VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIT #0031/01 0211609
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P 211609Z JAN 10
FM AMCONSUL ISTANBUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9468
INFO RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

S E C R E T ISTANBUL 000031 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON FOR MURRAY; BERLIN FOR ROSENSTOCK-STILLER; BAKU FOR 
MCCRENSKY; ASHGABAT FOR TANGBORN; BAGHDAD FOR POPAL AND 
HUBAH; DUBAI FOR IRPO 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/21/2040 
TAGS: PREF PREL PGIV PINS PHUM TU IR
SUBJECT: IRANIAN POLITICS:  MOUSAVI'S LAWYER REQUESTS USG 
HELP 
 
Classified By: Acting Principal Officer Win Dayton; Reasin 1.5 (d). 
 
¶1.  (S) Summary:  We met January 20 with Dr. Ardashir 
Arjomand, a legal advisor to Iranian opposition leader 
Mir-Hossein Mousavi, who fled Iran after being detained in 
the post-June crackdown against reformists.  Ardashir entered 
Turkey illegally but he holds a valid French residency 
permit.  He asked for USG help in ensuring his safe onward 
travel either to France or the U.S.  We explained that the 
USG cannot give any help inconsistent with Turkish or U.S. 
laws and urged him to consider registering with UNHCR as an 
asylum-seeker, a suggestion he rejected for fear that Turkey 
would send him back to Iran.  Regarding Iran's internal 
dynamics Dr. Ardashir predicted that opposition protests on 
February 11 will be the largest yet seen, and that regime 
repression against them will be met with a level of civil 
disobedience that will "shock" the regime.  He also said that 
Mousavi expects to be arrested soon, possibly before February 
11, but that the Green Movement will continue to grow in 
strength as a civil rights movement.  (Comment:  We are less 
convinced than Dr. Arjomand that the GOT would send him back 
to Iran if his presence here became known, especially if he 
registers first with UNHCR.  Indeed, given the illegal nature 
of his arrival here we believe the only reasonable means of 
facilitating his departure would be via UNHCR processing him 
as a refugee for onward resettlement.  Absent other 
instructions from Washington, we will stay in contact with 
him and continue to encourage him to pursue the UNHCR 
process. End Comment and Summary.) 
 
¶2.  (S) ConGen Istanbul's NEA Iran Watcher met January 20 in 
Istanbul with Dr. Ardashir Amir Arjomand (please protect), an 
Iranian law professor and campaign legal advisor to Iranian 
presidential opposition candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi.  Dr. 
Arjomand fled Iran and entered Turkey illegally on January 7 
after having been arrested and detained in December for 
participating in opposition protests and then receiving a 
warning that he was about to be re-arrested.  He told us that 
he paid an Iranian trafficker several thousand dollars to 
escort him over the mountains of northwestern Iran into 
southeastern Turkey, after which he made his way to Istanbul. 
 The trafficker also printed a fake Turkish entry stamp in 
his passport.  We were informed of Dr. Arjomand's presence in 
Istanbul by several associates of his, including his 
Iranian-American cousin (a U.S.-based professor) who 
contacted the Department and an Amnesty International 
representative in London who contacted us in Istanbul. 
 
¶3.  (S) Dr. Arjomand has a valid French residency permit.  As 
a first course of action he plans to seek French Consulate 
(Istanbul) assistance in arranging for a French visa 
interview for his wife and children, who currently remain in 
hiding in Iran but are making arrangements to come to Turkey. 
 However, Dr. Arjomand told us he is concerned that if and 
when he tries to exit Turkey border control officials may 
spot his fake entry stamp and detain him, in which case he 
believes they would likely send him back to Iran rather than 
either allow him to continue on to France or allow him to 
stay in Turkey to register as a refugee.  He asked if the USG 
might be willing and able either to help him and his family 
leave Turkey without going through official Turkish passport 
controls, or serve as intermediaries with the Turkish 
government to ensure the GOT does not send them back to Iran. 
 He also noted that he eventually wants to settle in the 
United States rather than France, as his wife and children 
speak some English but no French. 
 
