VZCZCXRO6566
PP RUEHLN RUEHSK RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHDBU #0052/01 0130902
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 130902Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1128
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 0381
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING PRIORITY 0135
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC
RUEHDBU/AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE 2462

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 DUSHANBE 000052 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EFIN PHUM ENRG EINV TI
SUBJECT: DAM IF YOU DO, DAMNED IF YOU DON'T: ROGHUN PRESSURE MOUNTS 
 
REF: DUSHANBE 1443 
 
DUSHANBE 00000052  001.2 OF 004 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  On January 6, the Tajik government 
inaugurated nationwide sales of shares in the Roghun 
hydroelectric dam project, using extortion and intimidation to 
pressure individuals and organizations to buy stock.  As part of 
an unprecedented multi-media campaign, all four state television 
stations and nearly all Tajik print media reported mass 
purchases of Roghun stock as voluntary acts of patriotism.  In 
fact, however, the government has issued fundraising targets to 
public and private employers; to meet these quotas, employers 
ordered their staff to make purchases that often far exceed 
their monthly salaries or risk being fired.  The government has 
leaned hardest on state employees, including doctors and 
teachers, further corrupting the education system as professors 
sell grades to students in exchange for Roghun stock purchases. 
But no one is exempt:  businesses, farmers, pensioners, 
hospitals, and even orphanages are being shaken down. 
International donors are concerned not only that the Roghun 
campaign violates ethical rules, but that it endangers 
Tajikistan's macroeconomic stability.  So far, most people 
appear to be toeing the line, in part because they agree that it 
is important to build Roghun.  But in private many Tajiks are 
furious that Tajikistan's billionaire president is wringing 
every last penny out of his dirt-poor citizens.  END SUMMARY 
 
IT'S NOT A WONDERFUL LIFE... 
 
¶2. (SBU) On January 6, shares in the Roghun hydroelectric dam 
went on sale across Tajikistan at special "Amonotbonk" counters. 
 In a bizarre reversal of the bank run scene from "It's a 
Wonderful Life," national television larded the airwaves with 
footage of Tajik citizens clambering over each other to give 
their money TO the bank.  Happy stock owners recited poems about 
Roghun to the cameras as they proudly grasped their stock 
certificates.  State media followed up with music video paeans 
to the dam, heroic images of Roghun builders, and aerial footage 
of a column of trucks en route to the construction site as if 
off to war.  Images were straight out of Soviet central casting, 
including footage of President Rahmon in deep conversation with 
Roghun craftsmen, apparently discussing details about the 
masonry.  One could almost hear him exhorting, "Comrades, this 
grout must be thicker!"  The media reported many firsts:  the 
first shares bought in Khatlon Province (by the regional 
chairman), the first purchase made in Dushanbe (by the Mayor), 
and the first child named after Roghun -- Roghunshoh Bobokhonov, 
born January 6 in the village of Gulkhona in Sughd Province; the 
first girl born in Yovon District was named Sahmiya, or "Share," 
i.e., of stock. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Government sources triumphantly announced that, in 
Dushanbe alone, citizens bought $92 million in Roghun shares on 
the first day of sale.  In the second-largest city, Khujand, the 
government announced that $4.7 million in shares were sold.  If 
the government's figures are correct, on average every man, 
woman, and child in Dushanbe contributed more than $100 on the 
first day of sales alone.  Comment:  While the government was 
able to wring a significant amount of money from the population 
on January 6, it is unfathomable that Dushanbe residents ponied 
up $92 million out of thin air.  In all likelihood the 
government leaned on Tajikistan's few truly wealthy individuals 
to repatriate some of their offshore funds.  The government 
itself may have engaged in some creative bank transfers to pad 
the Roghun pot.  End comment. 
 
