UP 
------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  A national budget for elections has been prepared, 
based on the following broad outlines: 
 
Electoral census within Chad--------USD 16,570,300. 
Electoral census of diaspora--------USD  1,260,233. 
Legislative electoral budget--------USD 21,041,683. 
Local electoral budget--------------USD  2,447,433. 
CENI operating budget---------------USD  7,097,277. 
Start-up of BPE---------------------USD    487,783. 
 
TOTAL: USD 48,904,710. 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  Embassies have been presented with far more 
detailed break-outs of each category, down to photocopying 
costs.  When offering the budget to IWG Ambassadors, CENI 
Chairman Gami specified that the high cost for legislative 
 
NDJAMENA 00000065  002 OF 003 
 
 
elections as compared with local ones was explained by the 
fact that local elections will only take place for those 
local officials with departmental or regional 
responsibilities.  The technicalities of staging Chad's 
first-ever local elections absent all infrastructure to 
convert from an appointed to an elected system of 
administration has proven so daunting that the local process 
is now scheduled to take place in stages.  Some local 
elections will accompany the presidential contest in 2011 and 
others may take place later (NFI).  The CENI operating budget 
is large because it contains funding for all of the regional 
and departmental CENIs that are currently being stood up by 
the process of "demembrements."  The budget for counting 
Chad's diaspora population will allow this group to vote in 
presidential elections but not legislative ones. 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  In preparation for an eventual pledging session 
with the GoC, the IWG has spoken internally about possible 
electoral assistance funds.  Thus far, France is still in the 
midst of deliberations on the size of its contribution.  The 
EU has E1.5 million at work in various projects, and another 
E3 million on the way later this spring.  UNDP currently has 
USD 1 million in its Trust Fund.  Germany and Switzerland 
have promised E300,000 and E400,000 each.  The OIF will not 
contribute financially, but plans to provide technical 
assistance in a variety of areas including encouraging 
women's suffrage; providing electoral observers; helping with 
resolution of electoral disputes; and helping with training 
of election workers.  Little of the  financial contributions 
of our partners, and none of our own likely grant of around 
USD 5 million, will go directly to the Chadian government to 
offset costs projected for the electoral process listed in 
para 4 above. 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  China has publicly announced that it has a sum of 
USD 250,000 available to assist the CENI.  Chinese diplomats 
have told us that their nation is an enthusiastic proponent 
of better governance in Chad, that Beijing doubts the 
efficacy of democracy here, that therefore it is not 
persuaded that elections will necessarily lead to better 
governance, but that orderly elections are clearly consistent 
with stability -- wherefore the Chinese desire to help the 
CENI. 
 
-------- 
SPARRING 
-------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU)  Several IWG meetings with Chadian interlocutors on 
electoral themes this month focused on a manifesto issued 
January 26 by some members of the CPDC, who castigated the 
national CENI for its supposed pro-MPS bias in assigning 
political party reps to seats on regional and departmental 
electoral commissions (seven persons are to serve on regional 
CENIs, and six on departmental CENIs, vice 31 on the national 
CENI).  The manifesto is currently preventing decisions on 
membership for N'Djamena's municipal CENI, but 80 per cent of 
regional and departmental CENIs have apparently been 
established without significant disputes.  The deadline for 
the nationwide process of "demembrements" to be completed is 
February 8. 
 
¶9.  (SBU)  CPDC elder statesman Lol Mahamat Choua, reasoning 
with his coalition partners in front of international 
witnesses January 27, called on each of the two coalitions 
that have taken shape in recent months to resolve internal 
differences internally, and not to break ranks with political 
brethren publicly, so as to try to encourage continued 
cohesion according to a "manageable two-party-like 
arrangement" in very fractious circumstances.  The proposal 
was accepted, with Lol's more disputatious coalition partners 
making clear -- at his urging -- that their stated 
dissatisfaction with the ruling party should not be seen as 
constituting rejection of eventual national CENI decisions on 
membership of the N'Djamena municipal CENI. 
 
¶10.  (SBU)  The international community responded to the 
 
NDJAMENA 00000065  003 OF 003 
 
 
debate over demembrements by urging better coordination 
between the CENI and CS, and by advising the head of the CENI 
that it was incumbent on him and on his body to act in a 
manner that could not be read as partisan. 
 
-------------- 
TWO COALITIONS 
-------------- 
 
¶11.  (SBU)  That all but 45 of Chad's 120-some political 
parties have already aligned themselves with either the 
ruling MPS or the opposition coalition CPDC strikes us as 
something of a victory in itself:  the credibility of the 
upcoming elections will depend to an extent on the existence 
of a credible opposition.  The 45 outlyer parties consist 
mainly of those who refused to sign the August 2007 Accords 
on government-opposition reconciliation, or those that have 
formed since the beginning of this year in the hope that 
becoming a party will lead to receipt of government or 
international financial aid.  The international community is 
strongly of the view that political party development in Chad 
needs to include efforts to reduce the number of splinter 
parties by encouraging compromise and formation of blocs. 
 
-------------- 
ON THE HORIZON 
-------------- 
 
¶12.  (SBU)  In the coming weeks, a package of revisions to 
Chad's existing electoral laws and statutes will have to be 
considered and passed by the National Assembly if elections 
are to move forward according to the agreed timetable.  The 
package (essentially the same as a series of recommendations 
put together by the IWG in December) was delivered by the CS 
-- which has a watchdog role over major decisions of the CENI 
-- to the National Assembly January 27.  Assuming that 
passage of the technical revisions can be accomplished 
without undue delay, the next major challenge in Chad's year 
of projected electoral milestones will be conducting the 
electoral census to establish voting rosters. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶13.  (SBU)  This is still an ambitious enterprise, but the 
steady progress of Chad's fledgling "electoral machinery" 
continues, with considerable help from friends in the 
democratic donor community, in the knowledge that President 
Deby expects results along the lines he outlined last 
December.  The fractiousness of the opposition remains a 
feature of the political landscape here. 
 
¶14.  (U) Minimize considered. 
NIGRO