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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MANILA 000073 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/MTS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/15/2020 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINS KISL RP
SUBJECT: GOVERNMENT RACING AGAINST TIME FOR MILF PEACE 
AGREEMENT 
 
REF: A. MANILA 2649 (MAGUINDANAO MASSACRE: INFLUENTIAL 
        MAYOR AND POLICEMEN IN CUSTODY) 
     ¶B. MANILA 2509 (INFORMAL GOVERNMENT-MILF TALKS 
        RESUME DECEMBER 8) 
 
Classified By: DCM Leslie A. Bassett, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY:  The Philippine government and the insurgent 
Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) are poised to continue 
difficult discussions this month on a comprehensive peace 
agreement, even as the Philippine government questions how 
much progress can be made in reconciling the parties' distant 
positions before President Arroyo leaves office in June. 
Philippine and MILF negotiators are expected to exchange 
drafts of a comprehensive peace agreement through the 
Malaysian facilitator during the week of January 18 -- at 
which point the parties will have a clearer understanding of 
precisely how much work remains to be done.  Malaysia may 
consider stepping down as peace process facilitator, making 
its tenure coterminous with President Arroyo's 
administration.  The International Contact Group has met 
twice to discuss its role in the peace process and the status 
of negotiations, although its cautious members appear 
reluctant to do anything more.  Staffing changes in the 
government could potentially affect the pace or substance of 
peace talks.  Meanwhile, in Mindanao, the MILF has engaged 
Muslim civil society groups about its vision for a new 
autonomous region -- and discovered that others have 
different ideas. End Summary. 
 
AS ELECTIONS APPROACH, NEGOTIATIONS TO CONTINUE 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶2. (C)  A Philippine official involved in the peace 
negotiations with the southern Philippines insurgent group 
Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) told us that the 
government had moderated its hope of signing a comprehensive 
peace compact before the end of President Arroyo,s term in 
June, but that it would nonetheless make an earnest effort. 
Philippine Peace Panel Director Ryan Sullivan said the 
Philippine government would exchange drafts of a final peace 
agreement with the MILF the week of January 18-22, as urged 
by the Malaysian peace facilitator, Datuk Othman.  Philippine 
Peace Panel Chairman Rafael Seguis was under pressure from 
President Arroyo to make more rapid progress, Sullivan said. 
Arroyo had ordered Seguis to produce a government draft 
before the official start of campaign season in February. 
Both President Arroyo's and Datuk Othman's exhortations are 
now driving the Philippine peace panel to work quickly on a 
draft agreement. 
 
GOVERNMENT'S DRAFT AGREEMENT: BASED ON LAW 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶3. (C) The Philippine's version of the draft agreement, 
Sullivan said, would draw on the constitution and existing 
laws in its formula for granting Mindanao's Muslims' more 
meaningful autonomy under a new governance structure, but it 
likely would not expand the proposed territory beyond the 
current boundaries of the Autonomous Region in Muslim 
Mindanao (ARMM).  According to The Asia Foundation Country 
Director Steve Rood in a January 11 conversation, two experts 
hired by Office of the Presidential Adviser on the Peace 
Process (OPAPP) issued a detailed recommendation to 
government negotiators for grounding the peace agreement in 
Philippine law, but Rood suspected their insightful 
recommendations may not have been fully incorporated into the 
government's draft.  (In 2008, the peace process collapsed 
after the Supreme Court issued a temporary restraining order 
prohibiting the signing of the 2008 territorial agreement. 
Bearing that in mind, U/S Seguis has consistently stressed to 
us his concern that any agreement not be susceptible to a 
court challenge.) 
 
DRAFT AGREEMENTS TO BE EXCHANGED, REVIEWED 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶4. (C) Malaysian peace process facilitator Datuk Othman will 
travel to Manila and the MILF's Camp Darapanan on or after 
January 20, multiple sources told us, to receive draft 
 
MANILA 00000073  002 OF 003 
 
 
agreements from the two peace panels, which he will review, 
comment on, and then share with both parties.  The Philippine 
peace panel is clearing its draft agreement with other 
agencies, and may later share the draft agreement with two of 
the most prominent critics of the peace process: Zamboanga 
City Mayor Celso Lobregat and North Cotabato province Vice 
Governor Manny Pinol, both of whom signed the August 2008 
petition that secured the Supreme Court's intervention to 
halt the signing of the territorial agreement.  The 
government hopes that sharing the draft agreement with them 
at this stage would demonstrate its commitment to a 
transparent peace process and to addressing critics' concerns 
early on, Sullivan explained. 
 
