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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MAPUTO 000049 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/28/2019 
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM MZ
SUBJECT: RENAMO PARTY LEADER DHLAKAMA ASSESSES ELECTION 
RESULTS 
 
REF: 09 MAPUTO 408 
 
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Todd Chapman for reasons 1.4 (b+d) 
 
¶1.  (C)  SUMMARY:  The Charge met with traditional opposition 
party RENAMO President Afonso Dhlakama recently to get a 
readout on his views of the October 28 elections and future 
plans following RENAMO's biggest-ever electoral loss. 
Dhlakama confirmed that his party will not take up arms as 
rumored, but remains concerned that Mozambique is slipping 
towards a Zimbabwean model of single-party rule.  Dhlakama 
noted several examples of elections malfeasance without 
providing substantive proof.  Turning to the future of 
RENAMO, Dhlakama stated that his party will remain a national 
fixture and attempt to revise the election law.  Contrary to 
what most political observers believe, Dhlakama asserted that 
FRELIMO continues to control President Guebuza, and in turn 
the organs of the state continue to control FRELIMO.  (Note: 
Most insiders believe that Guebuza increasingly controls the 
decision making of FRELIMO which in turn has complete control 
over the state.  End Note)  Commenting on Daviz Simango's MDM 
party, Dhlakama discounted its influence on the national 
level, describing it as a movement rather than a party, and 
opining that Simango may return to RENAMO.  Simango denies 
that he will ever return to RENAMO.  Dhlakama's analysis of 
his party's worst loss yet in the National Assembly (AR) and 
his views of the political scene in Mozambique confirm that 
he is increasingly out of touch and a significant reason why 
multi-party democracy is withering in Mozambique.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
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RENAMO WILL NOT TAKE UP ARMS AGAIN 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C)  In a recent meeting with traditional opposition 
RENAMO party President Afonso Dhlakama in Nampula, the Charge 
discussed the electoral process, current developments within 
the party, the political environment, and RENAMO's political 
future.  Dhlakama began by repeating several times that, 
despite an unfair and tainted election, RENAMO had no 
intention to take up arms and return to violence as was 
rumored in the press, stating that such plans would undermine 
political and civil stability.  Dhlakama explained that 
RENAMO's objective was to assure that Mozambique remains a 
multi-party democracy and avoids becoming the next Zimbabwe. 
He said that RENAMO could not sit by and watch the progress 
since 1992 towards multi-party democracy be erased, and would 
demonstrate in peaceful ways against the increasing dominance 
of FRELIMO.  Paradoxically, Dhlakama called on RENAMO Members 
of Parliament not to take their parliamentary seats in 
protest of the election.  (Note: Such a move would only 
increase the 75 percent majority FRELIMO already enjoys, 
increasing FRELIMO's already strong grip on legislative 
power.  Most RENAMO parliamentarians are likely to take their 
seats eventually, as a National Assembly (AR) position comes 
with a salary in excess of $30,000, a luxury automobile, 
housing allowance, and other benefits.  Also, for each vacant 
seat RENAMO would stand to lose nearly $2,000 in separate 
fees per parliamentarian paid directly to the party by the 
state. End Note) 
----------------------------------- 
ELECTIONS MALFEASANCE HARD TO PROVE 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (C)  Dhlakama questioned whether the United States could 
be satisfied with and accept the results of the recent 
national election.  The Charge responded that USG concerns 
about the electoral process were well known and well 
publicized.  Looking back on the October 28 results in which 
RENAMO lost an unprecedented 31 seats in the AR giving more 
than enough seats for a FRELIMO super-majority, Dhlakama 
provided several unsubstantiated examples of widespread 
election fraud.  He explained that election fraud was 
difficult to substantiate because potential whistle-blowers 
fear for their safety, and that the press realizes it is not 
free to discuss such sensitive topics.  He asserted that in 
the 12,000 voting stations country-wide all poll workers were 
FRELIMO members, each under instruction to ensure a minimum 
of 10 votes in favor of FRELIMO from family, friends, and 
colleagues.  This alone ensured 840,000 votes for FRELIMO, 
according to Dhlakama, but does not necessarily constitute 
fraud.  The RENAMO President also complained that when his 
election monitors raised concerns about electoral malfeasance 
at the polls on Election Day the police arrested them. 
 
