VZCZCXRO2403
OO RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHKH #0160/01 0310916
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O R 310915Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0092
INFO IGAD COLLECTIVE
UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000160 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
NSC FOR MGAVIN, LETIM 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KPKO MOPS SMIG SU
SUBJECT: MISSERIYA BUILDING PERMANENT STRUCTURES IN ABYEI 
 
REF: 10 KHARTOUM 54; 10 KHARTOUM 34 
 
¶1. (SBU) In a conversation with Poloff on January 26, Mark Rutgers, 
United Nations Mission in Sudan (UNMIS) Head of Office for Sector 
VI (Abyei), stated that members of the Misseriya tribe are 
constructing large permanent structures in five separate locations 
in the Abyei area without required permits from the local 
administration.  Further, Charles Abyei (SPLM), Speaker of the 
Abyei Legislative Council, told Poloff on January 27, that 
Misseriya leaders have announced plans to construct 40 permanent 
modern villages in Abyei, that the government has provided support 
for this initiative, and that the intention was to enable the 
Misseriya to participate in the Abyei referendum in January, 2011. 
Meanwhile, as the Misseriya continue to shift east into Unity State 
in search of pastureland, they encounter Sudan People's Liberation 
Army (SPLA) forces intent on disarming them, resulting in the 
second shootout this month between Misseriya nomads and the SPLA. 
The latest developments in Abyei could hardly be more negative, but 
perhaps attendees of the recently scheduled Border Governors' Forum 
in early February can develop a concerted approach to this 
festering crisis. 
 
------------------- 
Abyei Building Boom 
------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) In a conversation with Poloff on January 26, Mark Rutgers, 
UNMIS Head of Office for Sector VI (Abyei), stated that members of 
the Misseriya tribe have received building materials and are 
constructing buildings in five separate locations in the Abyei 
area.  The buildings are reportedly large structures, and the 
Misseriya have told UNMIS patrols that they are building schools 
and medical clinics.  (Note: Northern areas of the Abyei Special 
Administrative District typically contain numerous temporary 
villages during the dry season, consisting of temporary structures 
and nomadic camps.  These recent building activities are unusual 
because they consist of large public facilities built with bricks. 
End Note.)  The origin of the materials in unknown, but Rutgers 
confirms that they were not received from the Abyei Administration. 
Further, the construction activities were not coordinated with the 
Abyei Administration and no building permits were received.  Deng 
Arop Kuol (SPLM), the newly appointed Abyei Administrator (Ref A), 
is currently in Juba, and Rutgers expects that any response to the 
illegal construction activities will await Kuol's arrival. 
 
¶3. (SBU) On January 27, Poloff spoke to Charles Abyei, Speaker of 
the Abyei Legislative Council, who said that the Misseriya have 
recently held two public rallies in the Abyei area.  Abyei stated 
that at the first rally Misseriya leaders announced a plan to 
construct 40 permanent modern villages in Abyei, that the 
government has provided support for this initiative, and that the 
intention was to enable the Misseriya to participate in the Abyei 
referendum in January, 2011.  (Note: According to the recently 
passed Abyei Referendum Law, in order to participate in the Abyei 
referendum an individual must either be a Ngok Dinka, or a 
"resident of Abyei."  The law leaves it to a yet-to-be-formed Abyei 
Referendum Commission to define who is a "resident of Abyei," but 
the definition is likely to require some evidence of permanent 
residence.  End Note.)  Abyei told Poloff that at the second rally, 
Misseriya leaders spoke of mobilizing Misseriya resistance to any 
forces that attempt to stop these building initiatives.  Abyei also 
noted that current building sites are not only in northern Abyei, 
where the Misseriya typically settle during the dry season, but 
dispersed throughout the Abyei Special Administrative District. 
 
-------------------------------- 
Another Shoot-out in Unity State 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) On January 26, UNMIS reported a fire-fight between 
Misseriya tribes people and SPLA soldiers in Unity State resulting 
in one SPLA soldier and two Misseriya killed.  The direct cause of 
the shoot-out is unknown, but the SPLA is attempting to enforce a 
no-arms policy in Southern Sudan and requiring Misseriya herders to 
disarm upon entering the south, which the Misseriya are reluctant 
to do.  This is the second shoot-out between SPLA solders and 
Misseriya in Unity State in January (Ref B). 
 
---------------------------------- 
Border Governors' Forum Scheduled 
---------------------------------- 
 
KHARTOUM 00000160  002 OF 002 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) On January 24, Aidoff met with Ahmed Haroun (NCP), 
Governor of Southern Kordofan state, who mentioned that he has 
scheduled the long anticipated Governors' Forum for the Border 
States for February 2-3.  (Note: The Forum for the Border States is 
an opportunity for the Governors of all ten Sudanese states that 
share the 1956 north/south border, as well as the Abyei 
Administrator, to discuss border issues.  End Note.)  Haroun 
declined offered assistance with the forum and has not invited 
international participation.  The agenda of the forum is not 
available but it is likely that migration issues will be discussed 
in some form. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Comment: The latest developments in Abyei could hardly be 
more negative.  It appears that the Misseriya are attempting to 
numerically flood the Abyei area in the lead-up to the referendum 
in order to win Abyei for northern Sudan.  Any attempt to rig the 
Abyei referendum by filling it with Misseriya will be seen by the 
Ngok Dinka as an existential threat.  The Ngok Dinka consider Abyei 
their homeland, and recognize that their existence there will be 
extremely tenuous if, as a result of the January 2011 referenda, 
they are cut off from the south and left to the civil and military 
oversight of the north.  Senior SPLM figures will likewise consider 
such a move extremely provocative.  The Abyei Administrator is also 
obligated to respond in some fashion to these unauthorized 
construction activities coming as a direct challenge to the 
authority of his new administration.  With the Misseriya preparing 
for confrontation and the Abyei Administration obligated to 
respond, the potential for violence is high. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Comment Continued: Ironically, these moves by the 
Misseriya may ultimately hurt Misseriya interests irreparably. 
While the Misseriya are rightfully concerned about the future of 
Abyei and SPLA control of this region, the existential issue for 
the Misseriya is not residency, but grazing rights, both in Abyei 
and beyond into Southern Sudan.  If the Misseriya anger the Dinka 
and the SPLM enough, they could find themselves after January, 2011 
with the hard border that they fear, permanently losing the ability 
to graze their cattle in Southern Sudan which is necessary for the 
survival of their herds.  The best solution for Abyei is probably a 
deal in which the Misseriya agree not to contest the Abyei 
referendum in return for which the SPLM agree in writing to respect 
the grazing rights of the Misseriya in perpetuity, spell out the 
parameters of these rights, and perhaps even put a clause in their 
constitution stating as much.  The latest events take the parties 
another large step away from this result.  End Comment. 
WHITEHEAD