SHAKEDOWN:  STUDENTS BUY GRADES, PROFESSORS BUY JOB SECURITY 
 
¶4. (SBU) To impel further Roghun stock sales, officials put the 
screws to those most reliant on state institutions (and thus 
most vulnerable to state pressure):  government employees, 
teachers, doctors, and students.  The media spun contributions 
from these institutions as acts of patriotism.  Asia-Plus 
reported that staff at the Tajik State University of Commerce 
bought 200,000 somoni in shares on January 6.  In interviews the 
new stockholders dutifully hit on the government's key talking 
points:  they are not only contributing to Roghun, they are 
proud owners of valuable shares.  Tajik National University 
(TNU) is encouraging its staff to contribute directly through 
the university rather than buying shares individually so that 
TNU receives credit for the totals. 
 
¶5. (SBU) These sales are nowhere near voluntary, according to 
numerous sources.  A contact at TNU said university management 
"kindly asked" every professor to buy at least 500 somoni in 
shares.  Staff had already "volunteered" to surrender a day's 
salary, which netted a 20,000 somoni contribution in December. 
Another contact told us that after donating 500 somoni in 
 
DUSHANBE 00000052  002.2 OF 004 
 
 
December, his dean asked him to contribute another 500 somoni in 
January.  When he said he did not have the money, the dean said 
it was no problem; the university could simply deduct it from 
the professor's next paycheck.  The rector of the university, 
Mumindzhon Sharifov, announced his own 10,000 somoni purchase of 
Roghun shares to set a positive example for his staff. 
Management of Tajikistan's State Medical University directed 
employees to make even higher contributions -- 2,000 somoni for 
professors and 3,000 for heads of department.  Many teachers 
were told that a refusal to volunteer would result in their 
firing. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Throughout the country, the fundraising scheme followed 
a top-down approach.  The government allegedly set targets for 
major institutions, such as ministries, universities, and large 
companies.  University rectors set targets for deans, who set 
targets for teachers, who set targets for students.  A Tajik 
working for a foreign assistance mission here said the whole 
exercise felt like it came out of the Soviet playbook, where 
institutions competed with one another to pick the most cotton, 
or, in this case, to buy the most Roghun shares.  At the bottom 
were the students, forced to "volunteer" to buy at least 100 
somoni each in shares.  Professors warned students at TNU and 
Russian Tajik Slavonic University that if they failed to present 
a share certificate bearing their full name, they would not be 
allowed to take their course exams.  Students from other 
Universities, including Dushanbe Medical University, shared 
similar accounts.  As an added incentive, students could present 
their stock certificate for better grades.  A certificate for 
300 somoni in shares reportedly buys a "3" (a passing grade 
roughly equivalent to a "C" in the American system), while 400 
somoni yields a "4," or "B."  A student told us her professor 
told her not even to bother showing up at the exam; her 500 
somoni contribution had already won her a "5." 
 
PRESSURE SUBTLE AND NOT SO SUBTLE 
 
¶7. (SBU) While many Tajiks report they have been openly told 
they will be fired if they do not contribute, for some the 
pressure has been more subtle.  A student who was warned he 
would not be allowed to take his exams without contributing 100 
somoni showed up for his tests without paying.  His professor 
allowed him to sit for the exam, but the dean dropped by to 
remind him that the head of the university had ordered all 
students to purchase shares.  When the student directly asked if 
the purchase was compulsory, the dean said "no."  The student 
nevertheless expected to hear frequent and unsubtle reminders 
that he is required to buy shares.  A professor said she refused 
to browbeat her students into paying, but she anticipated 
difficulties with her administration.  Another professor at TNU 
told us he was more comfortable giving money to Roghun after the 
rector signed a memorandum from the university's academic senate 
agreeing to buy back shares if employees needed money for a 
wedding, an operation, or other urgent expense.  For every such 
story, however, there is another one in which people were 
unequivocally forced to pay. 
 
