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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANILA 000060 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/13/2020 
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM RP
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S FAREWELL BREAKFAST WITH PRESIDENTIAL 
CANDIDATE GILBERTO TEODORO 
 
Classified By: DCM Leslie A. Bassett, reason: 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1. (C) In a one-on-one January 11 breakfast with the 
Ambassador, presidential candidate Gilberto Teodoro betrayed 
a clear lack of enthusiasm for campaigning, noting time 
demands, difficult discussions with local officials, and a 
dearth of substance.  Teodoro spoke highly of his running 
mate, Edu Manzano, and said he was grateful that President 
Arroyo was not focusing on his campaign, since she 
represented a political liability.  Teodoro is currently a 
longshot candidate, registering at five percent in a recent 
credible poll, but has the ruling coalition's significant 
organizational and financial wherewithal behind him.  Teodoro 
also spoke highly of Secretary Clinton's November visit to 
the Philippines, and he assessed his successor as Secretary 
of National Defense was not running the Defense Department 
well.  End Summary. 
 
STILL LAGGING IN THE POLLS 
-------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) The Ambassador on January 11 hosted a one-on-one 
farewell breakfast at the Residence with Gilberto Teodoro, 
presidential candidate of the ruling Lakas-Kampi-CMD party. 
Just days earlier, new poll results from credible 
organization Social Weather Stations showed Teodoro badly 
lagging his rivals in the final days of December, as follows: 
 
Senator Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino........... 44 
Senator Manuel "Manny" Villar............. 33 
Ex-President Joseph "Erap" Estrada........ 15 
Ex-Defense Secretary Teodoro..............  5 
"Jesus is Lord" founder Eddie Villaneuva..  1 
Undecided.................................  4 
 
(Total exceeds 100 due to rounding.) 
 
CAMPAIGNING 
----------- 
 
¶3. (C) The Ambassador asked how Teodoro's campaign was 
proceeding.  Teodoro remarked that elections excite 
Filipinos; voters constantly sought to shake his hand and 
pose for photographs with him.  Teodoro admitted that, while 
the attention was flattering, he did not particularly enjoy 
the process.  He was dismayed by the frequent separation from 
his wife, Congresswoman Monica Prieto-Teodoro, and their son. 
 He also was increasingly frustrated with local government 
officials' efforts to seek quid pro quo exchanges for their 
political support.  Some of these officials had complained to 
the presidential Palace that Teodoro had been unresponsive to 
their requests, he noted. 
 
¶4. (C) Teodoro was spending most of his time trying to appeal 
either to the mass of voters in the lower socio-economic 
class or to the country's wealthiest, who might provide 
financing for his campaign (although Teodoro judged most 
major campaign financiers -- including his uncle, Eduardo 
"Danding" Cojuangco -- were waiting until later in the 
campaign to assess which candidates to back).  He was not 
targeting the country's small middle class electorate.  His 
focus was on the youth vote.  He had two speaking engagements 
at universities later in the day. 
 
¶5. (C) The Ambassador asked how Teodoro planned his campaign 
activities.  He said he was deferring to the judgment of his 
campaign committee.  Later in the week, he would visit Bohol, 
although he acknowledged this was not among the country's 
more vote-rich provinces.  (According to open sources, Bohol 
has slightly more than 1.1 million residents; the 
Philippines' total population is approximately 90 million.) 
 
¶6. (C) Teodoro said President Arroyo had a limited role in 
his campaign.  She was more focused on her own run for the 
House of Representatives, although she occasionally spoke 
with his campaign advisors.  Teodoro voiced relief that 
Arroyo was not significantly involved in his efforts, as he 
recognized her unpopularity with most voters made her a 
liability.  He was pleased with his running mate, Edu 
Manzano, however, citing Manzano's helpfulness and appeal to 
voters as a well-known television personality. 
 
¶7. (C) Teodoro was preparing for an upcoming foreign policy 
 
MANILA 00000060  002 OF 002 
 
 
debate but admitted the election would not focus on 
substantive issues.  The campaigns would necessarily aim 
simply to promote the candidates on personality grounds. 
When the Ambassador pressed whether there were issues voters 
did care about, Teodoro said the electorate simply wanted 
promises of a better life. 
 
REMARKS ON CLINTON VISIT, NEW GRP DEFENSE SECRETARY 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶8. (C) Teodoro remarked that Secretary Clinton, whose 
bilateral meeting with Foreign Secretary Romulo Teodoro had 
joined, had proven a highly impressive interlocutor and 
"charmed" the Philippine people in her media appearances. 
Teodoro also assessed that Philippine Secretary of National 
Defense Norberto Gonzales was doing a poor job of running the 
Department of National Defense, which Teodoro himself 
formerly headed.  He remarked that Gonzales' health was poor, 
and that Gonzales suffers from prostate cancer. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶9. (C) Teodoro has many positive attributes, including an 
impressive intellect, an excellent grasp of policy and strong 
public speaking skills, but he clearly lacks natural talent 
for and interest in the glad-handing and backroom dealing 
that so often characterize politics.  With the election now 
under four months away, Teodoro's relatively detached 
approach to his campaign might reflect an understanding that 
he is a currently a longshot candidate with no easy path to 
victory. 
KENNEY