¶4.  (S) We encouraged him to stay in contact with the French 
Consulate regarding French visas for his family, and we 
understand the French Embassy in Washington has also been 
alerted to the case.  We explained that the USG cannot take 
any steps to help him in any way inconsistent with Turkish or 
U.S. laws.  We encouraged him to consider registering as soon 
as possible with UNHCR for refugee status, which would afford 
him more legal protection to stay in Turkey and to preclude 
refoulement to Iran than he currently has.  Dr. Arjomand 
underscored that he does not want to register with UNHCR in 
Turkey because he is concerned that once UNHCR notifies the 
Turkish government of his presence, Turkey will take steps to 
send him back to Iran.  We explained that his current 
circumstances would make it very difficult to qualify for a 
non-immigrant visa to the U.S., and agreed to send his 
request for USG assistance back to Washington. 
 
The Green Movement:  "22 Bahman (February 11) Will Shock the 
Regime." 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
¶5. (S) Asked his view of the near-term future of the Iranian 
opposition movement, Dr. Arjomand said that Mousavi and other 
Green Movement leaders have been calling on supporters to 
take to the streets in the largest numbers yet seen, on 
February 11 (22 Bahman), the official anniversary of Iran's 
Islamic Revolution.  He predicted that the regime will use 
significant force against the protesters, but that the size, 
courage, and commitment of the protesters to use civil 
disobedience tactics in the face of regime efforts to crush 
them, will "shock" the regime. 
 
¶6.  (S) Dr. Arjomand said that Mousavi and other opposition 
leaders are resigned to the likelihood that they will be 
arrested soon, probably before the February 11 
demonstrations, and that some of them may be tortured and 
killed while in detention.  But the movement will continue, 
he insisted, acknowledging that many of its supporters are 
not marching out of support for Mousavi or even out of anger 
that their votes were stolen, but rather marching for 
themselves, to demand that the regime allow its people to 
enjoy the fundamental human rights and civil rights enshrined 
in Iran's own constitution.  "It is both a political movement 
and a civil rights movement", he explained, noting that while 
Iran's politics always shift with the wind, the population's 
unbending demand that the regime respect and protect their 
civil rights will ensure the movement persists.  Dr. Arjomand 
was unwilling to speculate about the regime's near-term or 
mid-term future, other than to assess that the results and 
aftermath of Iran's June elections have "completely broken" 
the carefully-constructed social contract between the Islamic 
Republic and Iran's population. 
 
¶7.  (S) Asked what role the international community and 
United States could usefully play, he said the current 
approach, of highlighting the regime's human rights failures 
but otherwise "staying out of our domestic fight", was 
correct.  "Don't take the opposition's side openly", he 
cautioned, as that would give the regime the concrete 
evidence it currently lacks that Mousavi and other leaders 
are committing "espionage."  Asked if his own desire to 
resettle eventually in the U.S. might taint Mousavi by 
association, he said that by the time circumstances might 
allow him to settle in the United States, "my whereabouts 
won't matter."  He underscored that in the near-term he hopes 
to keep his presence in Turkey a secret and hopes to get 
himself and his family to France, which has a long and 
storied history of giving shelter to Iranian oppositionists. 
 
Comment 
------ 
 
¶8.  (S) We are less convinced than Dr. Arjomand that the 
Turkish government would immediately try to expel him back to 
Iran once his presence here becomes known, especially if he 
registers first with UNHCR as an asylum-seeker.  Indeed, 
given the illegal circumstances of his entry into Turkey we 
assess that the only reasonable means of facilitating his 
onward departure (whether to France or the United States) 
would be with UNHCR assistance, processing him as a refugee 
in need of onward resettlement.  Absent other instructions 
from Washington, we will stay in contact with Dr. Arjomand 
and continue to encourage him to pursue the UNHCR process. 
DAYTON