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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANILA 000170 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/27/2020 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KJUS RP
SUBJECT: PHILIPPINE ELECTION: ESTRADA IN FOR NOW, VILLAR 
PRESSURED 
 
REF: 09 MANILA 2502 (MARTIAL LAW IN MAGUINDANAO) 
 
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i. Leslie A. Bassett, reason: 1.4 ( 
b) and (d). 
 
SUMMARY AND COMMENT 
------------------- 
 
¶1. (C) Though the presidential campaign officially starts 
Feb. 9, electioneering is in full swing, with the main 
candidates running ads, debating, and working to undercut 
opponents.  In a constitutionally questionable decision, a 
Commission on Elections (COMELEC) sub-panel ruled that former 
President Joseph Estrada is eligible to run for reelection. 
Opponents of Estrada have appealed to the full Commission and 
will likely appeal to the Supreme Court if needed, but 
Malacanang Palace has stayed quiet, perhaps calculating that 
Estrada would siphon votes from frontrunning Senator Noynoy 
Aquino, and not ruling party candidate Gilberto Teodoro. 
Second-place candidate Senator Manny Villar has been 
tarnished by a high-profile Senate investigation into charges 
he manipulated a major road project to benefit his business 
empire, but with the Senate set to adjourn Feb. 5, he may 
hope to escape final judgment.  COMELEC has received fewer 
than half of the 82,000 optical scanners needed for 
electronic vote tabulation in the May election, with the 
remainder due to be delivered by the end of February.  The 
police have begun to enforce a weapons ban imposed in 
conjunction with the election campaign, arresting hundreds of 
people and confiscating hundreds of weapons.  However, this 
represents a mere fraction of the guns in private hands in 
the Philippines, and incidents of political violence 
continue.  End Summary and Comment. 
 
ESTRADA CLEARS ONE HURDLE 
------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) In a constitutionally questionable move, a sub-panel 
of the Commission on Elections (COMELEC) ruled January 20 
that former President Joseph Estrada could compete for the 
presidency in May's election despite the Constitution's 
stipulation that "The President shall not be eligible for any 
reelection."  The COMELEC ruling accepted the argument of 
Estrada supporters that the constitutional restriction 
applies only to an incumbent running for reelection to the 
same office, although some Constitution drafters have 
publicly explained that they intended to cover reelection at 
any time.  The ruling also noted that Estrada's eligibility 
for the presidency was better left to voters to decide -- 
prompting at least one major daily newspaper to editorialize 
that COMELEC selectively applied this logic to Estrada's 
benefit, while using its discretionary authority to 
disqualify scores of other candidates. 
 
¶3. (C) A challenger has appealed the sub-panel ruling, and 
the COMELEC's full complement of seven commissioners will 
decide whether to uphold or overturn it.  Whichever way 
COMELEC decides, the issue will probably end up before the 
Supreme Court.  Malacanang Palace officials have been 
noticeably silent on the issue of Estrada's candidacy, likely 
calculating that Estrada would siphon more votes from Senator 
Noynoy Aquino, the current frontrunner, than from ruling 
coalition candidate Gilberto Teodoro.  While Estrada's and 
other candidates' eligibility remains in doubt, the COMELEC 
has delayed finalizing the ballots for printing.  COMELEC's 
original schedule entailed finalizing ballot layouts by 
January 25. 
 
POLITICAL ATTACK ON VILLAR 
-------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) Estrada is not the only candidate under pressure. 
Political opponents of Senator Manny Villar, ranked second in 
all opinion polls, have resurrected a high-profile Senate 
debate over a controversial Manila beltway road network known 
as the C-5.  An investigative report claims Senator Villar, 
who helped to shape the project, caused losses to the state 
of over 6.2 billion Pesos (over 130 million USD) due to 
additional costs and unnecessary payments.  Villar also 
allegedly accrued illegitimate benefits totaling over 141 
million Pesos (over 3 million USD) from excessive state 
payments for purchases of land from Villar's extensive real 
estate holdings for the project.  (Additionally, Villar 
allegedly diverted the road's course in order to bring it 
closer to land he owns, increasing his land's value.)  The 
committee report recommends the censure of Villar for 
 
MANILA 00000170  002 OF 002 
 
 
unethical conduct. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Villar's allies in the Senate have vehemently 
attacked the report's backers, most notably Senate President 
Juan Ponce Enrile (currently allied with Estrada).  Villar's 
side has indicated it would seek to vote Enrile out of the 
Senate presidency, if it can win majority support for such a 
move.  Enrile has fired back with allegations that Villar 
privately hinted to Enrile he could offer a payoff to quash 
the report.  It is unclear whether the Senate will vote on 
the report's recommendations before it recesses for election 
campaigning Feb. 5, but the debate has served Villar's 
political opponents well, by associating him publicly with 
scandal. 
 
SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS ON ELECTION AUTOMATION 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶6. (C) As of January 26, COMELEC had received 30,900 
Smartmatic optical scanners, all manufactured overseas. 
Under the plan to automate elections nationwide for the first 
time in the Philippines, and hopefully reduce the widespread 
ballot tampering that has marred past elections, some 37,422 
polling stations will use the machines to scan paper ballots, 
tabulate the results, and transmit the results electronically 
to multiple servers.  The COMELEC's current schedule calls 
for receipt of all machines (approximately 82,000) by the end 
of February, but COMELEC officials are unable to predict 
reliably when the machines will arrive.  A representative of 
U.S. company Systest, which is currently evaluating the 
Smartmatic machines on behalf of COMELEC, plans to visit 
Manila February 5-10. 
 
GUN BAN, BUT CONTINUING VIOLENCE 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) With the formal election period approaching, the 
authorities have sought to enforce a strict weapons ban.  A 
police contact told us that, as of January 26, authorities 
arrested 439 persons (33 police officials, 25 military 
officials, 18 government officials, and the rest being 
civilians) for violating the weapons ban.  Weapons 
confiscated included 159 high-powered firearms; 216 
low-powered firearms; 55 bladed weapons; 10 grenades; one 
explosive device.  However, this represents a tiny fraction 
of the weapons in private hands in the Philippines, where gun 
possession is ubiquitous. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Senator Villar has expressed alarm over a "climate 
of violence" in the runup to the May 10 elections, claiming 
that at least four members of his Nacionalista Party who are 
seeking local seats were killed in separate incidents in the 
past two months.  Senator Aquino, the Liberal Party 
presidential candidate, also said publicly that little has 
been done to curb electoral violence and urged the government 
to do more. 
 
¶9. (C) A high-ranking police contact told us that, since 
January 10, the police have received reports of eight 
killings that may have been election-related.  Investigators 
determined that four of those killings in fact were the 
result of personal, not political, feuds; investigations into 
the other four continue.  Our contact could not provide a 
number for election-related threats or non-lethal assaults 
but noted that approximately 1,000 candidates for national or 
lower-level offices had requested a government security 
detail.  The authorities have approved the provision of 
approximately 500 of those security details, 250 of which are 
already active.  Communist efforts to target "dirty 
politicians" and to extort fees (in exchange for what they 
term "campaign permits") will also contribute to violence in 
the run-up to elections. 
BASSETT