VZCZCXRO2396
OO RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHKH #0158/01 0310836
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O R 310835Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0090
INFO IGAD COLLECTIVE
UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000158 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
NSC FOR MGAVIN, LETIM 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR SU
SUBJECT: DARFUR ELECTIONS UPDATE, PART I: IN NORTH DARFUR'S GOVERNOR 
RACE, KIBIR SEEKS HOLD ON POWER AMIDST UNCERTAIN COMPETITION 
 
REF: 10 KHARTOUM 55; 09 KHARTOUM 1411 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: North Darfur Wali (Governor) Osman Mohamed Yousif 
Kibir is seeking to extend his rule as the National Congress Party 
(NCP) candidate in the upcoming April elections. Though generally 
unpopular even among his own Berti tribe, Kibir has extensive party 
resources at his disposal and faces an uncertain competition; a 
coalition of opposition parties and Darfuri civil society 
organizations have urged that elections be postponed until peace 
and security is restored, yet candidates from some of these same 
parties, including Popular Congress Party (PCP), Umma Party and 
SPLM, have made known their intent to run against Kibir. Though 
unable to register as a political party, Sudan Liberation 
Army/Minni Minnawi has also declared its intent to field a 
candidate as an independent. The opposition candidates' level of 
support or ability to wage a convincing campaign remains unknown, 
though it will likely be hampered by a lack of access due to an 
unpredictable security situation, and lack of funds. End Summary. 
 
----------------------- 
BACKGROUND DEMOGRAPHICS 
----------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) North Darfur state, with a population of approximately 2.1 
million according to the 2008 census results, is an ethnically 
diverse region. Among the main ethnic groups are the Fur, who are 
found in the area of Jebel Marra as well as the eastern and 
northern plains; the Zaghawa, who inhabit the barren northwest near 
the Chadian border as well as the areas of Shangil Tobaya and Dar 
es Salaam; the Berti and Tunjur tribes in the area of Mellit and 
Taweisha, respectively; and the Maidob in the far north. North 
Darfur's nomadic Arab tribes are found primarily in Kabkabiya as 
well as the areas East of El Fasher and Um Kaddada. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Aside from nomadic Arab tribes, most of North Darfur's 
people are agro-pastoralists, a lifestyle which has been severely 
disrupted by massive displacement caused by the conflict. There are 
four major Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) camps in North 
Darfur, three of which are on the outskirts of El Fasher: Zam Zam 
camp is almost entirely Zaghawa, while Abu Shouk and Al Salam camps 
are inhabited by a mix of Fur, Tunjur and other smaller tribes. 
Kassab IDP camp near Kutum is inhabited by a mix of Fur, Tunjur and 
Zaghawa. Most IDPs in North Darfur are indigenous to the state, 
with the exception of the tens of thousands of Zaghawa who fled 
fighting in Muhajeriya and surrounding villages in early 2009 for 
refuge in Zam Zam camp. Few IDPs participated in voter registration 
in North Darfur's IDP camps. 
 
¶4. (SBU) For much of the past decade, North Darfur has been a 
hotbed of rebel and Arab militia activity, making passage by road 
highly treacherous. Fighters from Sudan Liberation Army/Abdul Wahid 
(SLA) hold territory in the northern reaches of Jebel Marra, Ain 
Siro, and the remote outpost of El Hilif. Dar Zaghawa is roamed by 
numerous Zaghawa rebels, with affiliations SLA/Unity, United 
Resistance Front (URF), and the Justice and Equality Movement 
(JEM). The area is also a stronghold of Darfur Peace Agreement 
(DPA) signatory Sudan Liberation Army/Minni Minnawi, as is the area 
South of El Fasher, including Shangil Tobay. Both Minnawi and the 
rebels have seen their areas of influence shrink as the GOS has 
made significant gains on rebel territory in North Darfur in 2009. 
Arab militia fighters, many whom have been integrated to the GOS 
military and security apparatus, are present in the areas of 
Kabkabiya and Kutum as well as the eastern parts of the state, 
centered around Um Kaddada. Chadian armed opposition groups 
operating out of Sudan are also currently situated in the area of 
Mellit. 
 
