VZCZCXRO2715
RR RUEHDBU
DE RUEHDBU #0095/01 0200925
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
R 200925Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1152
INFO RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL 0391
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 0143
RUEHDBU/AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE 2543

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 DUSHANBE 000095 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  1/20/2020 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM ECON PINR TI
SUBJECT: TAVILDARA - THE MOST STABLE PLACE ON EARTH? 
 
REF: A) 09 DUSHANBE 845; B) 09 DUSHANBE 714; C) 09 DUSHANBE 1016 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Ken Gross, Ambassador, EXEC, DoS. 
REASON: 1.4 (b), (d) 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY:  During a visit to the Tavildara District, scene 
of fighting between government forces and militants from 
May-July 2009, contacts described the area as stable and 
identified the absence of international development groups and 
lack of jobs, rather than security concerns, as the main 
problems facing the area.  Officials claimed all fighters 
involved in May-July fighting in remote mountain areas were 
either "liquidated" or in government custody and declared that 
opposition groups capable of mounting an attack were destroyed. 
Though most of the local population opposed the militants in 
2009, unemployment, isolation, and poverty continue to make 
Tavildara residents vulnerable to extremist appeals. END SUMMARY 
 
 
 
ALL IS QUIET ON THE TAVILDARA FRONT 
 
 
 
¶2. (SBU) January 13-14, Emboffs visited the rugged, sparsely 
populated Tavildara district, scene of fighting between 
government forces and armed militants during summer 2009.  Along 
the road to Tavildara town, which in places is a dirt track as 
it skirts mountain gorges, there were few cars and no government 
security checkpoints.  Most mountain homes were made of mud or 
rocks, with a few modern, brick structures standing out. 
Perched on the edge of Tavildara town, a stronghold of the 
United Tajik Opposition (UTO) during the Tajik civil war, is the 
palatial, three story mansion of the late Mirzo Ziyoev.  Former 
commander and chief of the UTO and, after the civil war Minister 
of Emergency Situations, Ziyoev ran Tavildara as his fiefdom 
until he was shot dead in July 2009.  His mansion is now Tajik 
government property. 
 
 
 
¶3. (S) District Chairman Himmatsho Ghairatov said Tavildara had 
been calm and stable since last summer, when former members of 
the UTO returned to the district from Afghanistan, linking up 
with "Daghestanis and Tartars" who infiltrated the district from 
the north.  The group was attempting to "influence the 
government" by demanding their own "sphere of influence" in the 
area.  "Before launching operations, we entered talks with them 
to ask them to leave.  They didn't agree and they decided to 
attack the district center.  They were engaged by security 
forces and stopped."  Ghairatov demurred from further 
speculation on the militants' objective, since "both of their 
leaders", whom he identified as Mirzo Ziyoev and Nemat Azizov, 
were dead.  Ghairatov said it was unclear whether Mullah 
Abdullah Rahimov was among the 2009 militants. 
 
 
 
¶4. (S) NOTE:  Mullah Abdullah was widely considered the leader 
of the armed group and probably was in Tajikistan during the 
fighting.  His current whereabouts are unknown.  Some sensitive 
Embassy sources claimed that he was apprehended, some said that 
he fled to Uzbekistan, and others claimed he returned to 
Afghanistan.  END NOTE. 
 
 
 
¶5. (C) Chief of the Tavildara District office of the State 
Committee for National Security (GKNB) Asliddin Abdulloev, whose 
office, unlike the District Administrator's, had a computer, 
proper heat, and modern communication equipment, said the 
government "liquidated or imprisoned" all belligerents involved 
in the fighting.  "We completely destroyed the forces that could 
launch such an attack."  Abdulloev refused to provide additional 
information on the 2009 fighting as "legal cases are ongoing." 
The biggest problem in the district now was not security 
concerns, but rather the absence of foreign aid organizations. 
"If they are too afraid to work here (because of last summer's 
fighting), then they should have pulled out of Afghanistan a 
long time ago." 
 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) The Chief of Tavildara District Police, Colonel 
Kurbanali Rahimov, said that far from being dangerous, Tavildara 
is "the stablest place in the world... the only place in the 
world where nothing ever happens.  There is no robbery, no 
theft, no rape, nothing!"  Most of Tavildara's visitors were 
tourists passing through en route to Gorno Badakhshan Autonomous 
Oblast (GBAO).  Rahimov said that none of the approximately 
2,500-3000 foreign tourists who drive through Tavildara each 
year on their way to Gorno Badakhsan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO) 
have experienced problems with the local population as they pass 
through the district. 
 