DOCTORS AND NURSES ASKED TO TURN AND COUGH UP 
 
¶8. (SBU) Officials continue to pressure medical professionals 
from across the country, already dismally paid, into 
contributing to Roghun.  In December, the Dushanbe City Medical 
Center deducted three days' salary from its staff without their 
consent.  In January, officials told doctors at the same 
institution they must contribute 1,000-1,500 somoni per person 
to Roghun within the next year.  The first installment of 500 
somoni was due immediately.  Several days later, hospital 
management doubled that amount.  The mother of an embassy staff 
member, a doctor who earns 220 somoni per month, said unless she 
shows her boss a stock certificate in her name for 1,000 somoni, 
she has been told she will be fired.  The orders apparently come 
directly from the Ministry of Health.  Her sister, an 
administrator at the hospital, has been ordered to buy 5,000 
somoni in shares.  Doctors in Khujand were told they needed to 
purchase 5,000 somoni in shares, and nurses were asked to 
contribute 100 somoni. 
 
¶9. (SBU) On January 8, the Ministry of Health requested that 
Tajiks working for NGOs and international partners, including 
USAID and UNDP, attend a meeting about Roghun.  At the meeting, 
officials said the government assigned the Ministry an overall 
fundraising target; while it had raised a percentage of this 
total from its own workers, it needed funds from medical 
contacts outside the Ministry to achieve its goal.  Officials 
did not order anyone to contribute to the cause, but urged 
attendees to help fund the dam in the Ministry's name. 
 
DUSHANBE 00000052  003.2 OF 004 
 
 
According to numerous reports from contacts working with 
government agencies, this general pattern has been the same 
across ministries:  unable to reach their assigned targets by 
pressuring their own staff, they are widening their net to 
include individuals who work with the ministry.  The dragnet has 
included staff at foreign embassies, including that of the 
United States, who work with colleagues at various ministries. 
Our American Corner coordinators have also been repeatedly hit 
up by their host institutions and government officials who just 
happen to come by the Corner to check out books. 
 
TAJIK DIPLOMATS AND STATE ENTERPRISES ASKED TO GIVE IT UP 
 
¶10. (U) Tajiks outside of Tajikistan are not exempt.  Ministry 
of Foreign Affairs employees, including foreign diplomats 
abroad, reportedly bought shares worth 589,110 somoni on the 
first day of sales.  These purchases came on top of earlier 
donations made directly to Roghun's bank accounts (reftel).  The 
Tajik Embassy in Beijing spent 47,000 somoni, with the 
Ambassador proudly declaring, "The acquisition of Roghun shares 
and contribution to the acceleration of its construction is the 
duty of every patriotic citizen of our country, no matter where 
he lives at the present time." 
 
¶11. (U) State-owned enterprises have leapt over themselves to 
report contributions to Roghun.  The fact that many of these 
companies have only recently been complaining about a shortage 
of cash has raised some eyebrows.  The Talco aluminum plant, 
Tajikistan's largest exporter and the alleged source of much of 
the President's personal wealth, says it does not have the money 
to repay debts to state electricity provider Barqi Tojik 
totaling $30 million.  As a result, Barqi Tojik has fallen 
behind on its payments to the Sangtuda-1 hydropower station, 
which has cut production, leaving Tajik homes that much darker. 
Yet Talco was apparently solvent enough to purchase $5 million 
in Roghun shares last week and commit to increasing the total to 
$25 million.  Talco employees have so far bought shares worth an 
additional $4 million. 
 
PRIVATE SECTOR ALSO PRESSURED 
 
¶12. (SBU) Private firms and their employees scrambled to 
demonstrate their loyalty to the cause.  Many had already made 
"pre-emptive" contributions to Roghun before shares went on 
sale.  An Embassy employee recounted how his son, who runs a 
small private company, contributed 500 somoni directly to the 
state bank account, while his employees sent 300 somoni each. 
The son and his employees were worried that if they did not make 
these contributions the company would run into difficulties with 
state officials.  Banks across the country have made 
particularly large and public contributions.  Chairman of the 
Tojiksodirot Bank's Supervisory Board, Todzhiddin Pirov, bought 
shares worth 260,000 somoni out of his personal budget.  He said 
the bank's employees would buy shares worth an additional $1 
million, and the bank itself would purchase $5 million in funds. 
 Employees at Agroinvestbonk reportedly bought shares worth over 
2.5 million somoni on January 6.  The bank itself is said to be 
preparing a separate contribution.  Other banks were making 
similar plans.  At markets administrators reportedly are 
collecting set amounts from all suppliers and stallholders. 
 
