VZCZCXRO6585
RR RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHNR #0085/01 0250830
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 250830Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0496
INFO GENEVA IO MISSIONS COLLECTIVE
SOMALIA COLLECTIVE
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS 0008

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NAIROBI 000085 
 
SIPDIS 
DEPARTMENT PASS TO PRM/AF JANET DEUTSCH 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 2010/01/26 
TAGS: PREF PREL KE SO ET YM DJ
SUBJECT: No Consensus On Somali Outflows to Kenya 
 
REF: 10 ROME UN 01; 10 NAIROBI 56; 09SECSTATE132604; 09NAIROBI 2361 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Earl Zimmerman, Refugee Coordinator, DOS, POL; REASON: 
1.4(D) 
 
¶1.      (C)  Summary:  Increased conflict and the disruption of 
humanitarian assistance in Somalia are expected to increase 
outflows of Somalia refugees to Kenya.  There is no agreement among 
UN agencies on the number of additional Somalis that could  seek to 
enter Kenya over the next three months as estimates range from 
WFP's "worst case" scenario of 150,000 to UNHCR's " most likely" 
scenario of 12,000.  UNHCR has reportedly received authorization 
from the Garissa County Council to expand the Ifo camp, but has yet 
to secure funding for the expansion.  UNHCR discussions with the 
GOK on a fourth Dadaab camp remain stalled.  UNHCR and WFP will 
conduct a contingency planning meeting in Nairobi on February 3-5 
during which we expect a planning number for outflows will be 
agreed upon.  End Summary 
 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
Food and Conflict to Swell Refugee Flows Into Kenya 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
 
 
¶2.      (SBU)  UNHCR reported that 55,658 Somali refugees were 
registered in the Dadaab camps in 2009 with 21,621 (or 39 percent) 
of the year's total arriving in the January to March time period. 
In the first eleven days of January 2010, UNHCR reported only 976 
new Somali refugee arrivals registering  in Dadaab - well below 
last year's arrival rate of almost 2,000 new arrivals per week. 
UNHCR believes that some of the decreased flows are because single 
males are reportedly being prevented by al Shabaab forces in 
Somalia from crossing the border into Kenya.  UNHCR-Kenya also 
believes the deployment of additional Kenyan security forces to the 
border area and detention of single males who cross into Kenya by 
Kenyan security forces are also restricting the flow of refugees. 
(Note: UNHCR reports it has regular access to Somali male asylum 
seekers detained by Kenya security forces. End Note).  Some areas 
of south-central Somalia have experienced good rains and are 
starting to harvest crops, thus diminishing the numbers of those 
fleeing Somalia due to drought and failed corps, at least in the 
short-term. 
 
 
 
¶3.      (SBU)  Despite fewer new Somali refugee registrations in 
Dadaab than last year, UN agencies and others (Reftel C) fear the 
disruption of humanitarian assistance and increased conflict in 
Somalia could swell Somali refugee flows over the next few months. 
WFP had been providing food assistance to almost half (3.8 million) 
of the estimated Somali population of 7.5 million.  On January 1, 
2010, however, WFP suspended food deliveries to an estimated 
900,000 Somalis (22 per cent of the estimated 3.8 million Somalis 
receiving food assistance in Somalia targeted by WFP under its 
emergency operations) due to deteriorating security conditions and 
al Shabaab prohibitions on WFP food distribution programs in areas 
it controls.  WFP believes those Somalis who cannot rely on the 
current crop harvest will exhaust their food stocks within a few 
weeks following the cessation of food deliveries leaving no choice 
but for them to migrate in search of food.  WFP is currently 
working with an unofficial figure of 150,000 Somalis who could 
leave Somalia due to food disruption, but does not want to commit 
to a more concrete estimate until the contingency planning meeting 
scheduled for the first week of February (see paragraph 7). 
 
 
 
¶4.      (C)  Sporadic fighting continues in Mogadishu and  in 
south-central Somalia - areas where most Somalis fleeing into Kenya 
originate.  UNHCR reports  that 1.5 million Somalis are internally 
displaced (approximately 20 percent of the estimated 7.5 million 
Somalis in Somalia) with about 1.0 million of them displaced due to 
fighting in Mogadishu.  UNHCR estimates that 650,000-700,000 
displaced Somalis are sheltering in internally displaced camps in 
the Afgooye corridor outside Mogadishu with another 400,000 Somalis 
sheltering in pockets throughout south central Somalia and with 
Puntland and Somaliland hosting approximately 250,000 and 60,000 
displaced Somalis, respectively.  WFP reports it continues to try 
to provide food to approximately 500,000 Somalis in the Afgooye 
corridor, but it has discontinued food distributions to the 30,000 
 
NAIROBI 00000085  002 OF 003 
 
 
displaced Somalis in the Afmadow area outside Kismayo.  The GOK 
reports that its much-postponed offensive in the southern Somali 
region of Juba (Reftel B and previous) now has been pushed back to 
March.  While the GOK continues to reevaluate the offensive in 
light of logistical problems and international criticism of the 
plan, GOK military officials appear intent on continuing with it. 
The humanitarian assistance community remains concerned that any 
increase in military activity in southern Juba will only increase 
the number of Somalis seeking refuge in Kenya, especially as 
fighting may further displace the estimated 30,000 Somalis already 
displaced in Afmadow. 
 
