VZCZCXRO8345
PP RUEHIK
DE RUEHDF #0004/01 0261620
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P R 261620Z JAN 10
FM AMCONSUL DUSSELDORF
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0260
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE
RUEHDF/AMCONSUL DUSSELDORF 0278

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSSELDORF 000004 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL GM AF
SUBJECT: FEARS OF AFGHANISTAN DEBATE EMERGE MONTHS BEFORE NRW STATE 
ELECTIONS 
 
DUSSELDORF 00000004  001.3 OF 002 
 
 
¶1.  (U) Summary: North Rhine-Westphalia Party leaders for the 
governing Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Free Democratic 
Party (FDP) coalition fear the issue of sending more troops to 
Afghanistan could hurt their chances in the May 2010 state 
elections if the opposition or the Left Party makes this an 
issue in their campaigns.  The opposition parties, the Social 
Democratic Party (SPD) and the Greens, however, have yet to make 
any noise about Afghanistan.  The NRW Left Party aims to cross 
the five percent threshold and enter the NRW Landtag and could 
raise populist themes such as withdrawal from Afghanistan to 
gain support.  If the CDU-FDP loses its majority in NRW, this 
would cost the national CDU-FDP governing coalition its majority 
in the Bundesrat and would not bode well for the CDU and FDP in 
other upcoming state elections.  End Summary. 
 
 
 
CDU: Hopes to Keep Focus on State Issues 
 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Party leaders from the CDU, FDP, SPD and Greens all 
discussed the upcoming May 9 NRW state parliament election, 
their platforms and their chances for success in various 
meetings with ConOffs on January 21.  While all four sets of 
party leaders agreed that education reform, employment, and 
communal finances are priority issues for their constituents, 
CDU Secretary-General Hendrik Wuest emphasized that Afghanistan 
could be the deciding factor in the election if it became a 
campaign issue.  If the SPD, the Greens, and/or the Left Party 
come out hard against increasing the German military deployment 
in Afghanistan and call for an exit strategy, the results would 
be "a catastrophe" for the governing CDU-FDP coalition, Wuest 
stated.  Because of that, Wuest said, the CDU is happy to 
continue engaging the opposition on the economy and education, 
with the clear implication that they do not want the SPD and 
Greens to focus on anything else.  Wuest believes strongly that 
the CDU can win on these issues, but not on Afghanistan. 
(COMMENT: Wuest may be overstating the issue, given more recent 
developments in the SPD at the national level.  During the SPD's 
January 22 Conference on Afghanistan, SPD party leaders did not 
rule out a troop increase and also acknowledged that their 
previous distinction between combat troops and trainers does not 
reflect the new partnering concept.  END COMMENT.) 
 
 
 
State Opposition Now Focusing on Local Themes 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) SPD Deputy Floor Leader Ralf Jaeger did not bring up 
Afghanistan as one of the SPD's three primary campaign issues, 
but rather focused on education reform, job creation and fixing 
NRW communal finances.  When asked by Conoffs about the issue of 
the deployment in Afghanistan, however, Jaeger said that the SPD 
needs to be careful when considering future commitments by 
Germany.  The Greens had a similar election theme agenda as the 
SPD, focusing on environmental, educational and economic issues, 
and did not think Afghanistan would play a major issue in NRW. 
The NRW SPD and Greens, however, may be hesitant to bring up 
Afghanistan, since the German presence there was initiated under 
an SPD-Greens national coalition government. 
 
 
 
¶4. (SBU)  The FDP leaders, NRW Interior Minister Ingo Wolf and 
Landtag Vice-President Angela Freimuth, both expressed strong 
skepticism about the ongoing mission in Afghanistan.  They 
agreed that if the opposition or Left Party turns the NRW 
campaign into a referendum on Afghanistan, the CDU and FDP could 
be in trouble.   Both noted in particular the German public's 
negative attitude toward the deployment in Afghanistan and 
historically-grounded reluctance to favor military deployments 
in general. 
 
 
 
Comment 
 
------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) The NRW state election is increasingly being referred 
to as a "mini Bundestag election."  It is the only local German 
election in 2010, with the Bundesrat majority hanging in the 
balance.  As a result, national political leaders are likely 
increasingly to involve themselves in the NRW campaign; local 
party leaders have already told us they have more offers from 
 
DUSSELDORF 00000004  002.3 OF 002 
 
 
national figures than they can field.  With such high profile 
national attention, local leaders could risk losing control of 
the direction of the debate.  The CDU and FDP in NRW and on the 
national level are clearly aware that there would be negative 
results for them politically if Afghanistan becomes a major 
theme closer to the election.  At least on the national level, 
these parties may seek closure on the issue of additional troops 
to Afghanistan soon after the January 28 Afghanistan Conference 
to avoid the risk of the issue being debated shortly before the 
NRW elections.  With the Left Party in NRW currently polling at 
the five percent mark, they stand to gain the most from a debate 
on Afghanistan.  Left Party Chairman Oskar Lafontaine's decision 
to leave national politics could distract the party for the time 
being, but not for long.  They sense how close they are to 
entering the Landtag in this populous western state, and if the 
party shows any signs of weakening in the NRW polls, it could 
resort to tough tactics on Afghanistan to pull through.  End 
comment. 
 
 
 
¶6.  (U) This message was coordinated with Embassy Berlin. 
WEINER