----------------------------------- 
DHLAKAMA: RENAMO NOT THE NEXT UNITA 
 
MAPUTO 00000049  002 OF 002 
 
 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (C)  Turning to RENAMO's plans, Dhlakama indicated that 
his party will push for a review of the election law which 
many observers believe unfairly biases the electoral playing 
field towards FRELIMO.  Unprompted, Dhlakama stated that 
unlike Angola's UNITA, RENAMO will continue to have a role in 
national politics.  Dhlakama said that he decided to move 
party headquarters to Nampula in order to be closer to his 
constituency and to be a part of the rapid growth taking 
place in the center of the country.  Despite statements to 
the press in the course of the campaign saying he would not 
run for president again if his party did not win, Dhlakama 
said he plans to continue his long tenure at the helm of the 
party and would indeed again campaign for the presidency. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
UNUSUAL VIEWS ON FRELIMO AND THE STATE 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (C)  Dhlakama described his unique perspective on the 
ruling party by asserting that FRELIMO continues to lead 
Guebuza, while in contrast he leads RENAMO.  Dhlakama also 
opined that the state apparatus controls FRELIMO, rather than 
the reverse, and that if FRELIMO were to fall out of power, 
the party would break apart quickly.  (Note: Contrary to 
Dhlakama's view, most political observers believe that over 
the past 5 years Guebuza has consolidated his power within 
the ruling party and now dominates its decisions.  Also, 
FRELIMO party leadership has confirmed that it in fact wields 
ultimate policy authority over the state, and therefore all 
branches of government are controlled by FRELIMO.  End Note) 
------------------------------ 
DHLAKAMA: MDM WILL NOT SUCCEED 
------------------------------ 
 
¶6.  (C)  When prompted about his views on the new opposition 
Democratic Movement of Mozambique (MDM) party led by RENAMO 
breakaway member Daviz Simango, which gained 8 seats in AR, 
Dhlakama dismissed MDM as a movement rather than a party, 
with little organization.  Dhlakama said he thinks Simango 
will not make it as an independent candidate, and may return 
to RENAMO.  (Note: In a January 7 interview in independent O 
Pais, Daviz Simango unequivocally states that he will not 
return to RENAMO.  End Note)  Dhlakama believed that FRELIMO 
attempted to hype MDM in an effort to weaken RENAMO prior to 
the elections, however election results clearly show that 
RENAMO is still the leading opposition party.  (Note: All 
indications suggest that FRELIMO was taken off guard by 
popular support for MDM and engaged in electioneering by 
disqualifying large numbers of MDM's AR candidates in order 
to limit the party's success in the national elections.  End 
Note)  Dhlakama flatly denied any rumors of collusion between 
FRELIMO and RENAMO to keep MDM out of power. 
 
------------------------------------- 
COMMENT: DHLAKAMA PART OF THE PROBLEM 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (C)  Dhlakama's performance in the run-up to the national 
elections proves that he continues to be a charming 
campaigner, but little else (reftel).  Despite Dhlakama's 
espoused concerns about multi-party democracy, by staying at 
the helm of his party he continues to ensure that RENAMO 
remains weak with minimal impact on national politics.  Daviz 
Simango is just the most recent in a long line of RENAMO 
members pushed out of the party by an increasingly jealous 
and out of touch Dhlakama who was long-ago co-opted by 
FRELIMO.  One rumor circulating is the possibility of RENAMO 
deputies in the AR defecting to MDM, thus reducing RENAMO's 
presence in the AR.  Dhlakama seems oblivious to the 
astonishing defeat that his party suffered in the October 28 
elections, and his analysis of FRELIMO and its relationship 
to organs of the state is simply upside down.  Post believes 
that if FRELIMO had not stepped in prior to the elections to 
disqualify large numbers of MDM candidates for the AR, Daviz 
Simango's party would have surpassed RENAMO on the national 
level to become the new leader of the opposition. 
CHAPMAN