 
 
----------------------------------------- 
 
No Consensus on Outflow Projections 
 
---------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶5.      (SBU)  While UN agencies are aware of growing pressures on 
Somalis to move (Reftel C), there is no agreement among 
humanitarian agencies on the scale of the possible increased 
outflows.  UNHCR-Kenya has planned for between 60,000 - 80,000 
Somalis seeking refuge in Dadaab in 2010 (roughly the same as 
arrived in 2009).  UNHCR-Kenya speculates, however, that if 
violence increases and food aid is disrupted, as many as 100,000 
Somalis above the planned flow could seek entry into Kenya. 
UNHCR-Somalia, in its "worst case" scenario predicts that  up to 
480,000 Somalis could be displaced over the next three months due 
to violence and food aid disruptions (120,000 due to food 
insecurity and 360,000 because of increased violence) with 39,000 
of the displaced seeking entry to Kenya.  In its  "most-likely" 
scenario, however, UNHCR-Somalia estimates 120,000 Somalis will be 
displaced over the next three months (30,000 displaced because of 
food aid disruptions and 90,000 displaced because of violence) with 
only 12,000 Somalis above the planned refugee flow seeking entry to 
Kenya. 
 
 
 
¶6.      (C)  In October, WFP-Somalia projected as many as 160,000 
Somalis could seek to leave Somalia within a few months of food aid 
being discontinued, with the majority of those expected to enter 
Kenya (Reftel D).  Since October, however, WFP reports that because 
of plentiful rains and an expected  good harvest in January and 
February many fewer Somalis then previously feared may be forced to 
leave Somalia.  A recent WFP-Kenya 'worst-case" scenario (Reftel A) 
predicts that up to 140,000 Somalis may leave Somalia for Kenya 
within the next few months due to disruptions in food deliveries. 
NGOs have also reported their own assessments of the number of 
possible refugee outflows to Kenya.  The International Rescue 
Committee, for example, is planning for up to 10,000 additional 
beneficiaries in the next three months for its activities in 
Hagadera camp and MSF (Medicins San Frontieres) estimates 20,000 
Somalis above "normal" could enter Kenya due to food aid 
disruptions.  Save the Children - UK in Dadaab reports that they 
are basing their contingency plans for possible increased outflows 
on WFP's report of 9,800 households on the Kenya-Somali border 
(approximately 60,000 Somalis) who, with the suspension of food 
aid, could find it easier to enter Kenya than travel further north 
into Somalia in search of food. (Note: WFP estimates that the 
maximum population of Somalis living along the Kenya border 
affected by its suspension of food aid is between 125,000 - 
150,000. End Note).  The difficulty in estimating outflows is 
highlighted by the fact that UNHCR is waiting for WFP to provide 
the number of Somalis affected by food disruptions, while WFP is 
waiting for UNHCR to assess how many Somalis in al Shabaab areas 
are likely to move to areas where they could access food. 
 
 
 
------------------------------------ 
 
The Need for Contingency Planning 
 
------------------------------------ 
 
 
 
¶7.      (SBU)  Neither UNHCR-Kenya nor UNHCR-Somalia have adequate 
contingency plans or stocks in place should there be a significant 
increase in  refugee movements over the next three months.  Both 
 
NAIROBI 00000085  003 OF 003 
 
 
offices point to a scheduled February 3- 5 contingency planning 
meeting in Nairobi  (with WFP participating on February 3 only) 
when it is expected that agreement will be reached on a planning 
figure for above "normal" outflows and the additional resources 
needed to accommodate them.  WFP currently has a four month food 
buffer in Dadaab that could be drawn upon to feed an increased flow 
of refugees, but cautions it would need to replace the food quickly 
in order to feed a larger population in Dadaab.  WFP has said it 
has some flexibility to respond to outflows by drawing down food 
stocks from their Kenya drought operations or by reducing ration 
levels should the need arise. 
 
 
 
¶8.      (SBU)  UNHCR-Kenya has received authorization from the 
Garissa County Council (GCC) to expand the severely overcrowded Ifo 
camp.  UNHCR has asked the GCC to send an official as soon as 
possible to begin demarcating the expanded camp boundaries, but 
doesn't have the funding in its current budget to prepare the land 
for habitation or relocate refugees from the Ifo camp to the 
expanded area.  UNHCR-Kenya estimates that the expanded area may 
accommodate between 60,000-80,000 refuges, and it expects to 
resettle 20,000 refugees from the current Ifo camp with the rest of 
the area reserved for new arrivals and some small relocations from 
the Dagahaley camp.  UNHCR has only budgeted for the existing camps 
and is unsure how it will fund the expansion, but speculates it 
will receive an allocation from the UNHCR Reserve Fund or will 
launch an appeal once the cost of the expansion is known (UNHCR 
will develop a budget for the expansion after the land is 
demarcated). 
 
 
 
¶9.      (SBU)  UNHCR-Kenya has consistently said obtaining a fourth 
camp remains essential to accommodating refugees in Dadaab, but 
confirms that its negotiations with the GOK for the fourth camp has 
stalled.  UNHCR reports the total number of refugees in Dadaab to 
be about 266,000 vice the 300,000+ it had reported earlier in the 
year following a just-completed re-verification exercise (a census 
of the camp population).  UNHCR attributes the decrease in the camp 
population to the relocation of 13,000 Somali refugees to Kakuma 
camp in north west Kenya earlier in 2009 and speculates that the 
"missing" refugees either returned to Somalia or left the camps for 
Nairobi.  Even with the lower number of refugees in the camps and 
the extension of Ifo, UNHCR says it still requires a fourth camp in 
Dadaab to accommodate the "normal" outflow of refugees.  If 
increased outflows were to occur over the next few months, UNHCR 
plans to locate the new arrivals to the Ifo expansion area and 
continue pressing for the fourth camp to accommodate the projected 
"normal" flow of 60,000 - 80,000 refugees expected in 2010. As part 
of the contingency planning exercise, UNHCR will include a review 
of its political strategy with the GOK to obtain the fourth camp 
and preserve asylum space for Somali asylum seekers. 
RANNEBERGER