VZCZCXRO5229
PP RUEHIK
DE RUEHMZ #0016/01 0221304
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 221304Z JAN 10
FM AMCONSUL MUNICH
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5027
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE
RUCNMEU/EU INTEREST COLLECTIVE
RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MUNICH 000016 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL GM
SUBJECT:  BAVARIA/GERMAN POLITICS: CSU STRUGGLES TO REGAIN ITS 
FOOTING 
 
MUNICH 00000016  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1.  (SBU) A sobering opinion poll has given the Bavarian Christian 
Social Union (CSU) only 41 percent, a clear sign that the party's 
crisis continues, although at 41 percent the CSU was still twice as 
popular as any other party in Bavaria.  Minister President Seehofer 
remains optimistic about the CSU's future.  Predictions that the 
wounded CSU lion would turn on itself in recent party caucuses 
proved wrong.  Fortunately, the CSU has no major elections before 
2013, which gives CSU leaders a unique opportunity to regain their 
credibility and rebuild confidence.  Many party faithful still place 
their hopes for the future on Defense Minister Karl-Theodor zu 
Guttenberg, whose star power continues despite serious challenges 
related to Afghanistan.  End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  Bavarian Minister President and CSU chairman Horst 
Seehofer told CG Tribble at Seehofer's January 15 New Year's 
reception that despite negative polls, which currently see the CSU 
at 41 percent, he remained optimistic.  While the past year had been 
extremely difficult, especially due to the ongoing BayernLB bank 
disaster, the CSU was still in far better shape than any other 
Bavarian political party, none of which comes even close to 20 
percent.  After the Kreuth meetings of the Bundestag and then 
Landtag CSU caucuses, there were no major personnel changes, as had 
been rumored, and the party remained focused on strengthening its 
position in Bavaria.  Seehofer was afraid, however, that the 
time-delayed effects of the economic crisis would strike Bavarians 
in 2010 and he emphasized that international cooperation to restore 
economic growth was a prerequisite for success. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) There were no real fireworks considering what was on the 
agendas at the two traditional New Year CSU Caucus meetings at Bad 
Kreuth.  The 45 CSU Bundestag members met from January 6-8.  Feeling 
like their backs are against the wall and looking for scapegoats, 
CSU politicians seem more inclined than ever not to fight their 
political opponents but rather attack their own coalition partners, 
mainly the FDP.  The CSU was angry about the refusal of FM 
Westerwelle to support Erika Steinbach, a CDU Bundestag member and 
President of the Federation of Expellees (Germans expelled from 
Poland after WWII), in her bid to get a seat on the board of the 
Museum of the Foundation on Expulsion.  Then, after Westerwelle 
promised Turkey that EU accession negotiations would proceed as 
planned, CSU Secretary General Dobrindt attacked Westerwelle's 
 "secret diplomacy with countries such as Turkey and Poland" in no 
uncertain terms.  Complaints about Chancellor Merkel's (CDU) alleged 
leadership deficiencies rounded out the agenda.  The most noteworthy 
event was the CSU's backing away from its previous call for speedy 
tax relief measures, now deemed "unrealistic." 
 
¶4.  (SBU) The ten-billion Euro BayernLB disaster and the emerging 
four-billion Euro Hypo Alpe Adria scandal overshadowed the agenda of 
the 92 CSU Landtag deputies, who followed the federal politicians in 
Kreuth January 12-14.  Media was wrong to have predicted that 
Environment Minister Markus Soeder would have enough support to lead 
a successful putsch against Landtag caucus leader Georg Schmid, tied 
to the BayernLB bank scandal; he did not.  In the end, the Landtag 
members left Kreuth in ostentatious good harmony.  Their 
self-confidence was comfortably boosted by the surprising fact that 
despite the overall disheartening poll result, the same poll 
revealed that a majority of 51 percent of the people continued to 
believe that the CSU was best able to mind Bavarian interests and an 
even more comfortable 64 percent believed that the CSU remained the 
party with the greatest competence in economic matters. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) The positive aspects of the poll result were even more 
surprising in view of the fact that media had run a series of 
scathing reports concluding that Bavarian voters both in the city 
and in the countryside had lost faith in the home team after decades 
when the CSU was seen as the only party that could identify Bavarian 
interests and supposedly take care of them.  With the BayernLB 
disaster compounding problems, the financial crisis has hit Bavaria 
even harder than other German states, and many former CSU leaders, 
such as Edmund Stoiber and Erwin Huber, have lost much of their 
reputation as visionary and progressive politicians because of the 
bank. 
 
COMMENT 
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¶6.  (SBU) With no Landtag election until 2013, there is plenty of 
time for the party to engineer a rise from the ashes.  Rank and file 
CSUers need to overcome party despondency and rebuild public 
confidence.  In private, strategists from the CSU headquarters admit 
that party solidarity is fading, compounded by an ebbing trend of 
the once-large "people's" parties.  Smaller parties like the FDP, 
and in Bavaria the Freie Waehler (Independents), are waxing 
 
MUNICH 00000016  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
stronger.  The CSU lost more votes in the 2009 Bundestag elections 
than the CDU in other parts of Germany, and it is by far the 
smallest of the three coalition partners in Berlin.  MP Seehofer 
continues to create some of his own problems, too, with rash changes 
of heart, populist statements, and attacks on the coalition partner 
that created dissention within the party.  Longer term, many of the 
CSU rank-and-file believe that Defense Minister Karl-Theodor zu 
Guttenberg has the best potential to become their future leader if 
he wants it.  For example, at a public meeting on January 18 at the 
Bavarian office in Berlin, Bavarian Minister of State Emilia Mueller 
warmly praised him and singled him out among politicians because he 
"calls things by their true names."  We agree that his signature 
plain speaking, combined with his stage presence and intellect, seem 
to predestine him for CSU leadership if he wants it and possibly 
even greater prizes for himself on the national stage. 
 
¶8.  (U) Consulate General Munich coordinated this report with 
Embassy Berlin 
 
TRIBBLE