VZCZCXRO3598
PP RUEHDBU RUEHPW RUEHSL
DE RUEHBUL #0377/01 0311634
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P 311634Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5223
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 000377 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/29/2020 
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL AF
SUBJECT: 2010 ELECTIONS: IEC AND ISAF PRELIMINARY PLANS 
 
REF: KABUL 245 
 
Classified By: Polcouns Annie Pforzheimer, reasons 1.4 b,d 
 
¶1.  (S/REL) Summary: In recent conversations, Independent 
Election Commission (IEC) officials speculated that they were 
behind on 2010 election preparations and expressed doubt that 
the IEC could operate without international assistance. 
Meanwhile, ISAF contacts confirmed that ISAF is beginning 
plans to support the election with security and "logistic 
support in extremis."  End Summary. 
 
IEC Plans 
--------- 
 
¶2.  (S/REL) In a meeting on January 20, the head of one of 
the IEC's key technical units told us that there was no 
procurement plan as yet, although elections at that point 
were fixed for exactly four months later.  He had a structure 
of field operations for the 2010 Parliamentary elections, but 
said the IEC lacks plans for any of the following portions of 
election administration: tally software design or other IT 
needs, logistics, training, public affairs, or 
finance/administration. 
 
¶3.  (S/REL) Our source reported that registration packets for 
candidates have been sent out to the provinces, using a 
privately contracted transportation company, and that this 
company and others could be used to deliver election 
materials to about 70 percent of the country.  For the 
remaining 30 percent, he said, either ISAF would have to do 
it via air or "there will be no election there."  He opined 
that ballots might make it to Provincial or District capitals 
but the police chiefs and government officials would simply 
stuff the boxes and send them back, without opening polling 
centers.  He claimed that the ANSF alone would not be enough 
to secure the materials in this 30 percent of the country 
which he characterized as being Pashtun-majority areas. 
(Note: source is Pashtun.  End note.) 
 
¶4.  (S/REL) The official confirmed that the planned two days 
of training for candidate registration agents had taken place 
and that the training was good but that the entire election 
administration system was "broken" so the training was 
irrelevant.  He said that when he had raised this issue of 
the need to make improvements in electoral operations since 
2009 with Daoud Najafi, currently Chief Electoral Officer of 
the IEC and head of the Secretariat, Najafi said the system 
works fine and that there was no need to worry.  As of 
January 27 1300 candidates had registered at IEC Provincial 
offices nationwide. 
 
¶5.  (S/REL) In another meeting on January 27 with the same 
official, he said he had eliminated the fake polling centers 
in Nangarhar, Ghazni, Paktika, and Kandahar so that though he 
had not changed the number of legitimate polling centers in 
these provinces, it looked like an overall decrease.  He said 
he would do the same in Nuristan but had to wait until closer 
to the election date as this might prevent protest 
demonstrations from being organized there.  He said he had 
increased the total polling centers a bit in Kabul Province 
but in all other cases, polling centers were the same as in 
¶2009.  He said that in reality there are around 6,800 polling 
centers but he is budgeting for 7,000 because he expects to 
be forced to increase the number by IEC leadership for 
"political" reasons. 
 
¶6.  (S/REL) When asked if the 6,000 poll workers suspected of 
fraud in the 2009 by the IEC leadership will be re-hired for 
the 2010 election, he said he was unsure.  He planned to try 
and keep them from being pollworkers again but he was 
concerned IEC leadership would force him to re-hire the 
workers, again for "political reasons."  He opined that if 
Najafi and Ludin, the IEC Chief Electoral Officer and Chair 
of the IEC respectively, are allowed to serve in the IEC in 
any capacity, the 2010 election will be worse than 2009 
because they are both emboldened and better educated in how 
to commit fraud.  We raised the issue of UNDP's plan not to 
hire any provincial election officials due to the security 
situation and their elevated threat level following the 
October 28 attacks on the UN guesthouse in Kabul. 
International election experts have expressed major concern 
about how this will negatively effect the control of 
electoral materials once they are shipped from Kabul to the 
provinces.  Our source said that if there is at least one 
international representative present in each province and 
monitoring the chain of control for election materials it 
will be satisfactory but that without the international 
presence the likelihood of fraud increases dramatically. 
 
¶7.  (S/REL) The source urged the international community to 
check constantly during the election to be sure about the 
disposition of donated funds.  He said it had been very 
effective when, following the announcement of the Minister of 
Finance that the GIRoA could fund the elections from the 
treasury, donors had immediately gone to the Ministry and 
walled off donated funds for the earmarked programs forcing 
the GIRoA to acknowledge that it had no funds available 
without donor permission. 
 
Coming Shape of the Commission? 
------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (S/REL) Our source and others have noted that Chairman 
Ludin's appointment to the Independent Election Commission 
(IEC) ended on January 23.  After that date, his signature is 
not valid on any IEC documents.  Our source noted that Chief 
Electoral Officer Daoud Najafi, in Palace favor since his 
defense of Karzai during the 2009 Presidential elections 
endgame, wants to be named Chairman of the Commission itself. 
 At the same time, General Ayub Assil, current Deputy Chair 
of the Commission, is also trying for the Chair but he is in 
a less powerful position, forced to use political party 
connections to lobby rather than any direct connection to the 
President. 
 
¶9.  (C/REL) According to Canadian officials, in a meeting 
with the Deputy Chief Electoral Officer of the IEC 
Secretariat, Zekria Barakzai, on January 14, Barakzai 
reportedly said he believed Chairman Ludin and possibly 
himself would be removed from office.  However, at a January 
23 meeting with President Karzai which Chairman Ludin 
attended (reftel), no mention was made of the fact that 
Ludin's appointment to the IEC was officially at an end. 
Later the same day, PolCounselor was told by Barakzai that 
Ludin may be re-appointed for another three years.  First 
Deputy Speaker of the Lower House of the Parliament, Mirwais 
Yasini, told the Embassy on January 26 that he spoke to 
Barakzai and advised him to tell Chairman Ludin to step down 
quietly rather than allow himself to become the center of 
controversy. 
 
ISAF Plans 
---------- 
 
¶10.  (C/REL) ISAF continues to plan to provide security 
support for the elections, in partnership with ANSF, as well 
as "logistic support in extremis" despite the election date 
change.  There will be more activity related to troop build 
up through the summer, relative to the fall, when the build 
up will taper off.  When asked if security and logistic 
support to the elections would hamper ISAF's troop build up 
or the new counterinsurgency strategy, ISAF election support 
planners opined that while it is always best to have all 
resources directed toward one objective, they did not foresee 
resources needed for the force uplift being re-directed to 
the elections to the extent that troop inflow would be 
adversely affected, particularly not for logistical support 
to the elections. 
 
 
Ricciardone