DUSHANBE 00000095  002 OF 003 
 
 
 
 
 
LOCAL POPULATION:  "SICK OF CONFLICT" 
 
 
 
¶7. (C) The local population is "sick of conflict" and would 
oppose any attempt to instigate insurrection, according to Abdu 
Salom Bafor, the Imam Khatib of Tavildara's central mosque. 
Other Embassy sources, however, suggest that while Tavildarans 
did not join the militants, many were pleased when the 
foreigners came into town to buy local foodstuffs.  The 
population was largely unaffected by the 2009 fighting, which 
mostly occurred in the mountains.  The head of the Islamic 
Renaissance Party's (IRPT) Tavildara branch, Mullo Pirmahmad, 
concurred, noted that he was able to drive normally within the 
district even during the height of the fighting, which occurred 
in unpopulated areas between Tavildara and Darvaz districts. 
After the fighting, Pirmahmed said "people were afraid that 
villages would be searched," but "nothing happened."  He 
underlined that "none of the people involved were affiliated 
with the IRPT." 
 
 
 
¶8. (S) Some Tavildarans are angry about the government's claim 
that militants, rather than government forces, shot and killed 
Ziyoev, according to Jannati Tulaev, local representative of the 
Aga Khan Mountain Societies Development Support Program (MSDSP). 
 It is unclear whether Ziyoev actually was a leader of the June 
2009 militant group.  Most locals doubted the official story and 
believed a government soldier assassinated Ziyoev, who "has many 
supporters in the area angry about the circumstances of his 
death, though they would never express this openly."  Tulaev 
speculated that the government accused Ziyoev of cooperating 
with the 2009 militants as an excuse to get rid of him. 
 
 
 
¶9. (SBU) Imam Bafor said mosque attendance is up and about 200 
people attend his Friday prayers, but he has not seen a rise in 
extremist ideology.  "If someone from the outside wants to 
preach, we find out who they are and exactly what they want to 
preach before we let them."  The Ministry of Culture 
representative at the district administrator's office sends 
recommendations to Bafor for his Friday prayer topics.  The Imam 
said he uses some of them "but I base my preaching only on what 
is found in the Koran."  He hasn't seen a rise in Salafism or 
Islamic fundamentalism, nor have missionaries from the 
Jamaat-i-Tabligh Islamic fundamentalist group preached in the 
area. 
 
 
 
HUNGRY FOR ASSISTANCE 
 
 
 
¶10. (SBU) Tavildara is a remote region, even by Tajik standards, 
and was among the hardest hit during the Tajik civil war. 
Though the second largest district in the country in area, there 
is not a single factory.  Its economy has stagnated, residents 
barter their home-grown goods, and up to 60% of its men go to 
Russia for seasonal work.  Imam Bafor said joblessness was the 
chief concern of his mosque attendees, particularly during the 
winter.  "Every family sends at least one member to Russia. 
Some send three or four.  Some men get cheated while in Russia 
and return with nothing."  Remittances are down and many men 
have returned with little to show for their labors.  Even those 
who have returned with nothing plan to try their luck in Russia 
again because there are no opportunities to make money at home. 
 
 
 
¶11. (SBU) Tavildara district residents survive through 
subsistence farming, cattle-breeding, and bee-keeping.  The 
international assistance that flowed to Tavildara after the 
civil war has largely dried up and only one NGO, the MSDSP, has 
an office in the district.  Mercy Corps will begin implementing 
USAID community development projects in two Tavildara "jamoats" 
in the spring.  A Japanese government organic farming program 
supports two greenhouses.  Officials cite tourism as an area for 
economic development, but there is no local know-how in 
developing tourism infrastructure.  Although Tavildara's 
location on a mountain river could make it a destination in its 
own right, the MSDSP representative suggested a hotel be built 
"for tourists on their way to GBAO." 
 
 
 
DUSHANBE 00000095  003 OF 003 
 
 
 
¶12. (U) The education system lacks qualified teachers of all 
subjects, particularly English and Russian, according to Tulaev. 
 Not all village children have access to schools due to the 
remoteness of some settlements.  The district administrator said 
the government delayed construction of several new schools 
because of the economic crisis (as well as postponed 
construction of a new "House of Culture" and sports stadium). 
Many students, especially girls, leave school after the ninth 
grade (highest compulsory level of schooling) because parents do 
not see any utility in education. 
 
 
 
¶13. (C) COMMENT:  Though the government seems, for now, to have 
control over security in the Tavildara district, prospects for 
long-term stability have not improved because the government has 
not offered the population legitimate means for economic 
development.  The Tajik government was able to put down the 2009 
incursion because the militants did not receive popular support, 
but with up to 60% of the working age men in Russia potential 
recruits were out of the country anyway.  With a crumbling Tajik 
education system, these Tavildarans working in Russia 
increasingly will lack the language skills to defend their 
rights to fair pay.  With remittances from Russia declining due 
to the economic crisis and a lack of investment by the Tajik 
government in local infrastructure projects, the Tavildaran 
population will remain vulnerable to offers from militants, drug 
traffickers, or regional strongmen like Mirzo Ziyoev who have 
hard currency to offer.  Unfortunately, with the government's 
single-minded focus on building the Roghun hydroelectric dam, it 
is unlikely that any development support is forthcoming from 
Dushanbe.  END COMMENT. 
GROSS