VZCZCXYZ0005
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHLP #0144/01 0261852
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 261851Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY LA PAZ
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0541
INFO RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO

UNCLAS LA PAZ 000144 
 
SIPDIS 
DEPARTMENT FOR CA/FPP MARIA LANE, PAUL FERMOILE AND BILL MULLER 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: CVIS KFRD BL
SUBJECT: Embassy La Paz Validation Study Results 
 
¶1.       (SBU) Summary: Embassy La Paz recently concluded two small 
validation studies of recipients of J1 visas and members of a 
traditional Bolivian dance troupe.  The Consular Section suspected 
high overstay rates among both groups and conducted the studies to 
determine actual return rates.  The results revealed that among J1 
recipients, au pairs were significantly more likely than non-au 
pairs to overstay their visas.  The Bolivian dance group returned 
more reliably than expected, though the small sample size used for 
the study reduced Post's confidence in the significance of the 
results.  End Summary. 
 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
BACKGROUND OF SELECTED GROUPS 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
 
 
¶2.       (SBU) Determining Bolivian au pairs' eligibility for a J1 
visa is particularly difficult for consular officers.  Nearly all 
of them are young, single women from middle to middle-low class 
families who have little or no established work history.  Their 
ties to Bolivia are generally scant, they rarely have any 
international travel, and many times they have a family or friend 
connection in the United States.  In prior meetings with the Fraud 
Prevention Unit (FPU), Bolivian au pair recruitment organizations 
have assured consular officers that their candidates are thoroughly 
vetted to ensure their return to Bolivia.  FPU decided to test the 
integrity of the vetting process by conducting a validation study 
on J1 recipients with a particular focus on au pairs. 
 
 
 
¶3.       (U) FPU also conducted a one hundred percent survey of 
twenty-seven members of a traditional Bolivian dance group who 
received a B1/B2 visa between August and September 2009.  Members 
of this group are usually young, single, and from families 
representing lower socioeconomic groups.  After FPU uncovered 
attempts by several people falsely posing as members of the group, 
it decided to conduct a validation study on individuals issued 
visas. 
 
 
 
-------------------- 
 
METHODOLOGY 
 
-------------------- 
 
 
 
¶4.       (U) FPU randomly selected ninety J1 recipients from a 
total of 285 visas issued between June 2007 and June 2008.  FPU 
selected the sample cohort using the CCD and Excel as described on 
the Consular Affairs website.  The sample size yielded an eleven 
percent margin of error at a ninety-five percent confidence 
interval and a 9.5 percent margin of error at a ninety percent 
confidence interval.  Thirty-nine of the J1 recipients surveyed 
were au pairs. 
 
 
 
¶5.       (U) FPU surveyed 100 percent of the Caporales San Simon 
dance troupe visa recipients.  Of the twenty-seven individuals 
surveyed, sixteen were female and eleven were male.  Twenty-five of 
the respondents were from the city of Cochabamba while two were 
from Santa Cruz. 
 
 
 
------------------------- 
 
J1 SURVEY RESULTS 
 
------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶6.       (U) The J1 validation results revealed that among the 
thirty-nine au pairs surveyed, fifteen were confirmed overstays 
compared to twenty-two confirmed returns.  FPU was unable to 
 
confirm the travel of two individuals.   Consequently, the overstay 
rate for au pair J1s was 38.5 percent. 
 
 
 
¶7.       (U) A closer look at the au pair overstays revealed that 
some of them appear to have legally adjusted status while in the 
United States.  According to information provided by the host 
families, at least one third of the confirmed overstays adjusted to 
F1 status.  The host family of another au pair extended her J1 
status for an additional six months.  FPU was unable to contact six 
of the fifteen host families to inquire about their au pairs' 
whereabouts. 
 
 
 
¶8.       (SBU) Among non-au pair J1s, the overstay rate was 15.6 
percent.  Of the fifty-one non-au pairs surveyed, eight were 
confirmed overstays compared to forty-three confirmed returns. 
Based on these results, FPU concluded that the au pair J1 cohort 
was considerably more likely to overstay its authorized stay in the 
United States as compared to the non-au pair group. 
 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
CAPORALES SAN SIMON SURVEY RESULTS 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
 
 
¶9.       (U) Results from the Caporales San Simon dance group 
validation study suggested that the group members are generally 
good visa applicants.  Of the twenty-seven people surveyed, FPU 
confirmed that twenty-two returned, four did not travel, and only 
one person overstayed.  However, because of the small sample size, 
the margin of error was significant enough that the results cannot 
be considered conclusive. 
 
 
 
------------------- 
 
CONCLUSIONS 
 
------------------- 
 
 
 
¶10.   (SBU) The J1 validation results confirmed FPU's suspicion 
that au pairs are more prone to overstay their visas as compared to 
non-au pairs.  Post plans to implement a more rigorous 
pre-screening process to better assess au pairs' ties to Bolivia. 
 
 
 
¶11.   (SBU) While the Caporales San Simon validation results were 
encouraging, FPU cannot draw too many conclusions based on such a 
small sample size.  However, FPU attributes the good return rate to 
two factors.  First, the Caporales group is a well-established 
troupe that likely creates a strong sense of community for its 
members which compels them to return.  Second, FPU conducted a 
thorough pre-screening of the applicants prior to their interview 
to verify their membership within the group. 
Creamer