--------------------------- 
CURRENT POLITICAL LANDSCAPE 
--------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) The NCP maintains a strong hold on North Darfur State. The 
current Wali (Governor) of North Darfur is Osman Mohamed Yousif 
Kibir, a member of the Berti tribe. Kibir assumed office in 2003 
following Khartoum's dismissal of former General Ibrahim Ahmed 
Suleiman for his opposition to using Arab militia fighters to 
launch a counterinsurgency against the SLA, and has been 
reappointed three times by President Bashir. A lifetime National 
Congress Party member, he has maintained favor with the regime by 
remaining loyal and implementing the policies of decision-makers in 
Khartoum, which at times has made him unpopular even among his own 
 
KHARTOUM 00000158  002 OF 002 
 
 
tribe; in January 2010 local media reported that the leader of the 
Berti appealed to Kibir to remove Chadian rebels from the Berti 
homeland following a series of raids of villages, looting and rapes 
(ref A). Kibir allegedly told him that he could do nothing, as the 
decision to relocate the Chadians to the area had originated with 
the Government of Sudan (GOS) in Khartoum. 
 
------------------------ 
The 2010 GOVERNOR'S RACE 
------------------------ 
 
¶6. (SBU) Kibir is the NCP's candidate for the Governorship in North 
Darfur, though the rest of the field is somewhat muddled. On 
January 24, an alliance of opposition parties and Darfuri civil 
society organizations held a press conference in Khartoum urging 
the government to postpone elections until peace and security in 
Darfur has been restored. Nonetheless some of these same opposition 
parties have named candidates for the North Darfur Governorship. 
Hassan al Turabi's Popular Congress Party (PCP) for example, has 
nominated Abdalla Al Dowma Adam, a Berti from Mellit. Once NCP 
Secretary for North Darfur, he joined the Popular Congress Party 
following Turabi's split from the National Islamic Front (NIF), 
which later became the NCP. Adam reportedly runs several businesses 
in North Darfur, and is seeking to capitalize on dissatisfaction 
among the Berti with Kibir's failure to prevent mayhem caused by 
Chadian rebels in the Berti homeland. 
 
¶7. (SBU) The Umma party, a historical force in the region, has 
nominated Ismael Kitir Abdel Karim. A Zaghawa from Tine, he serves 
as the head of the Umma Party in North Darfur and is Chairman of 
the Darfur Forum for Reconciliation and Peaceful Coexistence, a 
civil society organization. The SPLM, meanwhile nominated Dr. Adam 
Musa, a member of the Fur tribe and medical doctor currently 
working with the North Darfur Ministry of Health. The DUP has 
decided to put forth Dr. Mutasim Abdalla Mohamed Sharif, a 
veterinary doctor currently working for the Food and Agriculture 
Organization of the United Nations (FAO) in El Fasher. The latter 
two candidates are relatively unknown and are not expected to 
compete seriously in the race. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Despite being unable to register with the National 
Electoral Commission (NEC) as a political party (ref B), 
SLA/Minnawi plans to run candidates at several levels in the 2010 
elections as independents, according to SLA/Minnawi Head of Foreign 
Relations Ali Traio. (Note: Traio told poloff on July 26 that local 
media reports of Minnawi himself running for a parliamentary seat 
representing Umm Barro, North Darfur were false. He noted that 
Minnawi is not planning to declare himself for any position. End 
Note.) For the North Darfur Governorship, Traio stated that 
SLA/Minnawi will run Dr. Mohamed Musa, a Berti. An agricultural 
economist, Musa currently serves as a dean at the university of 
Khartoum. Another independent candidate is Ibrahim Mohamed 
Suleiman, a former State Minister of Finance in North Darfur. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Because opposition party candidates were announced only 
very recently, the candidates have conducted very little 
campaigning to date. In addition to a lack of funds, they are 
restricted from travel by an unpredictable security situation. In 
contrast, the Wali--protected by the GOS military and security 
apparatus--has traveled extensively throughout North Darfur to 
mobilize support, including trips to Kutum, Mellit, Taweisha, 
Malha, and Kabkabiya. In one instance Kibir, accompanied by 
influential Presidential Assistant Dr. Nafie Ali Nafie, reportedly 
flew via UNAMID helicopter to Um Kaddada ostensibly with the stated 
purpose of inaugurating a new development project, but in fact held 
a political rally to mobilize NCP supporters. Rumors also abound 
that the NCP has co-opted state and local elections committees to 
manipulate voter registration in its favor, and that the party is 
making ample use of its access to local media to propagate its 
message. Opposition parties in North Darfur, starved for funding 
and without access to government resources, have had no such chance 
to campaign. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Comment: With an underfunded opposition that is unable to 
access most of the state, the NCP appears to be taking full 
advantage of superior resources and organization to guarantee a 
landslide victory. With polling non-existent, it is difficult to 
ascertain what, if any, support the opposition candidates may have. 
Post plans to meet with opposition candidates in El Fasher in the 
coming weeks. 
WHITEHEAD