MALAYSIA MAY STEP DOWN AS FACILITATOR 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) Malaysia may step down as peace talks facilitator, 
Sullivan noted, making its tenure coterminous with the end of 
President Arroyo,s presidential term in June.  Malaysia 
could be growing weary of playing the middleman and might not 
be interested in working with a new Philippine 
administration.  Another factor, Sullivan speculated, could 
be Othman's personal desire to leave his position.  If the 
Malaysians do relinquish their role, Sullivan suggested the 
International Contact Group (ICG) could acquire a more 
important role in bridging the peace process into the next 
Philippine administration.  The government would consider 
Indonesia and Qatar as possible replacements for Malaysia, 
Sullivan said, but did not know MILF preferences. 
 
INTERNATIONAL CONTACT GROUP MOVES CAUTIOUSLY 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) According to The Asia Foundation's Rood, the ICG at 
its two meetings thus far has discussed the peace process in 
general terms, debating the ICG's role.  The group, and 
particularly the Japanese and Turkish delegations, favors a 
cautious approach of taking action only when requested by the 
negotiating parties.  This attitude stands in stark contrast 
to the UK's, which has advocated unsuccessfully for the ICG 
to show more independent initiative.  ICG discussions, Rood 
said, are generally moderated by the most senior diplomat in 
the room.  Rood also noted that the MILF suggested to him in 
December that ICG members attend all formal negotiating 
sessions and provide guidance to the parties on those 
occasions, although it was unclear to Rood how such guidance 
could be furnished in practice. 
 
STAFFING CHALLENGES AT OFFICE OF PEACE ADVISER 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶7. (C) Staffing changes at OPAPP could potentially affect 
OPAPP's ability to manage the peace process.  Former 
Congressman and General Santos City Mayor Adelberto Antonino 
resigned as a GRP peace panel member in December.  Antonino, 
closely aligned with Lobregat, has been overtly critical of 
the peace process, Sullivan said, and reportedly passed 
private OPAPP documents to Lobregat and Pinol.  Antonino is 
now adviser to OPAPP,s Chief Annabelle Abaya, and press 
reports have noted Abaya's intention to appoint a woman in 
his place.  OPAPP A/S Camilo "Bong" Montesa is likely to 
resign before the election, as will much of the OPAPP senior 
staff whose tenures are coterminous with President Arroyo,s. 
 These changes could leave only the few peace panel members 
and OPAPP's core MILF peace process staff in charge during 
the run-up to and aftermath of May 2010 elections. 
 
MILF AND MUSLIM GROUPS: DIFFERENT VISIONS 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (C)  As the peace process advances, the MILF has been 
conducting outreach to Muslim groups to discuss ideas on 
governance and leadership of a new Moro autonomous region. 
According to post's Mindanao-based contacts, MILF discussions 
with various Muslim groups in December and January revealed 
that Mindanao's middle class Muslims do not necessarily share 
the MILF's vision for an autonomous region steeped primarily 
in Moro culture and tradition.  While some of our 
Mindanao-based Muslim contacts wish to see an enhanced role 
 
MANILA 00000073  003 OF 003 
 
 
for Shari'a law in both civil and criminal matters in a new 
autonomous region -- as the MILF does -- they also want to 
retain democracy and strong roles for civil society in 
government oversight.  One Muslim contact, who favors a 
democratic but Shari'a-based autonomous region, said Muslim 
civil society groups would closely monitor the MILF after a 
peace agreement, aware of the potential for corruption and 
mismanagement because of the MILF's lack of governance 
experience.   Another contact, who represents young Muslim 
professionals, expressed concern that the MILF's vision of a 
"Moro homeland" was too exclusive of other kinds of Muslims 
and was not sufficiently worldly in its outlook.  Some young 
Muslims from Mindanao, the contact said, consider their 
"Muslim" or "Filipino" identities more central to their 
character than their "Moro" identity -- an opinion that 
staunch MILF supporters were disappointed to hear.  On 
leadership, a well-connected Maguindanao sourced noted that 
the MILF was considering Sultan Kudarat Governor Pax 
Mangudadatu, the uncle of Buluan Mayor Ismael Mangudadatu, 
whose wife and other family members died in a November 23 
massacre (Ref A), for the governorship of a new autonomous 
region -- a position that the MILF assumed would be appointed 
rather than elected. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶9. (C)  With President Arroyo and Datuk Othman now pushing 
for a peace agreement within the next five months, 
negotiations are expected to move at a faster clip, with a 
working draft to be produced by the end of January so the 
government can show progress before the official start of the 
campaign season on February 9.  If, as we are hearing from 
contacts, the parties are still far apart in their positions, 
or if the MILF does not accept the notion of a peace 
agreement grounded in Philippine law, it may prove impossible 
to conclude a comprehensive peace agreement during President 
Arroyo's time in office. 
KENNEY