VZCZCXRO2307
RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHLS #0009 0071018
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 071018Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY LUSAKA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7540
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE

C O N F I D E N T I A L LUSAKA 000009 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/S LAYLWARD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2019 
TAGS: PGOV ZA
SUBJECT: BANDA'S GOTTA GET A GRIP:  FISSURES IN RULING 
PARTY BUT STILL HOLDING TOGETHER 
 
REF: A. 08 LUSAKA 875 
     ¶B. 09 LUSAKA 805 
     ¶C. 09 LUSAKA 911 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Donald E. Booth for reasons 1.4 (b,d) 
 
¶1.  (C) Party-line fractures have begun to appear in the 
ruling Movement for Multiparty Democratic (MMD) Party's 
facade of unity since President Banda took office in November 
¶2008.  The ruling party's base remains fundamentally sound, 
and its internal conflicts should not undermine Zambia's 
stability.  Much of the ruling party's internal tensions stem 
from friction between Banda and party leaders such as former 
vice president Enock Kavindele, former Defense Minister 
George Mpombo, and former Finance Minister Peter Magande, who 
(wrongly) assumed that Banda would keep his word and continue 
the policies of the late president Levy Mwanawasa and not 
seek re-election in 2011. 
 
¶2.  (C) Banda was a consensus choice for president in 2008 
who met party mavens' conditions as an older, 
not-so-ambitious candidate who should have been satisfied 
with serving out a partial term and making way for new 
leadership in 2011 (ref A).  President Banda's efforts to 
pursue his own political agenda, including his re-election, 
has alienated some party leaders and prompted others, 
including MMD co-founder and former MP Syacheye Madyenkuku, 
former North Western Province MMD Chairman Bert Mushala, and 
former gender minister Patricia Mulasikwanda, to leave the 
party. 
 
¶3.  (C) Banda has not yet consolidated control over the MMD, 
and his preference for command and control that harkens back 
to his United National Independence Party (UNIP) days when 
Zambia was a one-party state are making him more enemies 
within the party.  Banda is an MMD newcomer who joined the 
party only in 2005, and therefore lacks an internal support 
base.  Beyond his small circle of MMD confidantes, the 
president has few allies on whom he can rely to further his 
agenda.  Some of his closest allies include Home Affairs 
Minister Lameck Mangani, Minister of Works and Supply Mike 
Mulongoti, Tourism Minister Catherine Namugala, newly 
appointed Agriculture Minister Peter Daka, Education Minister 
Dora Saliya, presidential advisor Ben Kapita, and Lusaka 
Province Minister Charles Shawa. 
 
¶4.  (C) Banda's loose grip on the reigns of MMD power appears 
to have left him vulnerable to attacks by political rivals 
who are intent on replacing him as the party's 2011 
presidential nominee.  While Banda is interested in holding 
on to power and enriching his family (ref B), he indicated to 
Ambassador that he is sensitive to the criticism he has 
received as president and may forego re-election if he 
concludes that the costs (in terms of personal attacks) 
outweigh the benefits (ref C).  He tried to pre-empt any open 
challenges by getting the MMD's National Executive Committee 
to indicate he would be the party candidate in 2011. 
However, pressures from MMD rivals and the grass roots 
(provincial MMD structures) seem to have convinced Banda that 
he needs to allow an MMD convention to choose the party's 
candidate for 2011.  His strategy now appears to be to try to 
time a convention to his benefit. 
 
¶5.  (C) Although the MMD has shown signs of fissures under 
Banda's stewardship, it has been resilient because it is the 
party with the deep pockets.  That is why Banda's rivals will 
first try to supplant him as the MMD candidate rather than 
bolt to another political party or form their own party. 
Because of incumbency, the MMD has a tremendous financial 
resource advantage over all other parties and candidates. 
BOOTH