MEDIA MOSTLY JOINS IN THE BUY ROGHUN REFRAIN 
 
¶13. (SBU) State and independent media have echoed the 
government's calls to buy Roghun shares, editorializing the need 
to make stock purchases and lionizing individuals who made 
notable contributions.  Only one publication, the on-line 
avesta.tj, criticized the compulsory sales in an article 
entitled "There almost wasn't any rape," which disputed the 
notion that students, teachers, and doctors purchased stocks 
voluntarily.  The compulsory purchases, it said, violated the 
President's intentions.  The article did not, however, criticize 
the Roghun drive itself.  The same website announced it would 
raise money for the Roghun project through its advertising 
space.  Other journalists have privately expressed concerns 
about the Roghun campaign and post will monitor future coverage 
to report any emerging criticism. 
 
INTERNATIONAL REPERCUSSIONS 
 
¶14. (SBU) International donors are expressing concern that the 
Roghun campaign may violate the terms of some of their 
assistance.  In the wake of the global financial crisis, donors 
have required the government to meet certain minimum 
expenditures in the social sector.  They expressed concern that 
the Roghun "contributions" taken from teachers, doctors, and 
 
DUSHANBE 00000052  004.2 OF 004 
 
 
other state employees effectively decrease the state's 
allocation to these sectors -- the government is essentially 
giving to the social sector with one hand while taking with the 
other.  There are concerns as well about the macroeconomic 
implications of removing such a large amount of cash from the 
population, in particular increasing their vulnerability to 
future shocks, including a further drop in remittances from 
Russia. 
 
¶15. (SBU) COMMENT:  There is undeniable public support for 
Roghun, especially since Uzbekistan cut energy exports to 
Tajikistan, and many Tajiks believe the government's promise 
that building the dam will herald a new age of energy security 
and prosperity.  But the government risks killing this goodwill 
with its intimidation and extortion of already impoverished 
Tajiks.  The Roghun campaign demonstrates yet again that Rahmon 
rules Tajikistan as he did the collective farm in Kulob where he 
got his start, driving his employees to meet ever higher targets 
while pocketing many of the proceeds.  The campaign underlines 
the miserable state of the country's education and medical 
systems:  doctors and teachers may be deployed to pick cotton or 
directed to extract money from their students, depending on the 
government's needs of the day. 
 
¶16. (SBU) COMMENT CONTINUED:  Though many Tajiks are coughing up 
their last somoni with a sigh and shrug, some are seething with 
anger at the government shakedown.  Even supporters of the 
campaign wonder whose pockets the money will ultimately line. 
The bank in which the proceeds are deposited is controlled by 
presidential brother-in-law Hassan Asadullozoda, and the 
government has not announced any measures for overseeing how the 
funds are used.  Rahmon, whom everyone knows to be a 
multi-billionaire through his stake in state-owned enterprises 
such as Talco, has not publicly announced any contribution. 
Making such an announcement might actually be hazardous for him: 
 it would be an admission that he is far richer than he should 
be.  Similarly, the Mayor of Dushanbe has trumpeted his share 
purchase but refused to say how much he bought.  For now, no 
political leaders have challenged the government on the Roghun 
campaign, and if recent history is any guide -- for instance the 
response to the brutal winter of 2007-08 never coalesced into 
political grievances -- none are likely to do so.  But as the 
government continues to turn Tajiks upside down and shake them 
for loose change, the question remains:  How much can Tajiks 
take?  END COMMENT. 
GROSS